采用因素分解模型研究京津冀地区用水变化的驱动效应

京津冀地区水资源供需矛盾突出,迫切需要分析其用水量变化与社会经济发展之间的内在联系. 在分析用水总量变化时空特征的基础上,采用因素分解模型研究了2003—2013年京津冀地区产业用水量变化的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应. 结果表明:京津冀地区产业用水量10年间下降了8.84%,是京津冀地区实现经济增长和水资源利用脱钩的主要影响因素;规模效应10年间累计增加了267.95×108 m3,是导致产业用水量增长的唯一驱动因素;结构效应和技术效应都倾向于减少产业用水量,分别累计减少124.17×108和164.11×108 m3;技术效应是北京产业用水量减少的主要原因,10年间累计减少了79.14%的产业用水量;而天津的结构效应要强于技术效应,10年间分别累计减少81.17%和73.71%的产业用水量;河北的结构效应和技术效应10年间分别累计减少51.37%和68.33%的产业用水量,相比京津仍有较大潜力. 研究显示,调整产业结构、推广节水技术是缓解京津冀水资源短缺压力的有效途径,未来河北在承接产业转移的同时,应紧密结合产业结构的优化和经济增长方式的转变.      

中国省域能源消费碳排放时空异质性的EOF和GWR分析

利用自然正交函数(EOF)揭示中国各省份能源消费碳排放量变动的时空特征,借助地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析了碳排放量驱动因素的空间分布状况.研究结果表明:中国省域能源消费碳排放量整体处于增长状态,但其增长速度有减缓趋势;EOF第一模态结果显示,碳排放量以四川省为中心向南北方向扩散,低值区集中分布在西北地区和珠三角地区;第二模态结果显示,碳排放量增长速度表现出西南地区和东南沿海地区较快,而中部省份碳排放量增长速度较慢的态势.碳排放量影响因素的重要程度由大到小依次为:总人口变化量、人均GDP变化量、城镇化率变化量、二产比重变化量、贸易开放程度变化量和能源消耗强度变化量,其中,总人口变化量的影响程度最为剧烈,每当总人口变化1%时,碳排放量相应地会变化0.5358%.     

中国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局及影响因素分析

随着经济社会的发展与人民生活水平的提高,生活用能强度逐年增大,城市居民生活能源碳排放日益成为碳排放的新增长点.本文采用Theil指数、空间自相关分析了我国城市居民生活能源碳排放的时空格局演变特征,并利用STIRPAT模型分析了影响城市居民生活能源碳排放的主要因素.结果表明:12001—2012年我国城市居民生活能源碳排放总量及人均生活能源碳排放量均呈增长趋势,其年增长率分别为9.69%、3.29%;2八大经济区域间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的差异是构成我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放总体差异的主要原因,其对总差异的贡献率达到了57.90%;3我国城市居民人均生活能源碳排放具有显著的空间正相关性,2001—2012年间城市居民人均生活能源碳排放的"冷点"区变化较为稳定,主要分布在东部和南部经济区,而"热点"区主要分布在西北、东北和黄河中游经济区;4城市人口规模、城市居民可支配收入、城市居民生活消费支出、城市居民年龄结构均对城市居民生活能源碳排放量具有加剧作用,而城市居民能源消费结构具有减缓作用,且北方城市居民生活能源碳排放量明显高于南方;5现有样本数据支持环境Kuznets曲线假说,即随着经济的发展,城市居民生活能源碳排放量存在转折点.     

雅鲁藏布江径流变化的影响因素分析研究

雅鲁藏布江流域作为西藏最重要的经济区,对全球气候变化极其敏感和脆弱.文章选择雅鲁藏布江流域作为研究区,通过对气候因素、径流变化的时空规律的分析,探讨了降水、气温等气候因子对径流的影响.得出:流域1960年-2009年年平均气温具有显著的上升趋势,升温趋势随海拔升高而增大的特点,流域1960年-2009年流域年降水呈上升的趋势,但趋势不显著,流域降水变化呈现复杂性.气温、降水的变化是影响雅鲁藏布江天然径流变化最直接的影响因素.     

An empirical study of spatial-temporal growth patterns of a voluntary residential green infrastructure program

Voluntary residential green infrastructure (GI) stormwater management retrofit programs can help cities comply with environmental regulations while also improving quality of life. Previous research has identified influential factors in residents’ willingness to adopt GI, but few have simultaneously studied the spatial and temporal dynamics of GI. I use a six-year record of participation in a voluntary residential GI program in Washington DC to explore how neighborhood characteristics and social influence affect GI adoption over time. Statistical regression and Monte Carlo permutation resampling techniques are used to explain the spatial-temporal patterns of growth of the program. I demonstrate empirical evidence that participation location is increasingly determined by the locations of previous participants. These findings suggest that past participants will increasingly influence spatial clustering of GI in the city.     

