中国南方地区台风降水贡献分析——以2013年台风降水为例

台风是影响中国南方降水的重要天气系统。依据中央气象台台风观测资料和国家级气象观测站地面降水资料,将泰森多边形计算方法和ArcGis技术相结合,分析了2013年登陆或严重影响中国的台风降水特征,定量评价了其对中国南方地区降水的贡献,以及降水贡献在时空两方面的演变特点。研究结果表明：（1）2013年南方地区台风降水贡献为16.9％,占常年（1981—2010年）淡水（降雨）资源的17.2％。（2）空间分布上,自西向东,从北至南,台风降水贡献增大,东南沿海最大。（3）月度降水贡献呈双峰型,6—8月台风降水贡献逐渐增强,8月达8.3％;9月台风降水贡献陡降,10—11月继续增强,11月为3.2％。通过台风降水贡献的研究,对于更好利用台风降水和科学预防台风灾害具有重要意义。     

大型原油储罐火灾多米诺效应概率计算模型及应用

随着油品储罐区规模的不断扩大,近年来多储罐火灾事故呈上升趋势。现有的储罐防火间距是在以往事故经验的基础上设定的,通过罐组内的火灾多米诺效应概率计算,可从风险的角度为罐组内储罐防火间距的设定提供理论依据。通过综合考虑火灾环境下受辐射储罐失效时间和着火储罐火灾得到控制时间,确定了罐组内火灾多米诺效应的判定原则,并在火灾得到控制时间模型和储罐失效时间模型的基础上建立了火灾多米诺效应概率计算模型。以2万立外浮顶原油储罐为例进行模拟计算,得出在现行标准给出的防火间距下,发生罐组火灾多米诺效应的概率为3.94×10-8/a-1,属于可接受风险,为罐组内储罐的合理布局提供了理论依据。     

深井受限空间高温环境影响模拟试验研究

为探索研究矿井高温热害对人体生理健康和工作效率的影响,分析了矿井高温热害的来源和对人体的危害。根据人体生理反应特征选取人体响应综合指标,基于深井受限空间高温环境模拟试验装备,模拟深井受限空间高温环境,开展了矿井高温对人体生理健康及工作效率影响危害的物理模拟试验。利用高温模拟试验结果数据构建了多元线性回归预测模型,对人体响应指标与温度之间的关系进行了准确的定量分析。试验结果表明,温度对血压、心率、呼吸率、疲劳度、注意力和记忆力的影响较大,而对体温、反应时间的影响则较小,并确定了相关的影响程度的预测模型。试验结果为研究深井受限空间高温作业危害和制定相关的职业健康标准提供了科研根据。     

Optimization Research of Urban Space Configuration Based on Space Syntax

Abstract

In this paper, a new method based on the space syntax is presented to optimize the urban space configuration. Space syntax theory is used to detect systematically whether one urban space configuration is optimal or not from four aspects including traffic space, cognition space, land use space and culture space. After introducing the computational and cognitive aspects of space syntax for the research of urban space, a framework of urban space optimization based on space syntax is proposed, then the integration with GIS and the extension to third dimension are discussed. Finally, a case study for Kanmen town of Zhejiang province of P.R.China is illustrated by using Axwoman tool.     

Eliding Extraction,Embracing Novelty: The Spatio-Temporal Configuration of Natural History

Natural history museums present fertile ground for considering material configurations of “nature” and “history.” This essay analyzes the Natural History Museum of Utah at Rio Tinto Center (NHMU) to explore how spatio-temporal configurations of nature and history may paradoxically elide the deep time of natural history. Primarily considering its naming and its spatial placement rather than the impressive collections it houses, I identify spatio-temporal distortions related to three elements of the NHMU: its naming after a multinational mining company, its architectural attempt to represent iconic landforms, and its imposition on a heretofore-undeveloped parcel of land. Taking these distortions in sum, I argue that the museum, which is meant by its architects to be in harmony with the land, elides rather than harmonizes with the land that produced its collections by replacing ancientness with novelty and by conjoining extraction and education. This elision, performed by a building purported to embody the full depth of time, may flatten the deep time of the geologic past, thereby abetting the concealment of the ever-expanding extraction.     

