Forging New Directions in Science and Environmental Politics and Policy: How Can Co-operation, Deliberation and Decision be Brought Together?

Science, politics and environmental policy have for several years been encountering social and institutional as well as scientific challenges, national and international. The normative basis of all sciences is pressurised from three sides: by awareness of the public, who claims more transparency and sensibility from the scientific institutions regarding factual or possible impacts of science-based industrial progress; by the industries, which try to speed up and intensify the industrialisation of knowledge; and by the public policies, which want to see the sciences engaged in ways to mitigate unintended consequences of economic, ecological and social developments. At the same time, environmental policy is undergoing a tremendous sea change both in conceptual and practical matters. Since the Brundtland Report in 1987 and accelerated after UNCED 1992, environmental policy has been struggling to become a groundbreaking new paradigm for the capacity of resolving social and political issues as well. Any successful attempt to alter traditional institutional and mental structures in policy-making toward sustainability presupposes a renewed association of co-operation, deliberation and decision making. Results from theory of democracy, studies in science and technology, and evaluation studies in environmental policy and politics can be utilised for this context.     

INTEGRATING DEMOGRAPHIC AND LANDSAT (TM) DATA AT A WATERSHED SCALE1

ABSTRACT: Recurrent calls for integrated resource management urge that an understanding of human activities and populations be incorporated into natural resource research, management, and protection efforts. In this paper, we hypothesize that watersheds can be a valuable geography for organizing an inquiry into the relationship between humans and the environment, and we present a framework for conducting such efforts. The framework is grounded in the emerging field of landscape ecology and incorporates demographic theory and data. Demography has been advanced by technological capabilities associated with the 1990 Census. Employing Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, we couple Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) land cover data with census‐derived housing density data to demonstrate the operation of our framework and its utility for better understanding human‐landscape interactions. In our investigation of the Kickapoo Watershed and two sub‐ watersheds, located in southwestern Wisconsin, we identify relationships between landscape composition and the distribution and social structure of human populations. Our findings offer insight into the interplay between people and biophysical systems.     

The Economic Consequences of Alien Plant Invasions: Examples of Impacts and Approaches to Sustainable Management in South Africa

The invasion of natural ecosystems by alien plants is a serious environmental problem that threatens the sustainable use of benefits derived from such ecosytems. Most past studies in this field have focussed on the history, ecology and management of invasive alien species, and little work has been done on the economic aspects and consequences of invasions. This paper reviews what is known of the economic consequences of alien plant invasions in South Africa. These economic arguments have been used to successfully launch the largest environmental management programme in Africa.Ten million hectares of South Africa has been invaded by 180 alien species, but their impacts are not fully understood, although they are undoubtedly significant. The indications are that the total costs of these impacts are substantial. Selected studies show that invasions have reduced the value of fynbos ecosystems by over US$ 11.75 billion; that the total cost of invasion would be about US$ 3.2 billion on the Agulhas Plain alone; that the net present cost of invasion by black wattles amounts to US$ 1.4 billion; that invasions by red water fern have cost US$ 58 million; and that the cost to clear the alien plant invasions in South Africa is around US$ 1.2 billion. These few examples indicate that the economic consequences of invasions are huge.One of the unique aspects of invasive plant control programmes in South Africa has been the ability to leverage further benefits (mainly through employment) for the expensive control programmes from the government's poverty relief budget. This has made it possible to allocate substantial funding to a programme that would otherwise have struggled to obtain significant support. Biological control of invasive species also offers considerable benefits, but is often the subject of debate. We believe that, at least in the case of many invasive alien plant species in South Africa, biological control offers one of the best, and most cost-effective, interventions for addressing the problem.     

二龙山流域生态环境整治与可持续发展管理机制研究

指出了二龙山水库流域经济社会发展与生态环境保护的矛盾,针对具体矛盾,建立了生态环境管理与可持续发展管理机制,提出了相应的社会对策,进而拟定了可行的法律法规体系.      

昆明市经济发展梯度及经济一体化发展策略

昆明市下辖14个县(市)区,14个县(市)区之间经济发展水平差异显著。建立了昆明市经济发展水平评价指标体系,利用聚类分析法结合2006年《昆明统计年鉴》以及2006年《云南省统计年鉴》数据,将14个县(市)区划分为3个经济梯度,并提出了梯度间一体化发展策略。     

论可持续发展视野中的农村社会支持

本文阐述了如何可持续发展观来指导农村社会支持,并提出在农村社会支持活动中,引进社会保险、社会服务、生态保护和心理培育等新的机制,运用综合性评价指标体系对各种农村社会支持项目及其结果进行经济效益、社会效益和心理效益三个方面的分析。     

频率波数域内层状地基动力柔度的精细求解

精细积分法既可得到在计算机精度意义下的精确解,又能够保持哈密顿体系的辛结构.其是求解一阶线性常微分方程组的精确数值方法,既可以用于时间域的初值问题,又可以应用于空间域的两点边值问题.运用精细积分法求解微层区段矩阵,并对微层区段矩阵合并得到整个层状地基的区段矩阵,最终得到层状地基的动力柔度值.运用数值算例验证了本文方法的...     

水泥土桩复合地基场地地震效应分析

将复合地基加固区视为均质体,采用课题组提出的基于Davidenkov骨架曲线的土体动弹塑性模型描述复合地基加固区和非加固区土体的动应力-应变关系,基于大型有限元软件ABAQUS的操作平台,开发了土体动粘弹塑性模型的子程序。选择南京某典型软弱场地为研究对象,采用ABAQUS软件进行了复合地基二维弹塑性地震反应分析,研究了输入地震动强度和频谱特性、水泥土桩加固宽度和深度、复合地基模量对复合地基场地地震效应的影响。结果表明:输入地震动强度和频谱特性对复合地基地震效应影响较大;复合地基加固区地表的峰值加速度反应较自由场的反应明显减小,而加固体区外侧地表的峰值加速度反应较之自由场的反应可能增大;复合地基地表的峰值加速度反应随着水泥土桩加固深度和复合模量的增加而减小,而与加固宽度无关。     

人工神经网络在预测深基坑周边地表沉降变形中的应用研究

深基坑开挖引起的周边地表变形预测是一个复杂非线性问题,引起地表沉降的影响因素很多,各因素之间呈高度的非线性关系。传统的基坑用边地表沉降变形预测方法存在着一定的局限性,其预测精度有待提高,而人工神经网络是一种多元非线性动力学系统,可以灵活方便地对多成因的复杂未知系统进行高度建模,实现全面考虑各种主要影响因素的深基坑周边地表沉降变形预测。本文介绍了误差反向传播(BP)网络模型的结构、学习过程及其算法的改进,径向基函数(RBF)网络模型的结构及其学习过程;分析了影响深基坑开挖周边土体沉降变形的主要影响因素;以25个基坑工程的地表沉降实测资料为训练样本,建立了11个输入影响因素的BP神经网络模型和RBF神经网络模型,通过对样本的学习训练过程及对5个检验样本的预测精度,说明了人工神经网络用于预测基坑周边地表沉降的可行性和准确性。     

SMW围护结构的深基坑隆起变形有限元分析

影响基坑基底隆起的因素存在极大的模糊性和随机性,基底隆起变形量的计算是一个复杂的非线性过程,而采用有限元法对基坑基底隆起变形量进行分析是个有效的途径。本文以上海某深基坑为例,基于ABAQU S软件对该基坑基底隆起变形量进行有限元分析。研究表明,基底隆起最大变形量发生在离基坑侧壁约以SMW围护桩入土深度为半径的圆内侧。本文将为基坑隆起问题的定量研究提供有价值的参考。