南方冰冻雨雪灾害年的环流及气象要素异常的统计分析

利用NCEP/NCAR的2.5°×2.5°格点的逐日再分析资料,通过分析我国南方19个冰冻雨雪灾害年的36个冰冻雨雪天气个例的环流形势,总结了发生冰冻雨雪天气的4种天气类型:北脊南槽型、乌山脊型、横槽南支型和高纬低涡型,后两种天气类型持续时间长、影响范围广,极易造成南方严重的持续冰冻雨雪灾害;进一步分析南方持续冰雪天气的物理量场和要素场特征,结果表明,对流层低层850~700 hPa辐合中心较垂直上升速度中心提前1~2 d出现,预示低温雨雪增强;冻雨严重年份在700 hPa维持大于0℃的融化层,南支槽前的西南急流为雨雪天气提供了水汽和热量输送,这种配置利于冻雨天气的发展和维持。天气类型的建立及气象要素的统计有利于为南方冰雪灾害天气预测预警服务。     

明清苏浙沿海台风风暴潮灾害序列重建与特征分析

在系统搜集、整理明清苏浙沿海潮灾记录基础上,建立风暴潮频率辨识方法,复原台风风暴潮灾害750次,据此建立逐年风暴潮频率序列。分析显示,1460~1480年、1570~1595年、1715~1745年、1785~1810年、1880~1890年为风暴潮活跃期。明清苏浙沿海风暴潮存在45 a、25 a、14 a三种时间尺度周期,其中45 a周期最为显著。气候跃变分析表明,1402年、1457年、1566年、1624年、1652年、1711年、1846年、1880年风暴潮活动趋于活跃;1444年、1477年、1543年、1634年、1799年、1856年风暴潮趋于平静。与1470年以来温度距平曲线对比显示,气候冷暖与风暴潮发生频率有一定正相关性,全球变暖背景下苏浙沿海可能面临更为严重的风暴潮威胁。苏浙地区明清时期风暴潮灾害空间分布差异明显,大部分风暴潮记载集中于长三角、杭州湾地区,苏北地区风暴潮数量少但影响范围广,浙东地区受地形和经济发展程度影响,风暴潮记载数量少且集中于滨海。     

浙江省酸雨的空间分布格局及其未来变化趋势预测

利用浙江省1992、2002年的酸雨监测数据,并利用RAINS-ASIA模型模拟了1990-2030年浙江省酸雨前体物(SO2)的排放量,以及酸沉降超临界负荷面积占研究区域面积比例的变化情况.结果表明,浙江省的酸雨分布范围不断扩大、危害程度不断加重;未来一个时期内,SO2排放量都会维持在较高的水平;酸沉降超临界负荷面积所占比例在经历较快的增长阶段之后,会维持在较为恒定的水平,并呈现出明显的时滞性.     

Convergence or divergence in desertification risk? Scale-based assessment and policy implications in a Mediterranean country

This paper explores changes (1990–2000) in two environmental indexes with the aim of providing empirical evidence on regional and local convergence in an increasing-impact phenomenon such as Land Degradation (LD) in Italy. Convergence analysis for ESAI (Environmental Sensitive Area Index) and LVI (Land Vulnerability Index) was developed at five different geographical scales. Results indicate that territorial disparities in land vulnerability tend to increase during the investigated period following a defined spatial pattern that depends on land quality, the environmental context and the economic performance of regional systems. Finally, the implications this process has on policy strategies aimed at mitigating desertification risk are discussed.     

Seasonal and spatial variability of Po,U and Pu levels in the river catchment area assessed by application of neural-network based classification

The present study deals with the application of self-organizing maps (SOM) in order to model, classify and interpret seasonal and spatial variability of ²¹⁰Po, ²³⁸U and ^239+240Pu levels in the Vistula river basin. The data set represents concentration values for 3 alpha emitters (²¹⁰Po, ²³⁸U and ^239+240Pu) measured in surface water samples collected at 19 different sampling locations (8 in major Vistula stream while 11 in right or left Vistula tributaries) during four seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn) in the framework of a one-year quality monitoring study. The advantages of an SOM algorithm, its classification and visualization ability for environmental data sets, are stressed. The neural-network based classification made it possible to reveal specific patterns related to both seasonal and spatial variability. In the middle and upper part of Vistula catchment as well as in the right-shore tributaries, concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and ²³⁸U during summer and winter are the lowest. Concentrations of ²¹⁰Po and ²³⁸U increase significantly during spring and autumn in the Vistula river catchment, especially in the delta of Vistula river. High concentration of anthropogenic originated ^239+240Pu indicates “site-specific” character of pollution in two large left-shore tributaries located in the middle part of the Vistula drainage area. Efficient classification of sampling locations could lead to an optimization of river radiochemical sampling networks and to a better tracing of natural and anthropogenic changes along Vistula river stream.     

