考虑随机误差的软土基坑沉降趋势分析及预测*

为准确分析基坑沉降变性规律，基于现场监测数据，通过卡尔曼滤波对趋势项及误差项进行分解，采用M-K检验对发展趋势进行评价，利用优化广义回归神经网络和差分整合移动平均自回归模型，构建基坑沉降分项预测模型，并将预测结果与发展趋势评价结果对比分析，以实现基坑沉降变形规律综合研究。结果表明:卡尔曼滤波能有效分解基坑沉降数据趋势项与误差项，相较于传统小波分解效果更佳；基坑沉降呈持续增加趋势，但趋势性逐渐减弱；预测结果相对误差均值均不大于2%，预测模型精度较高；沉降变形会进一步增加，但增加速率明显降低，与发展趋势分析结果一致，两者相互佐证分析结果准确性。研究结果为基坑沉降变形规律分析提供新思路。     

项目可持续发展影响评价初探

本文从可持续发展的视角。介绍了项目可持续发展影响评价体系．对可持续发展影响评价的定义及内涵和原则及内容、评价指标体系进行阐述．建议改进现行的环境评价、经济评价和社会评价，使它们综合为可持续发展影响评价。     

武汉市大旅游网络建设研究

从地理位置、对外经济联系、国内和省内经济地位、旅游资源丰度等方面分析了武汉市发展旅游事业的有利条件；论证了建设以武汉市为中心，向郊区（县）、省内和邻省延伸的旅游网络的必要性和可行性及发展国际旅游的潜力；提出了大力加强景点和基础设施建设，改善周边交通条件，壮大地方航空公司等加快旅游业发展的对策和措施。     

岩溶地区基础设计与处理

本文根据工程实例,介绍了岩溶地区的基础设计与处理。     

关于天津台网地震速报的几点思考

本文从地震速报工作的重要性入手，论述了提高地震速报质量的基础和关键，同时讨论了天津台网地震速报中存在影响速报质量的问题及改进措施。     

桩基工程泥浆水处理技术

通过一系列不同类型的絮凝剂的试验，发现高分子量的ＨＰＡＭ对桩基工程泥浆水的脱水最有效。对真空吸滤、压滤和离心３种干化工艺进行了比较试验，认为化学絮凝与物理离心脱水干化相结合的处理工艺在桩基工程施工现场具有广阔的开发应用前景。     

Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable Development: Adaptation to Drought in the Senegal River Basin

The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification.     

城市水资源社会再生能力评价模型研究

为了在城市水资源评价过程中充分考虑城市水资源的社会循环，更好地揭示城市水资源开发利用的潜力，提出了城市水资源社会再生能力概念，并分别建立了城市水资源社会绝对再生能力与相对再生能力的评价指标体系；在此基础上，建立了一种全新的城市水资源评价模型——基于人工神经网络的城市水资源社会再生能力评价模型．该模型在构造评价标准的过程中，通过“虚拟城市”构造模型训练样本；由此将评价问题转化成人工神经网络所擅长的分类问题，并赋予评价结果实际的内涵，使得评价结果更直观且更易于理解．最后，以黄河流域的主要城市为研究对象，对其绝对水资源再生能力与相对水资源再生能力分别进行评价；并与传统的灰色关联方法进行对比；评价结果与实际相吻合。     

持续农业内涵的目标界定

本文试用持续农业的目标来界定持续农业的内涵。持续农业就是具有农业生产可持续性、经济可持续性、生态可持续性和农村社会可持续性的农业。首先分别阐述了持续农业的４个目标，然后就目标之间的相关与独立关系、轻重缓急关系做了分析     

Colony foundation and polygyny in the ant Formica podzolica

We document the variation in number of queens occurring naturally in founding, immature and mature nests of the ant Formica podzolica, and compare development of colonies and survivorship of queens in experimental nests started with 1–16 foundresses. Number of queens per nest was associated with stage of colony development. Most nests were monogynous, but 20% of immature nests (n = 66) and 25% of mature nests (n = 92) were oligogynous or polygynous. Colonies were usually established by single queens (i.e., haplometrosis), but colony establishment by multiple queens (i.e., pleometrotis) was also common, occurring in 27% of founding nests (n = 492). Foundress groups in the field were small ( = 1.47 ± 0.04 queens/nest), and large groups experienced high mortality and low productivity in artificial nests. Therefore, the many queens (up to 140) in some immature and mature colonies were probably secondarily pleometrotic. Experimental nests started with 1–4 queens were more successful than those initiated by 8 or 16 queens. Small groups (2–4 queens) produced more pupae before the first nests reared workers than single foundresses or larger groups (8 or 16 queens). Although single foundresses were less productive than queens in small groups, they experienced greater survivorship and less weight loss than queens in pleometrotic associations. Besides low productivity, queen mortality and weight loss were greatest in large groups.