南京市人防工程环境放射性调查

在冬季、春季和夏季分别对南京市人防工程内空气中氡浓度进行了测量.结果显示,对应于不通风、半自然通风、自然通风三种方式,夏季氡浓度最高,为904.2 Bq/m3,是南京市室内平均值的50倍,冬季次之,春季最低,分别为12倍和7.9倍.γ射线空气吸收剂量率和土壤及建筑材料中放射性核素γ能谱分析结果表明,前者为正常本底水平,而后者与全国及南京平均值处于同一水平.根据测量数据,计算了工作人员受到的年有效剂量,为4.29 mSv,是全国平均值(2.30mSv)的1.9倍,且吸入氡及氡子体所致内照射剂量所占比重较大,为84.1%,危害更大.建议采用加强通风的措施降低空气中的氡浓度,以减轻危害.     

天然气管道泄漏火球事故后果模拟评价

天然气管道发生泄漏时,大约90%的气体产生燃烧并形成火球,遇火源即发生危害性非常大的火球爆炸事故。本文针对城市天然气管道泄漏事故,综合考虑天然气泄漏后可能发生的火球燃烧和爆炸,利用爆炸冲击波和火球热辐射模型对天然气管道(完全破裂)在发生泄漏时发生火球爆炸进行计算,结果表明:2分钟内泄漏天然气云团超压爆炸的死亡半径和热辐射的火球半径分别高达39.44m和92.93m。因此,通过计算天然气泄漏火球事故爆炸和热辐射范围,对天然气火球爆炸事故预防与应急救援具有一定的意义。     

基于路网脆弱性的紧急情况下交通疏散诱导模型

为提高紧急情况下交通疏散速度,实现对疏散交通流的诱导,需要建立紧急情况下的交通流诱导模型。根据紧急情况下路网特性,提出路网脆弱性指标,并将其引入交通流诱导模型,对常态交通流诱导模型进行改进,得到基于路网脆弱性的紧急情况下交通疏散诱导模型,并用实测数据求解模型参数。分别用常态交通流诱导模型和文中的改进模型进行实例计算,结果表明,经过改进模型诱导之后,高流量和低流量路段相对减少,交通流在路网中的分布更均衡、达到系统最优的效果。对紧急情况下的交通流进行有效诱导,可提高疏散路网利用效率,加快应急交通疏散。     

Sleepwalking into lock-in? Avoiding wrongs to future people in the governance of solar radiation management research

ABSTRACT

Arguments are advanced for two ways in which we can avoid the reckless endangerment of future people in the governance of solar radiation management (SRM) research, which could happen through lock-in to SRM deployment from research. SRM research is at an early stage, one at which the mechanisms of lock-in could start to operate. However, lock-in fit to endanger future people could be slowed or stopped through targeted governance. Governance of SRM research that does not include provisions to detect, slow, or stop lock-in fails the test of an intergenerationally adequate precautionary principle, and research governed without these provisions cannot itself be justified as a precaution against the impacts of climate change.     

基于系统动力学的安全生产监管有效性研究

为改善我国安全生产监管的效果,研究引入激励性监管措施后的安全生产监管效果。运用系统动力学(SD)建模方法,对比单用约束性监管措施的效果与综合运用约束性监管措施和激励性监管措施的效果。研究结果表明:单独使用约束性监管措施时,提高检查罚金和事故赔偿额,会使企业净收益、政府与企业的净收益总和增加。然而,综合使用约束性监管措施和激励性监管措施时,企业的净收益额增加,政府的净收益额减少,而企业与政府的净收益总额变化不大,但结合对事故负外部性的考虑,通常会使社会福利额外提高。     

Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case of indium in CIGS solar cells

Some renewable energy technologies rely on the functionalities provided by geochemically scarce metals. One example are CIGS solar cells, an emerging thin film photovoltaic technology, which contain indium. In this study we model global future indium demand related to the implementation of various energy scenarios and assess implications for the supply system. Influencing parameters of the demand model are either static or dynamic and include technology shares, technological progress and handling in the anthroposphere. Parameters’ levels reflect pessimistic, reference, and optimistic development. The demand from other indium containing products is roughly estimated. For the reference case, the installed capacity of CIGS solar cells ranges from 12 to 387 GW in 2030 (31–1401 GW in 2050), depending on the energy scenario chosen. This translates to between 485 and 15,724 tonnes of primary indium needed from 2000 to 2030 (789–30,556 tonnes through 2050). One scenario exemplifies that optimistic assumptions for technological progress and handling in the anthroposphere can reduce cumulative primary indium demand by 43% until 2050 compared to the reference case, while with pessimistic assumptions the demand increases by about a factor of five. To meet the future indium demand, several options to increase supply are discussed: (1) expansion of zinc metal provision (indium is currently a by-product of zinc mining), (2) improving extraction efficiency, (3) new mining activities where indium is a by-product of other metals and (4) mining of historic residues. Potential future constraints and environmental impacts of these supply options are also briefly discussed.     

