洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

考虑公众选择偏好的应急避难安置双阶段选址-分配模型

为使开放避难场所符合公众自行避难的实际情况,借鉴Huff模型量化公众选择行为,构建双阶段选址-分配模型,第1阶段确定开放避难场所位置,第2阶段将溢出容量的灾民二次分配到有剩余容量的避难场所,并利用改进粒子群算法进行求解。研究结果表明：双阶段选址-分配模型能够实现同一需求点灾民前往不同避难场所的过程,管理者干预政策能够使服务人数大幅度增加,避免资源浪费、灾民流离失所且二次分配情况主要依赖于第1阶段的结果。研究结果可为管理部门规划应急避难场所提供参考。     

基于鱼类产卵需求的栖息地修复效果评价

根据鱼类产卵需求对工程修复效果开展评价对掌握栖息地状态和指导工程设计极其重要。以黑水河为实例,从鱼类产卵的生境需求出发,结合现场监测和数值模拟方法量化产卵栖息地的参照状态,构建指标体系进行河流鱼类产卵期栖息地质量评价,以获得修复工程对鱼类产卵生境真实的修复效果。结果表明：2019—2021年黑水河产卵期的鱼类栖息地综合评价得分分别为63.04、83.52与83.52,鱼类产卵栖息地得到改善,评价结果表明生态修复工程对产卵栖息地有明显修复效果;黑水河不同河段鱼类产卵栖息地质量空间分布上呈现出修复前下游河段(R4~R6)优于上游河段(R1~R3)的特征,修复后不同河段评分均有不同程度的增加,增幅为21.33%~59.15%;通过对敏感因子进行溯源可知,修复前黑水河鱼类产卵期栖息地质量主要受河流连通性和水力条件限制,修复后连通性得到大幅度改善,但水体流速和弗劳德数与保护鱼类产卵的偏好状态仍具有一定差距,后期修复工作应结合鱼类产卵喜好针对水体流态进行局部塑造和改善。

     

Water saving effect on integrated water resource management

This study proposes an improved integrated water resource management (IWRM), in which water conservation was analyzed for the entire water use process. A multi-objective optimization method was applied to optimize the IWRM, which investigated the reduction of freshwater consumption and the total water supply cost. Customer's preference for saving water and an end use analysis (EUA) was applied in the water conservation analysis. Taking Tianjin as the study area, a reduction in customer's economic pressure (EP) was utilized to evaluate the degree of the customer's preference for saving water. The results revealed that agriculture had a greater preference for saving water than other sectors, where as the public had the weakest motivation for saving water. Improving the transportation method could contribute 62.1% of the total water savings in the agriculture sector. The optimization of the IWRM demonstrated that the local freshwater savings would be 21.5%, and the total cost for water supplies would decrease by 13%. However, a government subsidy of 87.5 million Yuan would be needed. Additionally, by analyzing the change in the amount of water savings affected by water price, the appropriate water price increase range was suggested to be 1.5–1.7 times the original price.     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

Why do <Emphasis Type="Italic">Manduca sexta</Emphasis> feed from white flowers? Innate and learnt colour preferences in a hawkmoth

Flower colour is an important signal used by flowering plants to attract pollinators. Many anthophilous insects have an innate colour preference that is displayed during their first foraging bouts and which could help them locate their first nectar reward. Nevertheless, learning capabilities allow insects to switch their colour preferences with experience and thus, to track variation in floral nectar availability. Manduca sexta, a crepuscular hawkmoth widely studied as a model system for sensory physiology and behaviour, visits mostly white, night-blooming flowers lacking UV reflectance throughout its range in the Americas. Nevertheless, the spectral sensitivity of the feeding behaviour of naïve moths shows a narrow peak around 450 nm wavelengths, suggesting an innate preference for the colour blue. Under more natural conditions (i.e. broader wavelength reflectance) than in previous studies, we used dual choice experiments with blue- and white-coloured feeders to investigate the innate preference of naïve moths and trained different groups to each colour to evaluate their learning capabilities. We confirmed the innate preference of M. sexta for blue and found that these moths were able to switch colour preferences after training experience. These results unequivocally demonstrate that M. sexta moths innately prefer blue when presented against white flower models and offer novel experimental evidence supporting the hypothesis that learning capabilities could be involved in their foraging preferences, including their widely observed attraction to white flowers in nature.     

