Population Viability Analysis with Species Occurrence Data from Museum Collections

Abstract: The most comprehensive data on many species come from scientific collections. Thus, we developed a method of population viability analysis (PVA) in which this type of occurrence data can be used. In contrast to classical PVA, our approach accounts for the inherent observation error in occurrence data and allows the estimation of the population parameters needed for viability analysis. We tested the sensitivity of the approach to spatial resolution of the data, length of the time series, sampling effort, and detection probability with simulated data and conducted PVAs for common, rare, and threatened species. We compared the results of these PVAs with results of standard method PVAs in which observation error is ignored. Our method provided realistic estimates of population growth terms and quasi‐extinction risk in cases in which the standard method without observation error could not. For low values of any of the sampling variables we tested, precision decreased, and in some cases biased estimates resulted. The results of our PVAs with the example species were consistent with information in the literature on these species. Our approach may facilitate PVA for a wide range of species of conservation concern for which demographic data are lacking but occurrence data are readily available.     

Functional decomposition—A contribution to overcome the parameter space explosion during validation of highly automated driving

Abstract

Objective: Particular testing by functional decomposition of the automated driving function can potentially contribute to reducing the effort of validating highly automated driving functions. In this study, the required size of test suites for scenario-based testing and the potential to reduce it by functional decomposition are quantified for the first time.

Methods: The required size of test suites for scenario-based approval of a so-called Autobahn-Chauffeur (SAE Level 3) is analyzed for an exemplary set of scenarios. Based on studies of data from failure analyses in other domains, the possible range for the required test coverage is narrowed down and suitable discretization steps, as well as ranges for the influence parameters, are assumed. Based on those assumptions, the size of the test suites for testing the complete system is quantified. The effects that lead to a reduction in the parameter space for particular testing of the decomposed driving function are analyzed and the potential to reduce the validation effort is estimated by comparing the resulting test suite sizes for both methods.

Results: The combination of all effects leads to a reduction in the test suites’ size by a factor between 20 and 130, depending on the required test coverage. This means that the size of the required test suite can be reduced by 95–99% by particular testing compared to scenario-based testing of the complete system.

Conclusions: The reduction potential is a valuable contribution to overcome the parameter space explosion during the validation of highly automated driving. However, this study is based on assumptions and only a small set of exemplary scenarios. Thus, the findings have to be validated in further studies.     

国土空间用途管制的改革逻辑及其规划响应路径

在完善生态文明制度体系、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的宏观背景下,系统梳理土地用途管制制度起源、实施特点、成效与不足,重点解析土地用途管制向国土空间用途管制转型的改革逻辑及其对国土空间规划的具体要求,为完善国土空间规划体系提供借鉴。研究结果表明：（1）土地用途管制制度突出强调对耕地的保护,以新增建设用地为主要管控对象,建立了土地用途分类—规划—计划—审批—监管的完整管控链条,在保护耕地、保障粮食安全、倒逼节约集约用地和提高依法依规用地意识等方面取得了较好成效,但仍存在覆盖范围不全、管制刚性过强、生态用地管制乏力等不足。（2）国土空间用途管制以生态文明建设为逻辑起点,通过单一地类保护向空间统筹转型、地类管制向空间管控转型、指标传导为主向指标与分区相结合转型、底线约束向约束与引导并重转型,构建面向全过程、多样化的管制规则体系,完善空间传导机制,进而实现所有国土空间全要素统一管制。（3）面对国土空间用途管制的时代需求,国土空间规划改革应在系统性、整体性的规划管控指标体系、覆盖全域、上下衔接的规划分区体系、底线约束与激励引导相结合的规划实施弹性机制以及“全链条”管理机制等方面做出积极响应,进而实现不同层级国土空间规划和用途管制的统筹协调管控。     

受限空间中CO与水蒸汽阻尼瓦斯爆炸的反应动力学模拟研究

为了探求一氧化碳与水蒸汽参与瓦斯爆炸的化学反应动力学过程的阻尼效应,建立了受限空间中瓦斯爆炸反应的数学模型。数值计算结果表明,结果表明在瓦斯爆炸过程中,瓦斯-空气混合气体含有10%的一氧化碳,虽然会延迟瓦斯爆炸时间,抑制瓦斯爆炸,但是H、O自由基浓度、瓦斯爆炸温度和压力比不加入一氧化碳时升高,同时对CO2、NO的生成起促进作用;当混合气体中含有10%的水蒸汽时,H、O自由基浓度降低,瓦斯爆炸温度和压力也随之降低,致灾性气体CO2、NO的生成得到抑制。虽然一氧化碳对瓦斯爆炸有一定的阻尼效应,但是由于一氧化碳对部分致灾性气体的生成有促进作用,因此,在阻尼瓦斯爆炸方面,水蒸汽的效果要好于一氧化碳。     