Performance improvement of a double-pass V-corrugated solar air heater under recycling operation

The device performance of double-pass V-corrugated solar air heaters with external recycle was investigated experimentally and theoretically. The comparison between V-corrugated and flat-plate collectors was made to show the thermal efficiency improvement with various operating parameters. The results show that the collector efficiency improvement of the recycling double-pass V-corrugated operation is much higher than those of the other configurations under various recycle ratios and mass flow rates. However, there exists the penalty on the power consumption increment due to implementing V-corrugated channel into the solar air heaters, an economic consideration on both the heat-transfer efficiency enhancement and power consumption increment for the double-pass V-corrugated device was also delineated. The experimental setup was carried out to validate the theoretical predictions, and the fairly good agreement between both results was achieved with the error analysis of 0.48-1.83%.     

Sensitivity of modelled gross primary productivity to topographic effects on surface radiation: A case study in the Cotter River Catchment, Australia

Gross primary productivity (GPP) is a critical response variable for many environmental problems, including terrestrial carbon accounting and the calculation of catchment water balances. Various approaches for modelling GPP have been developed and applied at continental and landscapes scales, but little attention has been given to the sensitivity of GPP to the spatial scale of its driving variables. A key driving variable is surface radiation (R_s) which is influenced by both meso-scale factors (latitude, time of year, cloudiness) and the topographic variables of slope, aspect and horizon shading. We compared the sensitivity of modelled GPP to two different sources of surface radiation (R_s): (1) the ANUCLIM method which only captures the meso-scaled factors; and (2) the SRAD method which incorporates the topographic effects GPP was calculated using the radiation use efficiency (RUE) model (Roderick et al., 2001) to discern general patterns of vegetation productivity at a sub-catchment (i.e. sub-water shed) scale. The radiation use efficiency approach uses the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from satellite data (MODIS TERRA), along with estimates of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere (R_o) and canopy (R_s). In this approach, R_o and R_s capture the influence of diffuse irradiance in canopy photosynthesis and vegetation productivity respectively. This research showed that R_s calculated using the SRAD program provides important discrimination of GPP regimes at a sub-catchment scale, as the result of minimum and maximum daily radiation varying between shaded and exposed surfaces. However, mean daily radiation at a whole-of-catchment scale did not differ between the two sources as the differences in the minimum and maximum daily values tend to cancel each other out. Applications of GPP models therefore need to consider whether topographic factors are important and select the appropriate source of R_s values. GPP models should also reflect understanding of radiation use efficiency. However, further research is required especially with respect to the influence of water stress on plant response.     

核应急辐射环境监测的准备和响应

日本核泄漏事故引发的核危机为人类安全和平地利用核能又一次敲响了警钟.核事故应急工作作为减小核电站危害环境和公众安全的最后屏障,将起到重要的作用,必须做好相关的准备和响应工作.核应急辐射环境监测工作是核应急工作的重要组成部分,在对核应急辐射环境监测进行准备和响应时主要遵循实用性、适用性和适度性并兼顾常规和应急监测的“平战...     

Social cost‐benefit analysis of intensive versus traditional shrimp farming: A case study from India

This paper attempts a social cost‐benefit analysis of intensive versus traditional shrimp farming in West Bengal, India. Using primary data, the paper shows that although intensive shrimp farming yields high returns as compared to traditional shrimp farming, when the opportunity costs and environmental costs of shrimp farming, including disease risk, are accounted for, intensive shrimp farming loses its advantage. Sensitivity analysis shows that if the expected benefits were to fall short by 15% and costs rise by a similar proportion, intensive shrimp farmers would report higher losses than traditional shrimp farmers. Large traditional shrimp farmers continue to report positive net returns. These results are also most pronounced for small and marginal intensive shrimp farmers. Further, if the probability of disease risk is also accounted for, intensive shrimp farming reports significant losses whereas traditional shrimp farming in most cases shows positive net returns. In light of the high social costs and risks, this paper questions the rationale behind promoting intensive shrimp farming, especially among small and marginal holdings, as an income‐generating activity or poverty alleviation measure in the absence of an enabling environment. It suggests that policymakers need to factor in sustainability concerns and the local context when formulating policies to promote intensive shrimp farming.