多元信息综合的市县国土空间规划空间功能识别方法

空间功能识别是确定国土空间规划空间开发保护格局的关键环节,理论和实践意义重大。基于土地利用和地表覆盖现状、精细化DEM、地形单元等基础地理信息,水、生态、环境、灾害等专题数据,社会统计数据等多元信息,利用空间分析、多元统计、计量模型、基于规则的分类模型等技术方法,从多元信息综合集成和自动分类识别的角度,研究构建了一套市县国土空间规划空间主导功能识别的关键技术与方法,并对榆林市域进行空间功能分区。研究表明：本文方法有效将地理实体单元、功能评价指标综合于统一的地域单元,保证了空间功能分类识别的准确性;通过自动分类算法建模,实现空间功能识别的自动化,提高了国土空间规划的客观性和工作效率。     

Study of lignocellulosic biomass ignition properties estimation from thermogravimetric analysis

In the last decade, the use of renewable resources has increased significantly in order to reduce the energetic dependence on fossil fuels, as they have an important contribution to the global warning and greenhouse gasses effect. Because of that, research on biofuels has been increased in the last years as its characteristics of use match those of the conventional fuel's: solid biomass can be used instead of coals, and biodiesel could replace diesel. Research on solid biomass ignition properties has been considerably developed because of the amount of industrial accidents related to the treatment and use of solid biomass (self-ignition, dust explosions, etc.). On the other hand, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) is becoming and important characterization technique as it can be used to determine a wide spectrum of properties, such as kinetics, composition, proximate analysis, etc. This research aims to combine thermal analysis and ignition properties, by using the TGA to obtain the elemental composition of lignocellulosic biomass and compare those results to Minimum Ignition Energy (MIE) values test output, so a relation between composition and MIE can be found.To achieve this aim, biomass samples from different origins have been used: oil palm wastes (empty fruit bunches, mesocarp fiber and palm kernel shell), agricultural wastes (straw chops) and forestry wastes (wood chips and wood powder). Also, raw materials and torrefied biomass were compared. The hemicellulose/cellulose ratio was calculated and compared to different flammability properties, finding out that the greater the ratio and the lower the onset temperature (temperature at which the pyrolysis reaction accelerates), the lower was the minimum ignition energy. From this basis it was possible to define “tendency areas” that grouped the samples whose MIE values were similar. Three tendency areas were found: high minimum ignition energy, medium minimum ignition energy, and low ignition energy.     

Molecular composition of recycled organic wastes,as determined by solid-state 13C NMR and elemental analyses

Using solid state ¹³C NMR data and elemental composition in a molecular mixing model, we estimated the molecular components of the organic matter in 16 recycled organic (RO) wastes representative of the major materials generated in the Sydney basin area. Close correspondence was found between the measured NMR signal intensities and those predicted by the model for all RO wastes except for poultry manure char. Molecular nature of the organic matter differed widely between the RO wastes. As a proportion of organic C, carbohydrate C ranged from 0.07 to 0.63, protein C from <0.01 to 0.66, lignin C from <0.01 to 0.31, aliphatic C from 0.09 to 0.73, carbonyl C from 0.02 to 0.23, and char C from 0 to 0.45. This method is considered preferable to techniques involving imprecise extraction methods for RO wastes. Molecular composition data has great potential as a predictor of RO waste soil carbon and nutrient outcomes.     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

地下工程建筑企业事故统计分析

事故统计分析是企业安全生产管理中的重要部分.讨论了建筑企业生产安全事故统计分析中遇到的事故分类方法,并对事故统计指标作了分析.以广州市某地下工程有限公司2003-2007年间的原始数据资料为例,对企业事故进行了统计分析,最后提出了改进安全管理的几点意见.     

Water saving effect on integrated water resource management

This study proposes an improved integrated water resource management (IWRM), in which water conservation was analyzed for the entire water use process. A multi-objective optimization method was applied to optimize the IWRM, which investigated the reduction of freshwater consumption and the total water supply cost. Customer's preference for saving water and an end use analysis (EUA) was applied in the water conservation analysis. Taking Tianjin as the study area, a reduction in customer's economic pressure (EP) was utilized to evaluate the degree of the customer's preference for saving water. The results revealed that agriculture had a greater preference for saving water than other sectors, where as the public had the weakest motivation for saving water. Improving the transportation method could contribute 62.1% of the total water savings in the agriculture sector. The optimization of the IWRM demonstrated that the local freshwater savings would be 21.5%, and the total cost for water supplies would decrease by 13%. However, a government subsidy of 87.5 million Yuan would be needed. Additionally, by analyzing the change in the amount of water savings affected by water price, the appropriate water price increase range was suggested to be 1.5–1.7 times the original price.     

基于神经网络的喀斯特石漠化预警分析模型研究——以广西都安为例

阐述了人工神经网络的基本工作原理,分析BP算法在神经网络中的应用,并具体介绍了BP算法过程。在此基础上,以都安石漠化预警分析为例,提出了基于神经网络的石漠化预警模型的结构。人工神经网络模型实现了石漠化预警分析,确定石漠化危险性指数,并把分析的结果以专题图的形式来表现,从而验证石漠化预警分析模型的可靠性和可行性。     

基于DMSP/OLS数据的江苏省城镇人口空间分异研究

人口空间分异研究是区域协调发展的基础,便捷准确地获取城镇人口全局和局域的空间信息,对于合理制定区域人口、经济和社会发展政策具有重要意义。在DMSP/OLS(夜间灯光)数据和人口数据之间的定量关联基础上,模拟出格网尺度上江苏省2012年人口密度,采用人口集中指数、空间变差函数识别人口分布的空间格局并探讨区别于行政单元尺度的人口格局形成机理。区域层面,江苏省人口空间分异呈现苏北地区"低密度点状"分布,苏南、苏中为"高密度面状"分布并存格局。城镇层面,江苏省人口空间分布结构具有4种类型,H-H型地区人口各向差异性最强,网格单元内随机变异最小;H-L型人口各向差异性最小,网格单元内随机变异较大;L-L型人口轴向均质化特征明显,网格单元随机变异较小;L-H型空间各向差异性较小,网格单元的随机变异最大。结果表明,基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据反演而得到的人口格网模型具有巨大潜力,结合变差函数进行拟合分析可定量地刻画城镇内部人口分布的空间异质性特征。