基于社会技术系统的复工企业疫情防控风险路径研究*

为对复工企业疫情防控中的风险致因因素进行分析,探寻复工企业疫情防控的风险路径,基于社会技术系统理论,建立宏观工效学模型,通过查阅并分析国家、地方政府、企业文件以及相关文献,从人员、技术、组织管理、内部环境及外部环境5个子系统出发,识别出16个复工企业疫情失控致因因素;运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建复工企业疫情防控关系网络,对各因素节点中心度进行计算,分析各节点在网络中的位置及影响程度;采用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行参数学习和推理学习,找出复工企业疫情失控的最大致因链。结果表明:复工企业疫情失控关系网络中,存在政府监督管理不力→防疫物资筹备不足→日常监管不到位,政府监督管理不力→ 防疫宣传、培训缺失→员工防疫知识欠缺,政府监督管理不力→防疫宣传、培训缺失→日常监管不到位3条最长风险路径。研究结果可帮助复工企业针对最长风险路径中的因素进行管理,从而有效地为复工企业防疫提供理论支持。     

Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

包装企业有机废气深度处理技改实例探讨

有机废气的治理方法有很多,应选择合适的治理方法或组合来提高处理效率,来着力改善大气环境质量。以某包装企业有机废气深度处理技术改造项目为实例,探讨采取RTO焚烧法取得的治理效果。     

Recent application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in process safety and loss prevention: A review

In recent years, significant progress has been made to ensure that process industries are among the safest workplaces in the world. However, with the increasing complexity of existing technologies and new problems brought about by emerging technologies, a strong need still exists to study the fundamentals of process safety and predict possible scenarios. This is attained by conducting the corresponding consequence modeling and risk assessments. As a result of the continuous advancement of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools and exponentially increased computation capabilities along with better understandings of the underlying physics, CFD simulations have been applied widely in the areas of process safety and loss prevention to gain new insights, improve existing models, and assess new hazardous scenarios. In this review, 126 papers from 2010 to 2020 have been included in order to systematically categorize and summarize recent applications of CFD for fires, explosions, dispersions of flammable and toxic materials from accidental releases, incident investigations and reconstructions, and other areas of process safety. The advantages of CFD modeling are discussed and the future of CFD applications in this research area is outlined.     

挥发性有机废气治理技术的现状与进展

本文通过查阅文献资料,总结了当前企业挥发性有机废气产生情况、政策管理办法以及相关处理技术,并分析了未来挥发性有机废气治理政策发展趋势,旨在提高挥发性有机废气治理效率,提高空气环境质量。     

污染农田土壤修复产业发展面临的问题及建议

随着经济的发展,我国的农业建设也迎来了新的发展机遇,但是目前我国的农业发展过程中存在着严重的土壤污染问题,污染农田土壤修复的问题有待解决。本文围绕污染农田土壤修复这一问题展开研究,望有所助益。     

秦皇岛市重点工业企业VOCs排放及分布特征

工业企业挥发性有机物(VOCs)污染排放对大气环境影响日益突出,工业源VOCs污染防治成为环境保护的重点工作。为进一步提高秦皇岛市工业源挥发性有机物(VOCs)治理的科学性、针对性和有效性,对2019年秦皇岛市重点排污企业VOCs的排污量、区域分布、排放行业等进行了详细调查分析:秦皇岛市重点工业源VOCs排放总量为6875.83t,排放量最大的区域是秦皇岛经济技术开发区,占比51.1%;排放量最大的行业是交通运输设备制造业,占总排放量的33.5%;溶剂使用源的排放量最大,占比52.3%。     

土壤污染风险规制中的行政裁量研究

我国土壤污染风险规制在专家遴选标准、建设用地和农用地污染风险管控要求,以及风险管控措施等方面存在不同程度的行政裁量。社会理性和科学理性的缺失形成了土壤污染风险行政裁量困局。土壤污染信息制度中“适时公开”的规定使得公众缺乏必要污染信息,弱化其参与程度,导致对行政决定合法性的质疑。此外,土壤污染风险管控标准中专家遴选标准和论证规则的欠缺导致土壤污染风险规制科学理性的缺失。为此,需要建构关照事实和规范的协商式行政裁量模式,强调公众的实质性参与以弥合技术理性和公众理性的鸿沟。同时,在程序上确定专家遴选标准和风险管控标准的论证规则以保证土壤污染风险管控的科学性和客观性。在不妨碍行政裁量权灵活性和能动性的前提下,规范行政裁量权的行使,控制行政裁量权的滥用。     

Characteristics that make trophy hunting of giant pandas inconceivable

In November 1928, Theodore Jr. and Kermit Roosevelt led an expedition to China with the expressed purpose of being the first Westerners to kill the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). The expedition lasted 8 months and resulted in the brothers shooting a giant panda in the mountains of Sichuan Province. Given the concurrent attention in the popular press describing this celebrated expedition, the giant panda was poised to be trophy hunted much like other large mammals around the world. Today, however, the killing of giant pandas, even for the generation of conservation revenue, is unthinkable for reasons related to the species itself and the context, in time and space, in which the species was popularized in the West. We found that the giant panda's status as a conservation symbol, exceptional charisma and gentle disposition, rarity, value as a nonconsumptive ecotourism attraction, and endemism are integral to the explanation of why the species is not trophy hunted. We compared these intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics with 20 of the most common trophy-hunted mammals to determine whether the principles applying to giant pandas are generalizable to other species. Although certain characteristics of the 20 trophy-hunted mammals aligned with the giant panda, many did not. Charisma, economic value, and endemism, in particular, were comparatively unique to the giant panda. Our analysis suggests that, at present, exceptional characteristics may be necessary for certain mammals to be excepted from trophy hunting. However, because discourse relating to the role of trophy hunting in supporting conservation outcomes is dynamic in both science and society, we suspect these valuations will also change in future.