linking various aspects of atmospheric change through a systems analysis of food

Although interdisciplinary collaboration to address a singleenvironmental problem is more common than in the past, all toooften the significant atmospheric problems of our day such asstratospheric ozone depletion, acidic deposition or climaticchange are addressed on a single issue basis. Systems analysis isa way of looking at a problem in a holistic, integrated fashionthrough including as many as practicable of the importantcomponents, and the linkages among them. Systems analysisoften begins with a conceptual model which, even if lackingquantification, is a useful means of changing ones thinking to amulti-issue approach. If possible, conceptual models areoperationalized by quantification (using the best availablescientific knowledge) of the stocks and flows of the relevantcomponents of the problem, and the processes that are involved.In this paper, a systems approach to food production is used tolink various atmospheric issues such as regional acidification andclimatic change. A spreadsheet model of food demand andproduction in various world regions examined the possible effectof atmospheric change on how much food we can grow, andwhether or not we may be able to meet the increased demand inthe year 2025. Using relatively modest changes in factors ofagricultural production, the spreadsheet model calculated globalshortfalls by the year 2025 of the order of 10 to 20% in someimportant agricultural crops, despite the improvements in cropproduction factors that are envisaged by the Food andAgricultural Organization from now until the year 2010, and thatwere extrapolated in this paper to 2025. The model alsocalculated that climatic change in combination with eithertropospheric ozone or increased UV-B radiation caused bydepletion of the stratospheric ozone layer may in general makethe situation worse than in the case of climatic change alone.Given the large uncertainties in the input data, the results in thispaper should not be viewed as predictions but rather as anexample of taking a relatively simple systems approach to foodproduction using a spreadsheet model, and calculating the effectsthat various aspects of atmospheric change might have upon it.Therefore, it is extremely important to know the effects uponcrop production factors of climatic change, tropospheric ozoneand increased UV-B radiation not only as individual issues, butalso of their combined effect since it is probable that in manyregions they will occur in combination.     

Modeling the spatial pattern of farmland using GIS and multiple logistic regression: a case study of Maotiao River Basin, Guizhou Province, China

Land use change is an important topic in the field of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use change modeling has attracted substantial attention because it helps researchers understand the mechanisms of land use change and assists regulatory bodies in formulating relevant policies. Maotiao River Basin is located in the province of Guizhou, China, which has a developed agricultural industry in the karst mountain areas. This paper selected biophysical and social–economic factors as independent variables, and constructed a multiple logistic regression of farmland spatial distribution probability by random sampling. Then, by using GIS technology and integrating the 2000 data, this study predicted the farmland spatial pattern. When the predicted map was compared with the actual farmland map for 2000, we noted that 71% of the simulation is in accordance with the 2000 farmland pattern. The result satisfactorily proves the reasonability and applicability of our model.     

内蒙古某灌域表层土壤六氯环己烷空间分布特征及影响因素

为修复灌区内土壤有机氯农药污染，降低六氯环己烷对土壤环境的危害，对内蒙古某灌域表层土壤进行采样，利用气相色谱测定50个土壤样品中六氯环己烷及其异构体的含量，并利用ArcGIS空间分析技术确定表层土壤中六氯环己烷的分布状况。样本中六氯环己烷的检出率为96%，各样本中六氯环己烷的浓度范围为未检出~23.0 ng/g，平均浓度为4.4 ng/g。4种异构体含量平均值顺序为γ-六氯环己烷>δ-六氯环己烷>β-六氯环己烷>α-六氯环己烷。灌域东北部和西南部残留浓度较高，并由这2个方向向中部地区逐渐递减，表层土壤中的六氯环己烷分布受土壤黏粒量、不同种植种类和灌溉水源的影响较大。虽受人类耕作的影响，但表层土壤中的六氯环己烷污染水平相对较低。     

Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Assessment of the Heavy Metal Pollution Effects on the Soil Respiration in the Baix Llobregat (Catalonia, NE Spain)

A main goal of investigations is to determine could a soilrespiration be an indicator of the soil pollution. In this case a measured levelof the soil oxygen consumption depends of its pollution. It alsomeans that the pollution reduces biological processes in edaphon.Investigated soil samples were taken from polluted andnon-polluted places in the Baix Llobregat near Barcelona (Catalonia, NE Spain). Soil samples were taken from the top ofsoil (0–5 cm) without a litter. Soil analysis were done, determining percentage shares of coarsefragments, coarse sand, fine sand, coarse silt, fine silt, clay,CaCO₃, organic matter as well as water pH and conductivityCE (1:5 [mS cm^-1]). Also were determined (in mg kg^-1)quantities of heavy metals, as Fe, Al, Mn, Zn, Cr, Ni, V, Cu, Cd, Pb.The soil respiration was investigated in temperatures15 and 30 °C and with controlled humidity.The respiration in 30 °C is number of times greater thenin 15 °C both for polluted and non-polluted soils.Particularly high coefficients of correlation between the soilrespiration and soil pollution in polluted soils were obtainedfor Pb: r = 0.75 in 15 °C and r = 0.98 in30 °C; for Ba: 0.90 and 0.57; for V: 0.99 and 0.81. In non-polluted soils highest correlation coefficients are for Pb: r = 0.70 in 15 °C; Fe: 0.60 and 0.72; Al: 0.68 and0.64; Mn: 0.51 and 0.66; Ba: 0.63 and 0.61; Cr: 0.94 and0.70; Ni: 0.64 and 0.65; Cu: 0.69 and 0.48; as well as V: 0.62in 15 °C; and Cd: 0.69 in 15 °C.This way the soil respiration could be a good indicator of the soil pollution.     

