浙江省2008~2018年人为源氨排放清单及分布特征

以浙江省为研究区域,通过收集11个地级市各类氨排放的活动水平数据,采用排放因子法建立了2008~2018年浙江省人为源氨排放清单,并利用ArcGIS进行1 km×1 km空间网格分配.结果表明,2008~2018年浙江省人为源氨排放量总体呈现下降趋势,年均下降率约3.97%;2018年浙江省氨排放量为108.52 kt,其中农业源为90.02 kt,非农业源为18.50 kt,排放强度为1.03 t ·km^-2;杭州市、嘉兴市和温州市的氨排放量高于其他城市,分别占全省总量的14.72%、11.86%和11.80%;空间分布特征显示,氨排放主要分布在浙江省北部区域,呈现出"北高南低"的排放趋势;不确定性分析表明,氨排放量模拟平均值为108.37 kt,在95%置信区间的不确定度范围为-5.40%~5.60%.     

黄淮海南部第四纪沉积地层与环境演变研究进展

黄淮海南部位于长江、黄河、淮河等重要水系长期相互作用的关键区域,其沉积地层记录了中国东部第四纪构造活动、海平面变化和人类活动等诸多环境演变的信息。研究显示黄淮海南部第四纪广泛发育海侵—海退旋回层序,然而海侵次数和时间仍存在争议,相关层序地层研究开展较少。基于黄淮海南部地区公开发表的34口典型钻孔,结合3个露头剖面,对地层进行了分区。将黄淮海南部第四系岩石地层划分为连云港平原区、里下河平原区、长江三角洲北翼和南黄海陆架区四个地层区。基于钻孔的岩相和生物相特征,识别出暴露相、风暴潮相和浅海相冷水团沉积三个标志性沉积特征,并将地层划分为五个典型的沉积相组合,即河道—河漫滩相组合、潮间—潮下—浅海相组合、滨岸沼泽—障壁海岸—滨海相组合、潮坪—潮上相组合和三角洲前缘—前三角洲相组合。在此基础上,重建了黄淮海南部第四纪的环境演变历史,结果表明首次海侵时间为早更新世（不早于1.9 Ma）,中更新世后才出现明显的海、陆交替特征。最后,还对年代地层的新方法（如宇生核素）和层序地层的建立进行了展望。     

以南疆为例的区域暴恐袭击风险评估

为探寻暴恐袭击高风险区域,推进公共安全精细化管理,以南疆地区为例,采用网格化社会经济数据、遥感数据和兴趣点(POI)数据等多源地理空间数据,从暴恐分子出现可能性、暴恐袭击目标选择偏好和暴恐袭击后果3个方面建立暴恐袭击风险评估指标体系,根据层次分析法(AHP)-Entropy、聚类分区等确定地理空间指标权重,最终得到南疆地区30″×30″(约1 km×1 km)细粒度的暴恐袭击风险的空间分布情况。结果表明:南疆地区的暴恐袭击高风险以上网格主要位于喀什、和田及阿克苏地区的部分市区和县城,与暴恐袭击历史事件的分布较一致,证明风险评估指标体系的合理性和可行性。     

Redesigning harvest strategies for sustainable fishery management in the face of extreme environmental variability

Short-lived, fast-growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental-population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61)  than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events.