Resampling from stochastic simulations

To model the uncertainty of an estimate of a global property, the estimation process is repeated on multiple simulated fields, with the same sampling strategy and estimation algorithm. As opposed to conventional bootstrap, this resampling scheme allows for spatially correlated data and the common situation of preferential and biased sampling. The practice of this technique is developed on a large data set where the reference sampling distributions are available. Comparison of the resampled distributions to that reference shows the probability intervals obtained by resampling to be reasonably accurate and conservative, provided the original and actual sample has been corrected for the major biases induced by preferential sampling.Andre G. Journel is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University with a joint appointment in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences. He is, also, Director of the Stanford Center for Reservoir Forecasting. Professor Journel has pioneered applications of geostatistical techniques in the mining/petroleum industry and extended his expertise to environmental applications and repository site characterization. Most notably, he developed the concept of non-parametric geostatistics and stochastic imaging with application to modeling uncertainty in reservoir/site characterization. Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement CR819407, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

天津地区表层土中饱和烃的组成与分布特征

为揭示天津地区不同环境功能区表层土壤中饱和烃污染特征及其来源,分析了该地区几个具代表性的环境功能区表层土(0～25cm)中饱和烃化合物的组成和分布特征,重点讨论了正构烷烃和甾、萜烷烃类化合物的组成、分布及环境意义,比较了不同层次(亚层)(0～5cm,5～10cm,10～15cm,15～20cm,20～25cm)中这些化合物及相关的地球化学参数的变化规律。结果表明,不同采样点以及同一采样点的不同亚层之间正构烷烃的组成特征存在不同程度的差别,而甾、萜烷烃类化合物组成与分布特征均较为接近。正构烷烃以及甾、萜类地球化学参数综合分析揭示,不同采样点之间正构烷烃的来源多样,中低分子量的正构烷烃主要来源于石油等化石燃料,高分子量正构烷烃主要来源于高等植物蜡的分解产物,但甾、萜烷烃类化合物的来源是一致的,且主要来源于石油烃污染。不同采样点表层土中饱和烃的来源及污染程度均存在一定的差别,市区、油田附近、经济开发区以及近郊区受石油源影响较重,北部山区污染较轻,且主要来源于高等植物的降解。除个别采样点外,同一采样点不同亚层之间饱和烃的组成特征基本一致,表明污染源是一致的,主要来源由表层污染物往下迁移所致。     

传统农业区土地利用对土壤氮素季节动态变化的影响——以官厅水库上游延庆盆地为例

土地利用对土壤养分时空动态变化的影响,不仅影响到土壤中养分元素的利用效率,同时会影响到养分流失的危险性和区域非点源污染的形成。本文通过野外采样分析,按照不同时期对官厅水库上游延庆盆地内的玉米地、蔬菜地、果园、其他经济类用地的土壤全氮含量进行了测定;分析了不同农业用地影响下土壤氮素的季节动态变化特征和土壤垂直剖面变化。结果发现:(1)0～40cm是玉米地养分活跃层;蔬菜地的养分含量在0～10cm土层变化最剧烈;果园整个剖面上养分变化均较剧烈;其它经济用地在25～40cm土层养分变化较大;(2)果园和蔬菜地是研究区内养分活动最活跃的土地利用方式,蔬菜地的表层养分流失风险性最高,对于地表水和地下水具有很高的潜在影响;果园在整个剖面上养分变化较大,其发生养分的淋溶流失的风险性最高;玉米和其他经济用地养分变化不大。研究结果建议,传统农业区在开展农业结构调整时,尤其是将传统的农作物种植改为蔬菜地和果园时,必须加强对农田生态系统研究,实施严格的科学管理,提高养分的利用效率,降低对环境的影响。     

Forest growth in the light of the thermodynamic theory of ecological systems

The observed growth of a particular forest stand can be described by many models and explained by some of them. The forest growth models are also successfully applied for extrapolating the growth curve. However, the known models of forest growth are not “one-point” models. They are not designed to predict the future growth of a forest stand from its current state: the model parameters either are not directly measurable or cannot be measured with relevant accuracy. This article is an attempt to use Jørgensen–Svirezhev theory as a new clue to the choice of variables that determines forest growth. The postulates of this theory combined with the pipe theory of tree growth lead to conclusion that biomass of a stand should be proportional to the four-fifths power of its age. Empirical validation, however, disclosed that calendar age is rather approximate measure of ecosystem ontogeny. Delayed development or intensive thinning of a forest stand at the early stages leads to rejuvenation bias. Thus derived 4/5-law model approximates well-known Chapman–Richards model in the neighborhood of the inflection point, and is applicable to middle-aged forest stands.     

