Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

基于BDD考虑共因失效的接触网系统可靠性分析

为分析共因失效对高速铁路接触网系统的影响，将二元决策图(Binary Decision Diagram，BDD)与共因失效理论引入到接触网系统可靠性分析中。利用逻辑相邻优先组合法(Logic Neighbor Priority Connect，LNPC)将高速铁路接触网系统的故障树模型转化为BDD模型并求取其可靠度表达式，利用隐式方法对考虑了共因失效的接触网系统可靠度进行计算，利用MATLAB绘制考虑共因失效和不考虑共因失效情况下接触网系统可靠度变化曲线。研究结果表明:提出的分析方法适用于接触网系统的可靠性分析，为接触网系统的可靠性分析提供了一定的理论依据。     

航空器场内失事应急演练评估指标体系与评估方法研究

针对目前我国民用运输机场航空器场内失事应急救援综合演练缺乏有效评估体系的现状，通过对演练过程进行系统分析，构建航空器场内失事应急救援演练评估指标体系，涵盖消防、医疗、公安、媒体应对、运行指挥中心、地服、飞行区7个组织部门的2级指标。结合航空器场内失事救援的业务特点以及指标体系内在逻辑，设计相应的评估方法，对开展的航空器场内失事应急演练进行评估；最后，以国内2个机场的相关应急演练过程为典型示例，进行应用分析。研究结果表明:构建的演练评估指标体系及评估方法能较好地应用于实际应急演练过程，进而在演练评估结果和建议的基础上，实现应急演练的持续改进。     

Landscape trajectory of natural boreal forest loss as an impediment to green infrastructure

Loss of natural forests by forest clearcutting has been identified as a critical conservation challenge worldwide. This study addressed forest fragmentation and loss in the context of the establishment of a functional green infrastructure as a spatiotemporally connected landscape-scale network of habitats enhancing biodiversity, favorable conservation status, and ecosystem services. Through retrospective analysis of satellite images, we assessed a 50- to 60-year spatiotemporal clearcutting impact trajectory on natural and near-natural boreal forests across a sizable and representative region from the Gulf of Bothnia to the Scandinavian Mountain Range in northern Fennoscandia. This period broadly covers the whole forest clearcutting period; thus, our approach and results can be applied to comprehensive impact assessment of industrial forest management. The entire study region covers close to 46,000 km² of forest-dominated landscape in a late phase of transition from a natural or near-natural to a land-use modified state. We found a substantial loss of intact forest, in particular of large, contiguous areas, a spatial polarization of remaining forest on regional scale where the inland has been more severely affected than the mountain and coastal zones, and a pronounced impact on interior forest core areas. Salient results were a decrease in area of the largest intact forest patch from 225,853 to 68,714 ha in the mountain zone and from 257,715 to 38,668 ha in the foothills zone, a decrease from 75% to 38% intact forest in the inland zones, a decrease in largest patch core area (assessed by considering 100-m patch edge disturbance) from 6114 to 351 ha in the coastal zone, and a geographic imbalance in protected forest with an evident predominance in the mountain zone. These results demonstrate profound disturbance of configuration of the natural forest landscape and disrupted connectivity, which challenges the establishment of functional green infrastructure. Our approach supports the identification of forests for expanded protection and conservation-oriented forest landscape restoration.     

AHP-SWOT法在城市圈建设中耕地保护策略分析中的应用——以湖北赤壁为例

在实地调研湖北赤壁的基础上,探讨AHP-SWOT法在城市圈建设过程中的耕地保护策略分析中的应用.结果表明,耕地异地占补平衡是主要优势,耕地数量持续减少是主要劣势,新一轮土地利用总体规划是主要机遇,城市圈建设占用耕地是主要威胁,建议赤壁市在城市圈建设过程中应发挥耕地异地占补平衡优势,回避城市圈建设占用耕地的威胁.     