我国典型南方城市臭氧污染特征

分析了我国典型南方城市的臭氧污染特征,选取我国4个有代表性的南方重点城市武汉、宁波、中山和南宁的2013—2015年监测数据,使用EXCEL、ORIGIN和MATLAB等统计软件开展研究,结果表明:我国南方典型城市的臭氧质量浓度分布有明显时间变化特征,超标时间跨度大,部分南方城市与氮氧化物存在较明显负相关性,相关系数高于-0.6;受城市所在不同地理位置、气象因素、大气扩散条件及可能的不同本地排放污染源构成等因素影响,4个城市的近3年臭氧浓度月均值、超标情况和年内峰值均存在一定差异和分组相似性;与部分气象因素也表现出显著相关性。     

浙江省危险废物和污泥处置现状及加强全过程监管工作的探讨

随着近几年经济发展水平的提高,浙江省的危险废物和污泥产生量呈不断增长趋势,它们的产生、贮存、转运和处置过程中的监管压力也逐年增大。总结了浙江省的危险废物产生现状,分析了存在的主要问题,对比了发达国家的相关管理经验,提出了进一步完善浙江省危险废物和污泥全过程监管工作的建议。     

陕南地区清代霜雪灾害及分形特征研究

通过对陕南清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和分析,研究了清代(1644-1911年)陕南霜雪灾害等级、阶段变化及不同等级灾害周期性等。统计分析显示,陕南清代发生霜雪灾害28次,平均每9.57年发生一次;霜雪灾害可划分为轻度、中度、重度三级,各占灾害总频次的21%,72%和7%;清代霜雪灾害可分为4个阶段,其中1644-1668年和1819-1868年的第1、第3阶段为灾害多发期,而1669-1818年和1869-1911年的第2、第4阶段为灾害少发期。霜雪灾害的自相似性揭示了灾害的分形性,分形结果显示陕南地区清代各等级灾害呈周期变化,且这些灾害的集中性非常强。陕南清代轻度、中度和重度霜雪灾害发生分别存在着16～18 a,7～8 a和46 a振荡周期。该地区霜雪灾害的发生主要是偏暖月的持续性降雪、积雪或由寒流引起的气温骤降造成的。初步确定陕南清代发生了两次霜雪灾害气候事件,时间在公元1649-1663年和1817-1842年。     

济南市南部山区降雨特性分析

通过对济南市南部山区50年降雨资料的分析,得出南部山区年降雨量为648mm,降雨季节性明显,降雨量主要集中在6-8月份的降雨特点;采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线拟合了降雨频率曲线,分析了降雨量与频率之间的关系,得出年降雨量在1000mm以上的频率是2%,年降雨量在640mm以上的频率是50%。最后采用一维坡地径流模型对南部山区内的典型丘陵的产流量进行了模拟计算,模拟结果和实测值吻合较好。     

Ants as a Measure of Effectiveness of Habitat Conservation Planning in Southern California

Abstract: In the United States multispecies habitat conservation plans were meant to be the solution to conflicts between economic development and protection of biological diversity. Although now widely applied, questions exist concerning the scientific credibility of the conservation planning process and effectiveness of the plans. We used ants to assess performance of one of the first regional conservation plans developed in the United States, the Orange County Central‐Coastal Natural Community Conservation Plan (NCCP), in meeting its broader conservation objectives of biodiversity and ecosystem‐level protection. We collected pitfall data on ants for over 3 years on 172 sites established across a network of conservation lands in coastal southern California. Although recovered native ant diversity for the study area was high, site‐occupancy models indicated the invasive and ecologically disruptive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) was present at 29% of sites, and sites located within 200 m of urban and agricultural areas were more likely to have been invaded. Within invaded sites, native ants were largely displaced, and their median species richness declined by more than 60% compared with uninvaded sites. At the time of planning, 24% of the 15,133‐ha reserve system established by Orange County NCCP fell within 200 m of an urban or agricultural edge. With complete build out of lands surrounding the reserve, the proportion of the reserve system vulnerable to invasion will grow to 44%. Our data indicate that simply protecting designated areas from development is not enough. If habitat conservation plans are to fulfill their conservation promise of ecosystem‐level protection, a more‐integrated and systematic approach to the process of habitat conservation planning is needed.