黄金周对休闲产业的贡献与冲击

我国自1999年开始实施旅游黄金周政策以来,出现了前所未有的假日旅游热,与旅游相关的休闲产业也得到了迅速的发展．扩大了内需,刺激了经济的增长．初步形成了以旅游为主导的假日经济,成为我国社会经济文化的一个新现象,也使人民开始了各种新颖的休闲方式．然而在推动休闲产业迅速发展的同时也暴露出许多问题引起了各方的关注．当前,我国的休假制度做出了重大改革,取消了“五一”黄金周,继而出现了一系列的黄金短假期．该文主要分析了黄金周对休闲产业的贡献与冲击,提出了我国发展休闲产业可采取的一些对策。参5．     

砷尾矿污染土壤的细菌群落结构多样性及其相关环境影响因子分析

以湖南石门雄黄尾矿污染土壤为对象,研究纵向不同深度、横向不同距离土样中的重金属污染程度以及细菌群落结构变化规律,查明砷污染土壤的核心微生物组成并将其与土壤理化指标进行共存网络图分析.结果表明:该尾矿区的土壤各项重金属指标严重超标,尤以铅(626.54 mg·kg?1,Ei=105.48)、砷(1804.75 mg·kg...     

基于数据库的植物功能性状研究现状文献计量学分析

植物功能性状数据库是功能生态学研究的重要工具.了解基于植物功能性状数据库的植物功能性状研究现状,对探讨功能多样性和生物多样性具有重要的指导意义.介绍植物功能性状数据库的类型、影响力的评价方法和使用方法,并整理了17个植物功能性状库(附表).同时,通过Web of Science检索了2008-2018年间基于植物功能性...     

夏季渭河西安段溶解性有机质(DOM)的特征、分布及来源分析

通过紫外吸收光谱,三维荧光光谱结合平行因子分析(EEMs-PARAFAC)方法及主成分分析(PCA),研究了夏季渭河西安段水体中的溶解性有机质(DOM)的组成、来源,及其与水质指标的相关性.在研究区域共检出2种类别5个不同的DOM组分,分别为类腐殖质荧光组分C1、C2、C3、C5和1个类蛋白类荧光组分C4,5个组分具有...     

Assessing the current state of ecological connectivity in a large marine protected area system

The establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a critical step in ensuring the continued persistence of marine biodiversity. Although the area protected in MPAs is growing, the movement of individuals (or larvae) among MPAs, termed connectivity, has only recently been included as an objective of many MPAs. As such, assessing connectivity is often neglected or oversimplified in the planning process. For promoting population persistence, it is important to ensure that protected areas in a system are functionally connected through dispersal or adult movement. We devised a multi-species model of larval dispersal for the Australian marine environment to evaluate how much local scale connectivity is protected in MPAs and determine whether the extensive system of MPAs truly functions as a network. We focused on non-migratory species with simplified larval behaviors (i.e., passive larval dispersal) (e.g., no explicit vertical migration) as an illustration. Of all the MPAs analyzed (approximately 2.7 million km²), outside the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef, <50% of MPAs (46-80% of total MPA area depending on the species considered) were functionally connected. Our results suggest that Australia's MPA system cannot be referred to as a single network, but rather a collection of numerous smaller networks delineated by natural breaks in the connectivity of reef habitat. Depending on the dispersal capacity of the taxa of interest, there may be between 25 and 47 individual ecological networks distributed across the Australian marine environment. The need to first assess the underlying natural connectivity of a study system prior to implementing new MPAs represents a key research priority for strategically enlarging MPA networks. Our findings highlight the benefits of integrating multi-species connectivity into conservation planning to identify opportunities to better incorporate connectivity into the design of MPA systems and thus to increase their capacity to support long-term, sustainable biodiversity outcomes.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.