1980年以来中国大宗作物空间格局变化分析

利用1980～2014年间的大宗作物(玉米、水稻、小麦、棉花、油菜)面积数据,以省级行政区为研究单元,采用多种数理统计和GIS空间分析技术,结合同期作物之间的竞争性用地关系,对全国上述五类大宗作物的空间分布格局及其变化特征进行分析.研究结果表明:玉米的空间分布相对较均衡;小麦的空间格局总的变化不明显但是省际分布最不均衡;棉花近30 a来空间格局变化极其显著,其面积重心从河南境内不断地向西北地区移动,目前位于甘肃省境内;油菜的面积重心自湖北境内不断地向南推移到湖南境内,水稻的面积重心则自江西境内逐渐向北移动到湖北境内.另外,部分区域的同期作物(如油菜与小麦、棉花与春玉米)空间格局变化存在明显的“消-长”关系,特别是在甘肃和内蒙,油菜小麦的面积变化有着极强的负相关性,其pearson系数低于-0.8.作物种植的成本收益变化是造成这些大宗作物空间格局变化的主要原因,城市化发展的程度、农民非农就业机会的高低、同期作物之间的比较效益差距等也是这些大宗作物时空格局产生变化的重要原因.     

基于BML生产率指数的中国旅游业能源效率评价与影响因素研究

为减少旅游业能源消耗,实现旅游低碳绿色发展,探讨如何提高旅游业能源效率,基于包含非期望产出的方向性距离函数,首先构建了适应旅游业的Biennial Malmquist-Luenberger(BML)效率指数,以中国30个省市2005~2013年旅游业为实证对象,测度了其能源效率,9 a来旅游业能源效率变化源泉可被分解为全要素生产率、资本对能源替代效应、劳动对能源替代效应、能源结构效应和产出结构效应5项影响因素。研究发现:(1)中国旅游业能源效率整体上处于较低水平,旅游业能源效率可以扩张提升的比例较大。(2)整体上全要素生产率、资本对能源替代效应、劳动对能源替代效应和能源结构效应的提升能促进旅游业能源效率提高。(3)近3 a来劳动和资本投入的能源替代效应对旅游业能源效率变化的作用超过了全要素生产率。(4)区域层面上,东部地区旅游业能源效率高于中西部地区,主要由地区间旅游业对资本投入使用和能源消耗结构的差异造成。(5)整个样本期间,中国17个省市旅游业能源效率呈现下降趋势,背后的因素各有不同,旅游业资本替代效应是湖北省、福建省和浙江省等多数省市旅游业能源效率下降的主要因素,全要素生产率是安徽省、海南省、贵州省和甘肃省旅游业能源效率下降的主要原因。因此,合理利用投入的资源要素对旅游业低能耗发展至关重要,尤其是要发挥好资本对能源的替代效应,高效的资本配置能极大提高旅游能源效率。     

Are denser cities greener? Evidence from China, 2000–2010

Whether a city develops into a more compact one with a higher density or a more sprawling one may affect multiple aspects of the urban environment, including ecosystem health, greenhouse gas emissions, and quality of life. Using panel data gathered from China's cities from 2000 to 2010, we take advantage of the significant variation in the temporal change of density across cities to estimate the relationship between gross urban population density and multiple indicators of urban greenness. Fixed‐effects estimates support the widely held belief that density improves air quality and reduces the per capita carbon footprint. Results also suggest that higher density reduces the growth of road infrastructure and vehicle ownership and promotes walking. While density often translates into proximity and accessibility, higher density does reduce a city's per capita urban park and green space. This study strengthens the urban policy and planning literature with much needed longitudinal evidence. Our overall findings support higher density as opposed to lower density urban development in China.     

东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅰ)——热量指数与玉米产量

利用东北地区典型站点1961-2005年气象资料和东北3省1961-2005年玉米产量资料,计算分析了东北不同地区玉米热量指数的变化趋势以及与产量的关系。结果表明：受气候变暖的影响,辽宁省热量指数出现下降的趋势,而吉林省和黑龙江省的热量指数出现显著升高的趋势,气候变暖对吉林省和黑龙江省玉米生产有有利的影响。热量指数较好地反映了玉米产量与环境温度的相关关系。因此,可通过对玉米热量指数的预测进行农作物低温冷害预测,为农业生产防灾减灾提供决策依据。     

冬小麦旱灾风险评价的指标体系构建及应用——基于2009年北方春旱野外实地考察的认识

2009年2月初,我国北方冬麦区遭受了数十年未遇的严重干旱。基于野外实地考察,判断本次干旱对冬小麦造成的实际影响比气象统计与遥感监测结果要轻,同时因纬度、地貌类型、微地貌和田间管理水平的不同而呈现出明显的区域差异。在此基础上,提出应在已有的旱灾致灾指标（气象干旱）基础上,综合考虑地带性、地貌、水库等孕灾环境指标和田间管理水平等灾害适应指标来构建冬小麦旱灾风险的综合评价指标体系。并以北方冬麦区为例,选取SPI、地貌类型、DEM和水库缓冲区等指标得到的旱灾综合风险等级与实际旱情存在较高的吻合性。研究可为高风险区的冬小麦旱灾风险防范提供理论依据和案例支撑。     