某货车侧翻水污染事件的环境损害评估方法探索

随着我国进入突发水污染事件高发期,面临的水环境形势日益严峻.为了震慑环境污染行为,保证受损的环境资源得到恢复和补偿,量化突发性水污染事件造成的经济损失显得至关重要.本文以重庆市某货车侧翻污染事件为例,构建了一套突发水污染事件环境损害的量化评估方法,并用该方法从财产损害、生态环境资源损害、应急处置行政事务投入费用和调查评估费用这4个方面量化了该事件造成的环境污染损害.     

采用颜色空间表征ANAMMOX启动与冲击过程

厌氧氨氧化(ANAMMOX)是一种高效、节能的脱氮技术,但是其启动过程和稳定状态的表征目前仍缺乏一个简单易行的方法.针对这一问题,在水质分析的基础上,采用颜色空间重点监测ANAMMOX启动过程中污泥的颜色变化,并借助高通量测序技术对微生物菌群的种类和数量等进行分析.结果表明:(1)根据水质特征,整个启动过程可分为活性迟滞期、活性增强期、负荷提高期、稳定运行期.与此同时,HSV、CIELAB颜色空间的指标,整体上呈现先降低后升高的趋势,然后保持稳定.污泥颜色的变化与水质的变化以及分子生物学特征中优势菌群的变迁一致,因此,三者之间具有相关性,进而表明,采用颜色空间可对ANAMMOX启动过程进行准确表征;(2)当遇到高负荷引起的冲击时,H、S、a~*、b~*、C_(ab)~*等指标与总无机氮(TIN)容积去除速率均呈现降低的趋势,而H_(ab)出现了突升,但均能准确反映出系统的冲击特性.提出了基于颜色空间表征ANAMMOX启动各阶段的方法并建立了一套冲击过程指标体系,为颜色空间在ANAMMOX系统中的应用提供了理论基础.     

基于环境因子和邻近信息的土壤属性空间分布预测

为探索乡镇尺度上土壤属性空间分布预测的最佳方法,以江西省万年县齐埠镇为例,借助四方位搜索法、地统计学和遥感影像分析技术提取环境因子（地形因子和植被覆盖指数）和邻近信息[w（有机质）与w（速效钾）],构建OK法（普通克里金法）、RK1法（仅基于环境因子的回归克里金法）以及RK2法（基于环境因子和邻近信息的回归克里金法）对齐埠镇耕地表层（0~20 cm）土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）空间分布进行预测.结果表明:齐埠镇土壤w（有机质）平均值为35.03 g/kg,w（速效钾）平均值为96.73 mg/kg,均为中等空间变异性.对62个样点进行建模,16个测试样点进行独立验证的误差分析表明,RK2法对土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）预测结果的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均相对误差较OK法分别降低了18.05%、18.01%、21.77%和7.25%、9.49%、9.84%;较RK1法分别降低了22.48%、20.91%、22.02%和9.27%、12.61%、13.52%.研究显示,RK2法明显提高了土壤w（有机质）、w（速效钾）空间分布模拟精度,并且存在改进和提高的空间.      

碳排放影响因子与碳足迹文献综述:基于研究方法视角

从研究方法的角度出发,对近年来国内外碳排放影响因子及碳足迹的相关研究进行文献综述。根据碳排放影响因子的研究方法—情景分析法、因素分解法中的指数分解法以及其他计量模型,介绍了国内外关于碳排放影响因子的研究现状,最后对方法进行归类和对比。根据碳足迹研究方法—投入产出法、生命周期评价法、IPCC法以及其他模型,分析了国内外关于碳足迹的研究进展。最后通过总结,对碳排放和碳足迹的未来研究方向进行了展望。     

基于主成分分析法的陕北地区可持续发展对比研究

基于可持续发展基本理论,选取60项指标建立陕北地区可持续发展评价指标体系,采用软件SPSS(19.0)进行主成分分析,分别对延安市、榆林市2000—2014年的可持续发展水平、可持续发展潜力和可持续发展协调度进行动态对比分析。结果表明延安市、榆林市发展基本趋于一致:可持续发展水平较高,但可持续发展潜力明显不足,可持续发展协调度较低;制约其可持续发展的主要因素在于资源发展动力不足、产业结构单一、环境的恶化及治理的低效。