Estimating Lag to Peak between Rainfall and Peak Streamflow with a Mixed‐Effects Model

We test the use of a mixed‐effects model for estimating lag to peak for small basins in Maine (drainage areas from 0.8 to 78 km²). Lag to peak is defined as the time between the center of volume of the excess rainfall during a storm event and the resulting peak streamflow. A mixed‐effects model allows for multiple observations at sites without violating model assumptions inherent in traditional ordinary least squares models, which assume each observation is independent. The mixed model includes basin drainage area and maximum 15‐min rainfall depth for individual storms as explanatory features. Based on a remove‐one‐site cross‐validation analysis, the prediction errors of this model ranged from ?42% to +73%. The mixed model substantially outperformed three published models for lag to peak and one published model for centroid lag for estimating lag to peak for small basins in Maine. Lag to peak estimates are a key input to rainfall–runoff models used to design hydraulic infrastructure. The improved accuracy and consistency with model assumptions indicates that mixed models may provide increased data utilization that could enhance models and estimates of lag to peak in other regions.     

页岩气钻屑固化填埋池监测与评价研究

为了探讨钻屑固化填埋池对周围土壤及水体环境的影响,以西南某页岩气田为例,分别选取了具有代表性的水基钻屑固化填埋池和油基灰渣固化填埋池,先对钻屑固化处置方式和效果进行了评价,再对钻屑固化填埋池土壤径流液及土壤进行了监测,分析了固化填埋池对周边土壤环境的影响。结果表明:钻屑固化体浸出液达到GB8978-1996《污水综合排放标准》一级排放标准,钻屑固化填埋池土壤径流液满足GB5084-2005《农田灌溉水质标准》旱作标准;水基钻屑固化填埋池和油基灰渣固化填埋池上覆土壤重金属综合污染指数分别是0.42、0.45,周边土壤重金属综合污染指数分别是0.45、0.54。钻屑固化填埋池各项监测指标均未超标,土壤重金属综合污染指数均小于0.7,钻屑固化填埋暂时未对周边土壤造成影响,属于清洁水平。短期内钻屑固化填埋效果较好,对周围土壤环境影响较小。     

中国雪灾及相关研究述评

雪灾作为自然灾害的一种,相对于其他灾种,发生的范围和频率较小。历史上发生的雪灾有记载的200多次,其中重大的上百次。学界有关雪灾问题的研究存在着很大的不足：一是有关研究大都包涵在自然灾害之中作为灾种的一部分进行简单论述,而没有单独作为一个专题进行更为详实的研究;二是近30年来,学界多从气象学角度出发,对雪灾的形成机制及原因等方面进行分析,而从社会学与史学的角度进行研究的成果极其少见。     

元江-红河干流径流时序特性及突变分析

以元江干流主要控制性水文站蛮耗站在1956～2000年观测记录共45年的径流量序列数据为基础,运用Mann Kendall、有序聚类和累积距平等统计方法分析元江径流分布规律及其变化的基本特征。结果表明：实测径流年内分配不均,年际变化不大,年径流变差系数为0263。实测径流量序列存在明显的阶段性和缓慢上升趋势。对元江实测径流序列进行还原处理得到天然径流量,发现其与实测径流的差异不大,多年平均水资源耗水量仅占天然径流量的292%。年径流量和径流系数在1965年和1994年前后都发生两次增加突变;而年降水量与流域年蒸散发量没有发生突变。归一化植被植物变化表明元江干流植被覆盖在1993年左右被破坏较为严重。因此,得出径流变化趋势主要与降雨有关,两次突变主要受人类对下垫面改变的影响。     

耕作措施对三峡库区土壤侵蚀和养分流失的影响

为研究三峡库区土地耕作措施对土壤侵蚀和营养物质流失的影响,在三峡库区张家冲小流域设置10个不同土地利用方式的试验小区,在自然降雨条件下,进行为期1 a的小区试验,研究不同土地利用方式下土壤侵蚀和径流中氮、磷流失特征.结果表明:在10个试验小区中,土坎梯种柑小区年均径流量和土壤侵蚀量最大,土坎篱种柑小区年均径流量最小,坡地种粮小区土壤侵蚀量最小;坡篱种粮小区总氮和总磷年流失量最大,坡地种柑小区年流失量最小;土壤侵蚀和营养物质流失主要发生在6-8月降雨集中的暴雨季节.在类似于研究区域的其他农业区域,适合于坡地种柑,而坡篱种粮和土坎梯种柑是不适合推广的种植方式.     

