GENERAL-CIRCULATION-MODEL SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE SNOWPACK IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western U.S. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.     

雪冰中持久性有机污染物的研究进展

雪冰是温带和极地生态系统中最重要的环境组份,它们不仅影响了能量平衡和水循环,而且也能直接影响当地、区域以及全球环境范围内的化学行为。降雪能很有效地从大气中清除颗粒和气相的POPs。本文简要介绍了雪冰环境中持久性有机污染物研究的科学意义,着重综述了POPs在极地和高海拔地区雪冰中的环境化学行为和雪冰中POPs的历史环境记录,并讨论了雪冰中POPs浓度的不确定性。持久性有机污染物从大气到冰川的过程并不容易理解,半挥发性有机化合物在沉积后的浓度存在不确定性。有机物沉积在积雪中后,随着积雪的老化和变形,它们能够随着融水迁移或者又挥发到大气中。全文最后对未来雪冰中POPs的研究需要进行了展望,并提出四点今后需加强研究的内容。由于青藏高原位于人类居住的低纬度高海拔地区,可能在POPs全球输送过程中起到重要的作用,今后需加强青藏高原地区雪冰中持久性有机污染物的研究;有机污染物在雪冰中主要是通过光化学反应进行转化,雪冰中有机污染物的光化学反应机理研究必须引起重视;随着雪冰样品前处理和分析测试技术的提高,将会推动雪冰中痕量POPs的环境变化记录研究的发展;通过建立模型模拟预算和评价POPs在积雪中的物理化学行为,也可以利用模型模拟POPs在老雪中的命运,确定其在融水中成比例蒸发和渗浸的速率。     

Trends in Raindrop Kinetic Energy with Modeled Climate Warming in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Two means by which climate change may increase surface soil erosion in mountainous terrain are: (1) increasing the frequency of extreme rainfall events and (2) decreasing the duration of snow cover on bare soil. We used output from four general circulation models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas trajectories to produce a suite of hydrologic variables at a daily time‐step for historic and projected 21st Century conditions. We statistically disaggregated the daily rainfall to hourly, using hourly rainfall from a network of nine weather stations in the Tahoe Basin, and filtered out rain falling on a snowpack. We applied published equations to convert hourly intensity to raindrop kinetic energy (KE) for each day and grid cell in the Basin, averaged across grid cells, and created time series of total annual and maximum annual hourly kinetic energy (TKE and MKE) on snow‐free ground. Using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, we calculated the significance of long‐term trends in KE on snow‐free ground, and estimated energy levels for return periods of 2, 20, and 100 years. We then detrended the snowpack data and compared the resulting trends in KE with the trends resulting from changes in both rainfall energy and snowpack under two GCMs. Principal findings include (1) upward trends in MKE, (2) stronger upward trends in TKE; and (3) an effect of increasing rainfall intensities on KE in some cases, and a strong effect of reduced snowpack in all cases examined.     

A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography

Stand structure develops with stand age. Old-growth forests with well-developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old-growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap-shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old-growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old-growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low-productivity sites are still important and should be protected.     

1368-1948年山西霜雪灾害的特征与周期规律研究

通过对山西1368-1948年历史文献资料的搜集、整理和数学分析,对该区霜雪灾害等级、阶段、周期及其成因进行了研究。在这期间,山西共发生霜雪灾害419次,轻度106次、中度228次、重度85次。灾害变化可分为4个阶段,1368-1579年为第1阶段,1580-1699年为第2阶段,1700-1819年为第3阶段,1820-1948年为第4阶段。第1、3阶段距平值主要为负值,灾害频次较低,以轻、中度灾害为主。第2、4阶段距平值主要为正值,灾害频次较高,以中度和重度霜雪灾为主。小波分析表明,灾害存在着4个明显的周期,即10～13年、20年左右、45～50年和120年左右的周期。降雪或寒流引起的气温骤降至0℃以下是造成山西霜雪灾害的主要原因。共发生6次寒冷气候事件,分别出现在1578-1588、1591-1607、1631-1642、1669-1672、1690-1699和1830-1836年。出现3次异常寒冷灾害年,分别是1653、1892和1929年。     

中国代表性滑雪场网络关注度时空演变及影响因素

基于百度指数数据,运用指数测度、空间地理分析、回归模型和地理探测器,对2011—2019年中国大陆26个代表性滑雪场网络关注度的时空演变特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)时间演化上,网络关注度呈先增后减且逐渐平稳的规律。2015年、2016年为峰值年份,季节性差异明显,共两个波动峰值且为“南北为单,中东为双”的分布格局。(2)空间特性上,全国和地区均为先增后减特征,地区差异显著;变异程度先降后增并趋于稳定,全国分布相对稳定平衡,地区分布呈不稳定集聚特性。省区冷热区域分布总体呈“东北热—西南冷”格局,层级变化以稳定型为主。(3)滑雪场层面上,滑雪场总体偏好层级变动较大,高偏好保持稳定领先,其余层级以下降变动为主。滑雪场冷热点分级呈“北热南冷”的格局,东北、华北两个热点集聚区域演变较为稳定。(4)影响因素上,需求侧影响因素排序为滑雪消费吸引力>受教育程度>经济发展水平>信息化水平>滑雪场建设水平。供给侧的滑雪人次占比、滑雪经济贡献、客运承载力、冰雪旅游资源丰度、官方媒体建设水平解释力较强,其他因素影响并不显著。     

珠穆朗玛峰地区新降雪的化学特征

根据1998年8、9月份在珠穆朗玛峰东侧东绒布冰川源头所采集的新降雪样的化学成分资料并与不同时期前人在该地区采集的降水样进行对比,初步探讨了该地区降水的化学特征及其气候环境意义.结果表明,珠峰地区夏末降水非常纯净,主要离子浓度可与南极和格陵兰地区相当,代表了全球偏远地区的大气环境本底值;珠峰地区不同季节降水的化学成分有明显的差异,反映了不同的水汽来源和气候状况.8～9月的水汽主要来源于南亚季风;4～5月的降水深受中亚干旱、半干旱区粉尘的影响,说明其降水的化学特征具有气候敏感性.     

雨季玉龙雪山白水1号冰川表层雪中无机离子特征及环境意义

分析了玉龙雪山白水1号冰川雨季(5-10月)表层雪中无机离子的组成和特征,并与其他高海拔地区湿沉降进行对比。结果表明:白水1号冰川表层雪一定程度上受到了人类活动的影响;由于雨季强烈的淋溶作用,表层雪SO₄^2-含量较低,酸度的主要贡献离子是NO₃^-;pH值较高的原因是碱性金属离子的中和作用;海盐示踪结果显示雨季表层雪中离子来源主要以海源为主。在6-9月之间由于降水的淋洗作用,表层雪中离子浓度较低。表层雪中NO₃^-、SO₄^2-、Ca²⁺高于大多数其他高海拔区域降水,是表层雪中无机离子浓度的主要贡献者,Ca²⁺浓度较高说明该地区高空水汽也受到了局地岩石岩性的强烈影响。     

抚顺市降水化学组份特征分析

对 2 0 0 2年 2月～ 2 0 0 3年 3月抚顺市的降水化学组份及时空分布特征进行了分析。抚顺地区降水是以硫酸型污染为主。抚顺市降水中主要阳离子组份是Ca2 + 、NH4 + ,主要阴离子组份是SO4 2 - 和NO3- 。由多元逐步回归分析可知抚顺市降水中NO3- 是酸化剂 ,Ca2 + 是碱化剂 ,对方程起作用的因子大小顺序是Ca2 + >Na+ >NO3- 。