中国雨日变化趋势的分形研究

利用1951-2002年中国752个台站的雨日资料,运用分形理论和R/S分析法,研究并预测了中国五大降水区年雨日的气候变化趋势.研究表明:中国五大降水区未来的年雨日变化趋势与过去50a的变化有着很好的自相似性.为了更深入研究雨日的未来的变化,设计了两项Hurst指数试验,用两项试验结果与年雨日年际变化趋势的对应关系来推断未来的变化趋势及其转折与突变.结果表明:中国五大降水区年雨日有着一致的减少趋势,但其变化呈现显著的地域分异特征.依照五大降水区的气候倾向率,西北区、西南区、青藏高原区、东部北方区、东部南方区未来平均每10a雨日减少分别为4.1d,11.4d,3.7d,6.8d和5.9d,其中西南区年雨日减少最多.期间,中国五大降水区虽有气候变化的转折,但不存在雨日气候变化的突变点.     

Distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in breast milk from North China: Implication of exposure pathways

The breast milk concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs; sum of eight congeners: BDE-28, 47, 99, 100, 153, 154, 183 and 209) were determined (by high resolution gas chromatographic high resolution mass spectrometry) in samples from primiparous women collected in 2006 in Tianjin, China. Dietary and lifestyle habits of the participants were obtained by questionnaires. The median total PBDE concentration (including BDE-28, 47, 99, 100, 153, 154, 183) was 2500 pg g⁻¹ lipid weight, ranging from 1700 to 4500 pg g⁻¹ lipid weight. These levels were in the same range as those from Europe and Japan but much lower than those from North America. The congener profile in China was also different from other countries. The contribution of BDE-28 was around 15%, much higher than any other country, implying that a different Penta-BDE formulation might be used in the Chinese market. The lower ratio of the sum of BDE-47, 99, and 100 to the sum of BDE-153 and 154 suggested that Octa-products were in more demand in China. A significant correlation was found between a woman’s PBDE concentration and the time she used electronic appliances (h/d). This implies that electronics are a potential source of PBDEs to people. Inhalation or ingestion of particulate matter (such as dust) may also be an important exposure pathway. There was no significant correlation between the PBDE concentration and the consumption of meat, fish, and milk. Further research is needed to determine the specific contribution of each exposure route and their health effects.     

Levels and congener profiles of PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs in seafood from China

A nationwide investigation into polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in market seafood was conducted for the first time in this study. Total PCDD/F concentrations in fatty fish ranged from 0.13 to 8.64 pg g⁻¹ wet weight (mean 2.05 pg g⁻¹ wet weight), total PCB concentrations ranged from 38.9 to 3514 pg g⁻¹ wet weight (mean 1133 pg g⁻¹ wet weight), and total PBDE concentrations ranged from 42.8 to 913 pg g⁻¹ wet weight (mean 322 pg g⁻¹ wet weight). Corresponding mean toxicity equivalent (TEQ) values for total PCDD/F and dioxin-like PCB were 0.25 pg g⁻¹ wet weight (WHO 98-TEQ) and 0.32 pg g⁻¹ wet weight (WHO 98-TEQ), respectively. OCDD, PCB-138 and PBDE-47 were the dominant compounds according to their respective congeners. WHO 98-TEQ _{PCDD/PCDF/PCB} for fatty fish and shell fish were 0.60 and 0.070 pg g⁻¹ wet weight, respectively, lower than the standard set by the European Commission. The contamination levels and profiles were compared with those documented in previous publications.     

Biomagnification of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls in a highly contaminated freshwater food web from South China

To evaluate the biomagnification extent of polybrominated diphenyls ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a highly contaminated freshwater food web from South China, trophic magnification factors (TMFs) for 18 PBDE congeners and 53 PCB congeners were calculated. The TMF values ranged 0.26-4.47 for PBDEs and 0.75-5.10 for PCBs. Forty-five of 53 PCBs and BDEs 47, 100 and 154 had TMFs greater than one, suggesting their biomagnification in the present food web. The TMFs for PBDEs were generally smaller than those for PCBs with the same degree of halogenation, indicating a lower biomagnification potential for PBDEs compared to PCBs. For PCBs, it followed a parabolic relationship between TMFs and log K_OW (octanol-water partition coefficient). However, this relationship was not significant for PBDEs, possibly due to the more complex behaviors of PBDEs in the food web (e.g., metabolism), compared to that of PCBs.     

Urbanization in China Based on International Comparison： A Discussion with Two Prevalent Views

Two prevalent views are reviewed on China＇s urbanization firstly. Then, this article highlights the characteristics and pattern of urbanization in the world based on the quadrants map, using data of 118 countries or areas. The results indicate that the process of urbanization in the world excluding the data of China has slowed down gradually. A further exploration examines China＇s urbanization process and economic development over time, which reveals that both urbanization level and the level of economic development belong to the low-grade coordination pattern. The low level of urbanization is closely connected with the low level of economic development. Actually, China＇s urbanization gap appeared during 1985-1995, but it has been eliminating this urbanization gap since 1995 as a result of rapid urbanization growing. The complicated realities revealed in this analysis challenge the existing two prevalent views.