基于Esteban-Marquillas拓展模型的中国农业增长的演进特征

论文基于偏离-份额法的Esteban-Marquillas拓展模型,从份额分量、结构分量、净竞争分量和资源配置分量4方面系统研究了1985—2014年间中国农业生产规模及结构的演进特征。结果表明：1）研究期间,中国农业增加值呈现阶段式增长,种植业和牧业是导致农业增长的主要产业,黄淮海区和长江中下游区是全国农业增长的主要区域。2）八大粮食生产区农业产业份额分量均表现出先剧烈波动、后稳步增长的发展态势;各区域产业结构优势总体较弱且进一步下降;净竞争分量变化具有波动性,种植业、渔业促进区域农业总体竞争力的作用增强,林业和牧业的促进作用减弱;种植业和林业改善区域农业资源配置效应的作用增强,牧业和渔业则相对减弱。3）建议各区域结合产业发展优势,制定相关政策加强区域资源整合、农产品流通与技术合作,促进地区农业稳定发展。研究结果可为我国农业生产结构优化及差异化的发展策略制定提供依据。     

地下水水源地污染防治优先性研究

在总结地下水水源地污染防治相关研究的基础上,提出了地下水水源地污染防治优先性问题,并建立了优先性评价的指标体系,采用基于灰色关联度和理想解法的综合决策方法实现水源地优先性排序.利用优先控制指标以及指标与工程的对应关系,确定了各水源地工程建设的优先次序.应用案例显示,华北平原9大水源地污染防治可按I期和II期分期进行.城镇生活垃圾无害化处理率、工业固废集中处置利用率、林木覆盖率、地下水固有脆弱性4个指标,在各水源地工程建设的优先次序确定过程中出现最为频繁,体现了华北平原地下水水源地普遍存在的问题.     

Industrial land expansion in rural China threatens environmental securities

• China’s rural industrial land (RIL) area quadrupled from 1990 to 2015. • RIL expansion cost 9% of China’s crop production and threatened human/ecosystem safety. • The underprivileged population bears a disproportionally large share of the risks. China’s rural industrialization has been a major driver for its rapid economic growth during the recent decades, but its myriad environmental risks are yet to be fully understood. Based on a comprehensive national land-use data set, our study shows that the area of China’s rural industrial land (RIL) quadrupled during 1990–2015, reaching 39000 km² in 2015, comparable to urbanization in magnitude but with a much greater degree of landscape fragmentation which implies stronger ecological and environmental impacts. About 91% of the protected areas in the central China were within 50 km from rural industrial land, thus exposed to industrial disturbances. Accelerated rural industrial land expansion, particularly in regions under high geo-hazard risks, led to dramatically increased environmental risks, threatening the safety and health of both rural industrial workers and residents. Moreover, negative effects from rural industrial land expansion could partially offset the crop production growth in recent decades. The underprivileged rural population in the west bears a disproportionally large share of the increased environmental risks. China urgently needs to design and implement sustainable policies to restrict and reshape its rural industrialization. This study aims to inspire policy makers and researchers to rethink the current model of industrial expansion and improve rural industrial land planning, which is important for achieving the sustainable development goals of China.     

气温变化对华东居住建筑取暖和降温耗能的影响

利用华东446个气象站点1961-2007年日平均气温资料和RegCM3模式预估的2010-2039年日平均气温资料,分别以10 ℃和22 ℃作为取暖和降温度日的基础温度,采用度日法分析了气温变化对华东居住建筑取暖和降温耗能的影响。结果表明,1961-2007年间,整个华东取暖度日、取暖和降温总度日基本都呈减少趋势,且北部减少多于南部;降温度日在华东多数地区都呈增加趋势,以长江三角洲、浙江东部和福建东部沿海增加较多。2010-2039年间,整个华东取暖度日都将继续减少,且北部减少多于东南部;降温度日都将继续增加,且南部增加多于北部和沿海;取暖和降温总度日在华东北部呈减少趋势,而在南部呈增加趋势。过去47 a间,华东取暖度日的减少远超过降温度日的增加,气温变化总体上有利于居住建筑耗能的减少。未来30 a间,华东取暖和降温度日的变化幅度接近,气温变化对居住建筑耗能的正负影响基本相抵消。     

2011年中国钢铁行业典型有害重金属大气排放清单

根据中国钢铁工业年鉴等统计资料,采用排放因子法,对2011年我国钢铁行业生产活动导致的汞(Hg)、铅(Pb)、镉(Cd)、砷(As)、铬(Cr)、镍(Ni)等6种有害重金属的大气排放及其分布特征进行了研究,并给出了分省区排放清单.结果表明,2011年中国钢铁行业汞、铅、镉、砷、铬、镍大气排放量分别约为18.8, 3745.8, 39.4, 132.2, 241.2, 105.3t;钢铁行业重金属大气排放集中在环渤海经济圈以及长三角地区,其中河北东部及中南部、山东中部等钢铁冶炼企业集中地区重金属大气排放强度较大;钢铁企业内部炼钢工艺对重金属大气排放贡献率较高,其中转炉工序对砷、铅排放贡献率较大,电炉工序对于镉、镍贡献率较大.     