不同通风条件下密闭空间CO2泄漏及排散过程模拟研究

为了探究密闭空间内通风对气体泄漏扩散过程的影响,基于FLACS模拟软件,对密闭空间内CO2泄漏及排散过程进行模拟,探讨入风口、出风口相对位置对泄漏及排散过程的影响。研究结果表明:入风口高度与出风口高度越高,越有利于CO2气体排散,应急排散时间更短;入风口位于屋顶时,CO2排散效果最好。     

基于数字地下空间与工程的人防信息系统的设计探讨

以提高人防工程管理质量、效益、信息化为根本目的,采用计算机技术、图形学技术、数据管理技术、数据分析技术、智能技术、人机交互技术、数据交换技术、网络通信技术等,基于数字地下空间与工程,旨在建立高度综合的、统一的、开放的和真三维的人防信息系统。文章着重讨论了系统总体结构、技术结构、信息数据的获取和处理、系统的功能,并通过一工程实例说明数字地下空间与工程在人防信息系统中的应用。人防信息系统对城市人防工程设备的承载力、辐射范围缓冲区、人口疏散隐蔽最佳路径、实时监测等空间分析提供支持;对提高人防工程的管理水平、工作效率、功能发挥以及地下空间的可持续发展也将起到积极的作用,产生巨大的社会和经济效益。     

我国耕地资源数量安全的时空差异分析

耕地资源数量安全是耕地资源安全非常重要的组成部分，它受到资源禀赋、经济发展水平、管理和政策等因素的影响。本文在分析耕地资源数量安全影响因素的基础上，构建其评价指标体系，并对我国耕地资源数量安全的时空差异规律进行了分析，结果表明。自改革开放以来，我国耕地资源数量安全状况呈先增后减的变化趋势；从安全水平的区域分布来看，北部和西部省份的安全水平普遍高于东部和南部省份，同时发现，区域安全水平与经济发展水平呈负相关关系。     

Influence of “Holiday Tourism Circle of Beijing“ on Chengde Tourism Spatial Alteration and Reconstruction

Chengde City, famous for its cultural sightseeing tourism industry, and is located in China‘s “Capital Holiday Tourism Circle“. This location is advantageous, because of the recent boom in China‘s national tourism industry. This industry has gone through several structural and development changes with in the past several years. A result of these restructuring patterns is the great changes concerning competitive and cooperative relations among tourism destinations, which have precipitated the decline of the traditional sightseeing pattern.Northern China‘s “Capital Holiday Tourism Circle“ is one of nine key areas within the Chinese tourism industry under development during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. In the present article the method of “Distance Decline of The Tourist Flow“ was used to define the flow of tourists in the Capital Holiday Tourism Circle and its influence upon Chengde‘s tourism spatial distribution. 3 aspects will be discussed: (1) The transformation from sightseeing to leisure markets makes the change possible in Chengde‘s tourism spatial pattern. (2) The location advantage (adjacent to Beijing and Tianjin) also leads to the change in Chengde tourism spatial pattern. (3) The establishment of freeways also contributes to a great degrees of change.The rapid development of leisure tourism might lead to the change from nucleus model to a diversified one within Chengde‘s tourism. Specifically, Chengde is developing the tourism industry with the central heritage area as the nucleus and the northern forest,pasture,southern mountain, and rivers as its periphery.     

Developing a Regional Open Space Strategy (ROSS) for Central Puget Sound,Washington State,USA

Ecosystem services provided by the landscapes of regions and cities are critical to human and environmental health, quality of life, environmental justice, biodiversity and climate mitigation and adaptation. In the Pacific Northwest region of the US, a team led by the University of Washington Green Futures Lab is working to identify, conserve and enhance regionally-significant landscapes and to evaluate their contributions as ecosystem or “open space” services. This paper outlines the goals and planning methods of the ongoing Regional Open Space Strategy for Central Puget Sound (ROSS) project, and the frameworks and processes being developed to evaluate ecosystem and open space services in order to inform and influence local and regional governance structures and decisions.     

沈阳市城市开放空问系统生态环境质量状况

现代城市开放空间系统的建构已成为城市规划和建设的热点问题，受到普遍关注。文中通过调研、资料收集和监测，研究分析了沈阳市城区开放空间系统的生态环境质量现状和存在的环境问题，提出了改善和提高城市开放空间系统生态功能的建议和措施。