近30年青海三江源西部干旱区草地退化特征的遥感分析

使用自20世纪70年代末~2004年的3期遥感图像(70sMSS、90sTM和2004年TM/ETM),研究了近30年青海三江源西部干旱区草地退化的格局与过程,结果表明:整个研究时段内,草地退化发生面积占总草地面积的10%左右,且以草地覆盖度轻度下降为主,其退化面积占总草地退化面积的80%以上,其次是轻度沙化/盐化,相应比重占10%以上。草地退化面积呈东南向西北减少趋势,退化程度呈东南向西北降低格局,而退化类型也由复合型向单一型过渡。整个时段内,草地退化面积呈增加趋势,尤其是沙化面积增加较快。不同海拔、坡度和坡向间草地退化面积差异显著。海拔4 800~5 100m范围内为草地退化发生的主要分布区,4 500~4 800m和5 100m以上草地退化基本相当。退化率较高的坡度级别介于2~8°之间,类似于草地面积随坡度变化的基本趋势。不同坡向呈阴坡、半阴半阳坡高于阳坡的态势。脆弱的基底、极端气候年际间周期波动等限制性因子控制着草地退化的基本格局,人为扰动则决定草地退化的强度和速度。总体看来,研究区地带性自然条件决定的荒漠化草地已占据主导地位,人类活动相对较弱,草地退化程度增加趋势不明显,新的草地退化现象不十分突出。     

Differences in sensory ecology contribute to resource partitioning in the bats Myotis bechsteinii and Myotis nattereri (Chiroptera: Vespertilionidae)

Coexisting animal species frequently differ in resource use in at least one niche dimension and thus avoid competition. While a range of morphological differences that lead to differentiation in animals' mechanical access to food have been identified, the role of sensory differences in within-guild niche differentiation has received less attention. We tested the hypothesis that differences in sensory access to prey contribute to resource partitioning between potentially competing species using two sympatric, similar-sized, congeneric bat species as a model system. Nursery colonies of Natterer's bat (Myotis nattereri) and Bechstein's bat (Myotis bechsteinii) roost in bat boxes in the same orchard and forage in forests and orchards nearby. In observations and behavioural experiments with freshly captured M. bechsteinii, we showed that individuals are able to hunt using prey-generated sound alone. In contrast, M. nattereri rarely uses prey-generated sound, but instead is able to find prey by echolocation very close to vegetation. In accordance with these behavioural data, we showed that M. bechsteinii has significantly larger ears than M. nattereri, providing it with superior detection and localization abilities for relatively low-frequency prey rustling sounds. We hypothesized that these differences in sensory ecology of the two syntopic, congeneric species would contribute to resource partitioning, so that M. bechsteinii would find more noisy prey taxa, possibly hidden in vegetation, by listening for prey sounds, while M. nattereri would have better access to still prey using echolocation or associative learning. Analysis of faecal samples collected on the same nights from bat boxes occupied by each species corroborated this prediction. The diets of the two species differed significantly, reflecting their different prey perception techniques and thereby supporting the hypothesis that differences in sensory ecology contribute to niche differentiation. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available for this article at and accessible for authorised users. B.M. Siemers and S.M. Swift contributed equally to this work.     

利用RAPD标记分析卧龙自然保护区不同海拔沙棘种群的遗传变异

从1800m到3400m五个海拔连续取样,用RAPD分子标记研究了卧龙自然保护区中国沙棘种群的遗传结构和遗传变异.用11条寡核苷酸引物,扩增得到151个重复性好的位点,其中143个多态位点,多态率达94.7%.在5个沙棘种群中,总遗传多样性值(HT)为0.289,B种群内的遗传多样性值为0.315,这完全符合沙棘这种多年生、远交的木本植物高遗传变异的特性.5个种群内遗传多样性随海拔升高呈低—高—低变异趋势,在2200m海拔处的B种群遗传多样性达最大值0.315,3400m海拔处的E种群则表现最小,仅0.098.5个种群间的遗传分化值GST=0.406,也即是说有40.6%的遗传变异存在于种群间,59.4%存在种群内.1800m海拔处的A种群与其他种群的明显分离是造成种群间遗传分化大的原因.UPGMA聚类图和PCoA散点图分别进一步确证了5个种群间关系和所有个体间的关系.最后,经过Mantel检测,遗传距离与海拔表现了明显的相关性(r=0.646,P=0.011).     

Quality and Congestion in Environmental Goods: The Road to the Wangapeka

An increasing complaint heard among New Zealand residents is that their enjoyment of local environmental resources is being diminished by increased congestion from foreign visitors. This paper considers a model of vertical differentiation in which foreign high-value and domestic low-value consumers incur congestion costs in using a common resource. We demonstrate that reducing quality in the face of increased foreign demand is optimal absent discriminatory prices (but not otherwise). We also consider the provision of multiple environmental goods and demonstrate that providing differential qualities may be optimal even if domestic consumers do not use the high-quality resources at all.     

黄土丘陵区降雨、径流、土壤水分的时空分布与利用对策

基于黄土丘陵区的延安燕沟多年监测资料，通过对燕沟流域的降雨、径流、及其不同土地利用方式下土壤水分等时空分布特征分析，明确了黄土丘陵区降雨的时间、空间分布具有显著差异性。降雨量在6～9月相对集中，年际、月际变异大；同时次降雨量、月降雨量均存在显著空间异质性，如降雨量沿燕沟沟道变化及坡向分异。径流特征是降雨及其下垫面特征的综合反映，3月左右由于气温上升，河道解冻，径流量出现小高峰，雨季后2个月出现最大高峰水量。对径流的利用则由于供水／需水时间错位，利用主要集中在枯水季节（4-6月），土壤水资源由于地形、降雨、植被覆盖等的差异性，特别是植被差异性利用，则存在时空异质性。土壤水分在雨季后1-2月在0～150cm形成高值期，150cm以下的土壤恢复缓慢。植被差异利用形成了土壤水分剖面不同：梯田〉草地〉拧条林〉拧条＋五角枫林〉沙棘林〉刺槐林。根据对水资源系统分析，提出了流域水资源开发利用的对策：农作物适雨种植制度；植被空间合理布局；降雨、土壤水、径流三水联合御旱，提高水资源利用效率。