县级单元国土空间线控机制研究?——以涞水县为例

2019年10月,中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅联合印发《关于在国土空间规划中统筹划定落实三条控制线的指导意见》后,线控管理模式将取代先前以量控为主的粗放型管理模式。本文以涞水县为例,通过分析涞水县生态保护红线、永久基本农田控制线、城镇开发边界三条控制线（以下简称“三线”）划定中的现实问题,剖析我国当前“三线”划定和实施线控的困境,从探索“三线”划定方法出发建立线控机制,包括“三线”优序管理、线数统管、两级分管和政策保障等内容;通过典型试点、用途管制与用态管治统筹推进线控实践;提出遗留问题处理、永久基本农田控制线和生态保护红线立法、顶层设计等当前主要任务。     

Achieving air pollutant emission reduction targets with minimum abatement costs: An enterprise-level allocation method with constraints of fairness and feasibility

• Quantification of efficiency and fairness of abatement allocation are optimized. • Allocation results are refined to the different abatement measures of enterprises. • Optimized allocation results reduce abatement costs and tap the abatement space. • Abatement suggestions are given to enterprises with different abatement quotas. For achieving air pollutant emission reduction targets, total pollutant amount control is being continuously promoted in China. However, the traditional pattern of pollutant emission reduction allocation regardless of economic cost often results in unreasonable emission reduction pathways, and industrial enterprises as the main implementers have to pay excessively high costs. Therefore, this study adopted economic efficiency as its main consideration, used specific emission reduction measures (ERMs) of industrial enterprises as minimum allocation units, and constructed an enterprise-level pollutant emission reduction allocation (EPERA) model with minimization of the total abatement cost (TAC) as the objective function, and fairness and feasibility as constraints for emission reduction allocation. Taking City M in China as an example, the EPERA model was used to construct a Pareto optimal frontier and obtain the optimal trade-off result. Results showed that under basic and strict emission reduction regulations, the TAC of the optimal trade-off point was reduced by 46.40% and 45.77%, respectively, in comparison with that achieved when only considering fairness, and the Gini coefficient was 0.26 and 0.31, respectively. The abatement target was attained with controllable cost and relatively fair and reasonable allocation. In addition, enterprises allocated different emission reduction quotas under different ERMs had specific characteristics that required targeted optimization of technology and equipment to enable them to achieve optimal emission reduction effects for the same abatement cost.     

城市生态空间PM2.5削减效益研究——以北京市为例

以生态系统服务的空间依赖性为理论基础,利用2000年与2015年北京市土地利用数据以及PM_2.5年均浓度数据,以30m*30m的土地利用栅格为研究单元,通过建立多元线性回归模型,发现其他条件相同的情况下,生态用地上的PM_2.5浓度比非生态用地上低32.29%,进而探究了生态空间的PM_2.5削减效益及其空间依赖性.结果表明,2000年与2015年,北京市生态空间削减全市范围内PM_2.5浓度4.64和9.03μg/m³,带来的以非意外总死亡健康终点记的人群健康经济效益分别达7954~15896万元与21980~43927万元;生态空间的PM_2.5削减效益存在着空间溢出作用,且不同土地利用类型对其响应方式不同;结构和规模会影响生态空间的效益发挥,线状生态空间在影响范围、污染物削减效果以及人群健康效益方面均优于面状生态空间,且其比较优势随着规模的扩大愈发凸显.建议城市生态空间建设中合理利用其空间特性以提高生态效益与资源利用效率,在城市中心地区增建小型、点状或线状的生态空间,从而在土地资源极度稀缺的情况下最大化其空气质量改善效益.     

论城市居住区绿地的景观生态规划

本文综述了城市居住区绿地规划现状及趋势,指出景观生态规划的内涵及其意义,并进一步指出城市居住区绿地系统的景观生态规划的特征及原则。为了创造良好的环境效益,提高居民生活质量,本文运用景观生态规划的原理,遵循城市居住区景观体系的规划原则,从生态设计和景观设计的角度来探讨城市居住区绿地景观生态规划设计的新思路,并提出了较为合理可行的建议。     

空间环境对舰船无线电定位的影响分析

针对日地空间环境的特点,分析了空间环境对无线电定位的研究现状.针对空间环境对无线电定位系统的影响方式不同,以GPS和罗兰C为例对其影响进行了分析.通过分析空间环境对GPS和罗兰C定位的影响,指出了提高定位精度的环境因素,为进一步提高无线电定位精度提供了依据.