Field-breeding birds on organic and conventional arable farms in the Netherlands

In this study territory densities of field-breeding farmland birds were compared on pairwise-selected organic and conventional arable farms for two years. Differences in territory densities between the two farm types were explained examining the effects of three factors on territory densities: (1) non-crop habitats, (2) crop types and (3) within-crop factors. In both years, densities of most species did not differ between organic and conventional farms. Only skylark and lapwing were more abundant on organic farms, but only skylarks showed a consistent pattern over both years. Differences in crop types grown between the two systems were the only explaining factor for differences in densities of skylark. For lapwing, the difference was only partly due to differences in crop type, but differences in within-crop factors (probably as a result of crop management) were likely to have had an effect as well. There were no significant differences in abundance of non-crop habitats between the two farming systems, so this could not explain differences in territory densities.     

Role of Familiarity and Preference in Reproductive Success in Ex Situ Breeding Programs

Abstract: Success of captive‐breeding programs centers on consistent reproduction among captive animals. However, many individuals do not reproduce even when they are apparently healthy and presented with mates. Mate choice can affect multiple parameters of reproductive success, including mating success, offspring production, offspring survival, and offspring fecundity. We investigated the role of familiarity and preference on reproductive success of female Columbia Basin pygmy rabbits (Brachylagus idahoensis) as measured by litter production, litter size, average number of young that emerged from the burrow, and average number of young that survived to 1 year. We conducted these studies on pygmy rabbits at the Oregon Zoo (Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.) and Washington State University (Pullman, Washington, U.S.A.) from February to June 2006, 2007, and 2008. Before mating, we housed each female adjacent to 2 males (neighbors). Female preference for each potential mate was determined on the basis of behavioral interactions observed and measured between the rabbits. We compared reproductive success between females mated with neighbor and non‐neighbor males and between females mated with preferred and nonpreferred males. Our findings suggest that mating with a neighbor compared with a non‐neighbor and mating with a preferred neighbor compared with a nonpreferred neighbor increased reproductive success in female pygmy rabbits. Litter production, average number of young that emerged, and average number of young that survived to 1 year were higher in rabbits that were neighbors before mating than in animals who were not neighbors. Pairing rabbits with a preferred partner increased the probability of producing a litter and was significantly associated with increased litter size. In captive breeding programs, mates are traditionally selected on the basis of genetic parameters to minimize loss of genetic diversity and inbreeding coefficients. Our results suggest that integrating genetic information with social dynamics and behavioral measures of preference may increase the reproductive output of the pygmy rabbit captive‐breeding program. Our findings are consistent with the idea that allowing mate choice and familiarity increase the reproductive success of captive‐breeding programs for endangered species.     

管制员安全能力模型研究

为准确评价管制员安全能力,基于能力的定义和管制员工作职责,界定管制员安全能力的内涵;依据该内涵及其工作特性,建立由身体素质、业务素质和意识3个结构维度组成的管制员安全能力模型。其中,身体素质包括生理状况和心理状况;业务素质包括教育状况、培训状况、技能状况和经验状况;意识包括安全意识和工作意识。在各项指标性质差异较大情况下,利用功效系数法实现评价指标的标准化以减小误差,客观反映指标情况,同时采用G1-法和熵值法集成的主客观综合赋权法确定指标的权重,在一定程度上弥补主客观单一赋权的不足,最后通过逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)评价管制员安全能力。结果表明,按照从大到小排序对管制员安全能力的影响因素依次为意识、身体素质和业务素质。就对所论能力的影响而言,心理状况强于生理状况;技能状况强教育、培训和经验状况;安全意识对意识的影响大于工作意识。     

基于尺寸效应的采空区危险度RS-TOPSIS法辨识

为准确预测地下采空区危险性,选用采空区结构的跨度、暴露面积、高度、埋深、矿柱尺寸布置等5个采空区危险度结构尺寸影响因素作为评价指标,建立采空区危险度粗糙集-逼近理想解排序法(RS-TOPSIS)综合评价体系。基于粗糙集理论(RS)中的粗糙依赖度,通过计算评价指标与评价等级间的粗糙依赖度得到指标权重。以40个采空区探测系统(CMS)实测采空区作为评价对象,根据单指标分类区间下限构造5个不同等级的典型采空区,结合逼近理想解的排序法(TOPSIS),实现采空区危险度5级贴近度的分类,并辨识实测采空区危险度。研究结果表明,用为采空区群矿山建立的采空区危险度基于结构尺寸效应的RS-TOPSIS法,能够实现危险度5级分类辨识,辨识结果与采空区危险度数值分析结果吻合度为92.5%。