Whole pictures of halogenated disinfection byproducts in tap water from China’s cities

When bromide/iodide is present in source water, hypobromous acid/hypoiodous acid will be formed with addition of chlorine, chloramine, or other disinfectants. Hypobromous acid/hypoiodous acid undergoes reactions with natural organic matter in source water to form numerous brominated/iodinated disinfection byproducts (DBPs). In this study, tap water samples were collected from eight cities in China. With the aid of electrospray ionization-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry by setting precursor ion scans of m/z 35, m/z 81, and m/z 126.9, whole pictures of polar chlorinated, brominated, and iodinated DBPs in the tap water samples were revealed for the first time. Numerous polar halogenated DBPs were detected, including haloacetic acids, newly identified halogenated phenols, and many new/unknown halogenated compounds. Total organic chlorine, total organic bromine, and total organic iodine were also measured to indicate the total levels of all chlorinated, brominated, and iodinated DBPs in the tap water samples. The total organic chlorine concentrations ranged from 26.8 to 194.0 μg·L^–1 as Cl, with an average of 109.2 μg·L^–1 as Cl; the total organic bromine concentrations ranged from below detection limit to 113.3 μg·L^–1 as Br, with an average of 34.7 μg·L^–1 as Br; the total organic iodine concentrations ranged from below detection limit to 16.4 μg·L^–1 as I, with an average of 9.1 μg·L^–1 as I; the total organic halogen concentrations ranged from 31.3 to 220.4 μg·L^–1 as Cl, with an average of 127.2 μg·L^–1 as Cl.     

基于净初级生产力的中国各地生态足迹均衡因子测算

生态足迹作为一种非货币化的生态系统评估工具,是近年来国际上一种重要的判别可持续发展程度的生物物理量方法。均衡因子是生态足迹计算中的一个重要参数,其是否准确直接影响到计算结果的可靠性与可比性。随着生态足迹方法的广泛应用,其标准化和本地化研究成为迫切的需要。为便于区域水平上的生态足迹空间分析,采用中国2001年1km MODIS数据,根据植被的净初级生产力(net primary production,NPP),计算出全国和不同省份各种土地类型的均衡因子。结果表明,就中国平均均衡因子而言,农地和建筑用地为1.71,林地和能源用地为1.41,畜牧地为0.44,渔业水域为0.35;就不同省份而言,由于区域内不同土地利用类型的相对生产能力不同,因而均衡因子各不相同,但大体上呈现农地>林地>畜牧地>渔业水域的规律。     

花岗岩地区水蚀荒漠化问题探讨——以澄源河流域为例

以安徽省绩溪县澄源河流域为例,说明我国南方受干旱影响的亚湿润地带花岗岩地区水蚀荒漠化的存在,并探讨了其成因及危害。该流域１９８４年水蚀荒漠化面积为７．５６ｋｍ２,占流域总面积的１８．０３％;经过１０ａ的治理取得了一些成就和经验,至１９９６年水蚀荒漠化的面积已减少到２．５６ｋｍ２,占流域总面积的６．１１％,获得了可观的经济、社会和环境效益。事实说明只要采取一系列预防和治理措施,荒漠化过程是可以逆转的。     

Tracking Chinese newspaper coverage of elephant ivory through topic modeling

Mass media worldwide has contributed to increasing awareness of the illegal wildlife trade and its significant impact on wildlife conservation. We used mass media coverage as a proxy for macro-level public opinion to analyze the media framing of elephant ivory in 6394 Chinese newspaper articles published from 2000 to 2021 and thus determine the effects of wildlife policies on public opinion. We focused on 2 events: the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) approval of China as a trading partner in the purchase and import of ivory stockpiles from Africa in July 2008 and the Chinese government's announcement of a domestic ivory ban in December 2016. Using latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling, we identified 8 topics about elephant ivory and grouped them into 3 frames: ivory arts and culture, ivory crimes, and elephant conservation. Over the last 2 decades, topics related to ivory crimes remained the most prevalent in news articles. Topics about ivory arts and culture showed a significant shift in media salience before and after the 2 events (from 0.44 to 0.19 and from 0.08 to 0.15, respectively, p < 0.05), whereas the other 2 frames did not change significantly. Contrary to popular belief, our results indicated that Chinese macro-level public opinion on ivory had become more negative following the CITES approval of ivory importation and less negative after the ivory ban announcement, at least for certain periods. The relationship between mass media, public opinion, and wildlife trade policies is complex and requires further examination of the sociopolitical dynamics that influence media narratives. Our results showed the value of topic modeling in monitoring and assessing media representations of wildlife issues in the era of big data. Conservationists should remain vigilant of mass media coverage and collaborate with media practitioners to produce comprehensive narratives on wildlife issues if resources permit.     

我国南海海域渔业环境保护法律问题与对策

我国南海渔业活动及其以外的人类活动产生的环境问题,严重污染了南海海域的水质,威胁着南海渔业资源的可持续发展。我国南海海域渔业环境保护法律体系已形成,提供了较为合理的制度安排。但仍存在一些法律问题,其中以环境影响评价制度、海洋环境监测制度和海水养殖污染防治制度等方面的问题较为突出。因此本文提出以下法律对策:明确渔业部门在环境影响评价制度中的法律地位,加强渔业海域环境监测的协调机制和完善海水养殖污染防治制度,以期依靠法治的力量保护南海渔业资源的可持续发展。