Quantification and Index of Non-Point Source Pollution in Taihu Lake Region with GIS

The contribution of phosphorus and nitrogen from non-point source pollution (NPS) in the Taihu Lake region was investigated through case study and surveying in the town of Xueyan, From experimental results coupled with survey and statistics in the studied area, the distribution of nitrogen and phosphorus input to the water body is achieved from four main sources: agricultural land, village, the town center and the poultry factory. The results showed that about 38% of total phosphorus (TP) and 48% of total nitrogen (TN) discharged is from agricultural land, 33% of TP and 40% TN from village residents, 25% of TP and 10% of TN from the town center and 4% of TP and 2% of TN from the poultry factory.The Agricultural Non-point Pollution Potential Index (APPI) system for identifying and ranking critical areas of NPS was established with a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based technology. Quantification of the key factors in non-point sources pollution was carried out utilizing the following: Sediment Production Index (SPI), Runoff Index (RI), People and Animal Loading Index (PALI) and Chemical Use Index (CUI). These are the core parts of the model, and the weighting factor of each index was evaluated according the results of quantification. The model was successfully applied for evaluating APPI in Xueyan. Results from the model showed that the critical area identified for NPS control in Xueyan. The model has several advantages including: requiring fewer parameters, easy acquirement of these parameters, friendly interface, and convenience of operation. In addition it is especially useful for identifying critical areas of NPS when the basic data are not fully accessible, which is the present situation in China.     

降雨促渗对地表径流污染物负荷影响模拟试验研究

建立模拟降雨装置,研究降雨条件下功能性材料与聚合物对降水土壤渗透性与地表径流污染负荷的影响.研究证实,沸石与PAM不仅能够促进降雨土壤水的入渗、延缓并减少地表径流,而且使土壤渗液和地表径流水质TSS、TN、TP、COD污染物负荷降低.以3 kg/hm2 PAM、3 kg PAM与7.5 t/hm2沸石、6 kg/hm2 PAM 3种方式处理,径流COD负荷为对照的39.12%～69.76%、26.14%～46.63%和20.60%～28.09%;TN、TP与TSS负荷较对照分别减少44.36%～96.47%、66.63%～98.99%、93.71%～99.62%和50.46%～98.40%、83.30%～99.31%、94.91%～99.72%和31.06%～77.23%、46.82%～86.22%、83.54%～95.33%.聚合物与功能性材料改良土壤是一种削减地表降雨径流非点源污染的有效手段.     

城市降雨径流水质污染分析

目前我国对一些小流域的农业区面源污染积累较多经验，对城市面源污染的研究比较少，这是因为随着城市化进程的加速，这是人类在城市上的活动能力较农业区大幅度地增加，从而导致城市地面污染种类繁多复杂。本文通过应用径流形成原理理论对其进行初步分析，提出现行适用的控制城市径流污染的方法为工程和非工程的两大类。     

北京市城市非点源污染特征的研究

通过监测降雨径流水质,研究了北京市城市非点源污染的特征。结果表明,北京市城市地表径流水排入任何地表水体都会对其造成污染,且城市地表径流水的大部分水质指标已经达到了污水综合排放的三级标准,因此,我们对待城市地表径流水应该如对待污水一样处理。对于TN、TP、CODCr、BOD5浓度,路面径流要高于屋顶径流,而对于SS浓度,屋顶径流高于路面径流。总磷TP颗粒吸附态的污染物对总污染物的贡献最大,对于路面径流高达83.1%,对于屋顶径流为68.6%,其次是CODCr,总氮TN的颗粒吸附态的贡献较低。通过沉积或过滤去除城市地表径流中的悬浮颗粒物,可以提高城市地表径流的水质。所有污染物随降雨过程变化的总体趋势为雨水初期径流污染物浓度很高,随降雨历时的延长,污染物浓度逐渐下降并趋于稳定。初期径流危害较大。     

HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERIZATION OF WATERSHEDS FOR RUNOFF PREDICTION USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous time, distributed parameter hydrologic models like SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has opened several opportunities to improve watershed modeling accuracy. However, it has also placed a heavy burden on users with respect to the amount of work involved in parameterizing the watershed in general and in adequately representing the spatial variability of the watershed in particular. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have alleviated some of the difficulties associated with managing spatial data. However, the user must still choose among various parameterization approaches that are available within the model. This paper describes the important parameterization issues involved when modeling watershed hydrology for runoff prediction using SWAT with emphasis on how to improve model performance without resorting to tedious and arbitrary parameter by parameter calibration. Synthetic and actual watersheds in Indiana and Mississippi were used to illustrate the sensitivity of runoff prediction to spatial variability, watershed decomposition, and spatial and temporal adjustment of curve numbers and return flow contribution. SWAT was also used to predict stream runoff from actual watersheds in Indiana that have extensive subsurface drainage. The results of this study provide useful information for improving SWAT performance in terms of stream runoff prediction in a manner that is particularly useful for modeling ungaged watersheds wherein observed data for calibration is not available.