Mega-Development Trends in the Amazon: Implications for Global Change

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr^–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr^–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr^–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO₂ and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO₂.     

Soil properties and crop productivity as influenced by flyash incorporation in soil

Field experiments were carried out during 1996–97at Gulawathi, Muthiani and Salarpur Villages, IARI Farm, NewDelhi and NCPP Campus, Dadri to evaluate changes in soilcharacteristics and growth of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.),mustard (Brassica juncea L.), lentil (Lence esculentaMoench.), rice (Oryza sativa L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) byvarying amounts of flyash addition (up to 50t ha^-1) in soils atsowing/transplanting time of crops. Flyash addition in areasadjoining NCPP Thermal Power Plant, Dadri, Ghaziabad, U.P.ranged from 5–12 t ha^-1 yr^-1 in 1995–96. Shoot and root growthand yield of test crops at different locations after flyashincorporation resulted in beneficial effects of flyashaddition in most cases. The silt dominant texture of flyashimproved loamy sand to sandy loam textures of the surfacesoils at the farmers' fields. The increased growth in yield ofcrops with flyash incorporation was possibly due tomodifications in soil moisture retention and transmissioncharacteristics, bulk density, physico-chemical characterssuch as pH and EC and organic carbon content. The response offlyash addition in the soil on soil health and cropproductivity needs to be evaluated on long-term sustainableaspects.     

Using environmental stressor information to predict the ecological status of Maryland non-tidal streams as measured by biological indicators

In Maryland, U.S., an interim framework has recentlybeen developed for using biologically based thresholds, or `biocriteria', to assess the health of nontidal streams statewide at watershed scales. The evaluation of impairment is based on indices of biological integrity from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). We applied logistic regression to quantify how the biotic integrity of streams at a local scale is affected by cumulative effects resulting from catchment land uses, point sources, and nearby transmission line rights-of-way. Indicators for land use were developed from the remote sensing National Land Cover Data and applied at different scales. We determined that the risk of local impairment in nontidal streams rapidly increases with increased urban land use in the catchment area. The average likelihood of failing biocriteria doubled with every 10% points increment in urban land, thus an increase in urban land use from 0 to 20% quadruples the risk of impairment. For the basins evaluated in this study, catchments with more than 40–50% urban land use had greater than 80% probability of failing biocriteria, on average. Inclusion of rights-of-way and point sources in the model did not significantly improve the fit for this data set, most likely because of their low numbers. The overall results indicate that our predictive modeling approach can help pinpoint stream ecosystems experiencing or vulnerable to degradation.     

A Survey of Trace Metals in Vegetation, Soil and Lower Animal Along Some Selected Major Roads in Metropolitan City of Lagos

The concentration of trace metals (Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) in a total of 144 samples of grass, soil and lower animal (earthworm, Lybrodrilus violaceous) were collected and analysed for their metallic content. Levels of cadmium ranged from 0.01–0.07 g g^–1; 0.01–0.12 g g^–1 and from trace–0.05 g g^–1 dry weight for plant, soil and animal samples respectively. Mean concentration of copper ranged 0.10–1.48 g g^–1; 0.10–2.90 g g^–1 and 0.01–0.08 g g^–1 for samples in similar order as above. The levels of Pb varied from 0.01–0.14 g g^–1; 0.02–0.23 g g^–1 and from trace–0.07 g g^–1 while that of Zn ranged from 0.19–1.80 g g^–1; 0.51–3.35 g g^–1and 0.01–0.08 g g^–1 also in the same order of samples as mentioned above. Levels of metals in soil samples were higher than the background levels with the exception of Zn but lower than European Union (EU) limits. The results generally revealed the presence of metals in plant and animal samples and metal dynamics up the food chain is highly possible. Acceptable recoveries of the spiking experiment validate the experimental protocol.     

Geostatistical Uncertainty Modelling for the Environmental Hazard Assessment During Single Erosive Rainstorm Events

This paper presents an environmental hazard assessment to account the impacts of single rainstorm variability on river-torrential landscape identified as potentially vulnerable mainly to erosional soil degradation processes. An algorithm for the characterisation of this impact, called Erosive Hazard Index (EHI), is developed with a less expensive methodology. In EHI modelling, we assume that the river-torrential system has adapted to the natural hydrological regime, and a sudden fluctuation in this regime, especially those exceeding thresholds for an acceptable range of flexibility, may have disastrous consequences for the mountain environment. The hazard analysis links key rainstorm energy variables expressed as a single-storm erosion index (EI_sto), with impact thresholds identified using an intensity pattern model. Afterwards, the conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are spatially assessed using non-parametric geostatistical techinques, known as indicator kriging. The approach was applied to a test site in river-torrential landscape of the Southern Italy (Benevento province) for 13 November 1997 rainstorm event.