太湖流域水灾演变与环境变迁的相关分析

新石器时期以来,太湖地区的水灾发生机制和表现形式严格受控于海、地、气系统的能量均衡和转换过程,具有明显的阶段性特征,遵循由海洋优势性向海面控制基准下陆源洪水的演变过程.愈接近现代,成灾和干扰因素愈趋复杂,逐渐呈现出水灾与环境相互反馈使水灾加深(岗身体系形成并完善,太湖形成并扩张以来),以及人类活动、水灾与环境三者间相互反馈使水灾频度加大等趋势(尤其自南宋以来).提出了相对高海面的水灾控制基面效应和太湖水灾扩张效应等观点.     

四川色达县切都柯沟“7.8”泥石流灾害特征及危险性分析

2004年7月8日四川色达县歌乐沱乡切都柯沟发生了中等规模泥石流,最大流速10.4m/s,洪峰流量156m3/s,冲出方量约7×104m3,造成了一定的财产损失。泥石流稠度大,冲击力强,具有明显的直进性特征,为粘性泥石流。切都柯沟泥石流发育阶段为壮年(偏幼)期。切都柯沟为中度危险的泥石流沟,该沟一次泥石流最大堆积危险范围39902m2,最大堆积长度284m,最大堆积厚度4.32m。提出了相应的防治措施:一是在滑坡崩塌处进行加固,采取沟岸护坡等措施;二是在沟谷上游修建谷坊、拦挡坝,以降低流速,削减泥石流能量和规模。     

自然资源系统的演化及其动力机制

在概述了自然资源和自然资源系统含义的基础上，分析了自然资源系统在人类发展的不同阶段（采集狩猎社会、原始农业社会、传统农业社会、工业社会、后工业社会、知识经济社会）的演化过程及其主要特征，并从自然界和人类活动两个方面探讨了自然资源系统演化的动力机制。     

QUANTIFICATION OF INCISED CHANNEL EVOLUTION AND EQUILIBRIUM1

ABSTRACT: Incised channels are caused by an imbalance between sediment transport capacity and sediment supply that alters channel morphology through bed and bank erosion. Consistent sequential changes in incised channel morphology may be quantified and used to develop relationships describing quasi‐equilibrium conditions in these channels. We analyzed the hydraulic characteristics of streams in the Yazoo River Basin, Mississippi in various stages of incised channel evolution. The hydraulic characteristics of incising channels were observed to follow the sequence predicted by previous conceptual models of incised channel response. Multiple regression models of stable slopes in quasi‐equilibrium channels that have completed a full evolutionary sequence were developed. These models compare favorably with analytical solutions based on the extremal hypothesis of minimum stream power and empirical relationships from other regions. Appropriate application of these empirical relationships may be useful in preliminary design of stream rehabilitation strategies.     

CULTURAL EVOLUTION AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: This article reports the findings of a case study of a major California water management district's effort to change its management approach. The following key findings and factors have influenced the Salinas basin management plan (BMP) and its progress: (1) the Salinas Valley is an economy dominated by highly sophisticated irrigated agriculture dependent on ground water; (2) a persistent pattern of agricultural overdraft of ground water has hurt growers primarily in the north end of the valley via induced saline intrusion of irrigation wells; (3) a complex set of water institutions, property and water rights, and land lease practices offer little incentive for good stewardship of land and water; and (4) the BMP approach initially may have intensified tension among growers and between growers and other water user groups. Water rules and practices in the Salinas Valley and Monterey County have evolved through a long historical process of adaptations. Therefore, any significant changes in local water use practices need to be understood in terms of cultural change, that is, changes in deeply held values, beliefs, and assumptions. We believe the BMP and the MCWRA are succeeding when evaluated from this evolutionary perspective. The fact that both still exist relatively intact testifies that they are working, albeit slowly.     

中国海洋生态保护制度的演进逻辑、互补需求及改革路径

海洋生态问题本质上是制度问题。中国海洋生态保护制度经历了从无到有、从少到多的发展过程,但多种复杂制度之间是否能够形成治理合力,制度缺失、制度无效和制度冲突等问题是否存在,尚有待进一步解答。为此,文章在梳理中国海洋生态保护制度演进逻辑的基础上,基于制度互补视角挖掘现有制度的互补空间,探究查缺补漏、规范修正和协调统筹的制度改革路径,以期推动海洋生态保护制度“从多到优”的有效过渡。中国海洋生态保护制度的演进可分为初步建立、稳步推进和改革转型三个阶段,呈现出从陆海分割到陆海一体化治理、从政府单一主体监管到多元主体协同治理、从标准规范到法律保障的趋势特征。制度需求引致与制度供给滞后、制度成本制约与制度收益驱动之间的联动关系是推动海洋生态保护制度演进的内在动因。海洋生态保护是一项跨区域、跨部门的复杂系统性工程,不同生态保护制度之间的联动耦合至关重要。立足制度互补理论视角,中国海洋生态保护制度在保护主体、保护手段和保护过程三个层面均存在较大的互补需求,其中保护主体单一的问题主要因制度缺失导致,保护手段的低效主要受到制度适应性不足的影响,而保护过程的割裂主要反映了制度不协调、不匹配的矛盾。基于此,未来中国海洋生态保护制度的补充应围绕政府职责梳理和多元主体参与建设,制度的修正重点在于进一步完善市场激励、信息公开等非政府机制,制度的协调则要实现立足事前、事中和事后全过程,推动政策工具的有效衔接配合。     

Land institution of China: overall framework,structural evolution,and regulation intensity

China’s land institution can be defined broadly or narrowly. By examining the broad definition of the land institution, we found that there were prerequisite, complementary, and substitutional relationships among the various systems. These relationships were verified through discussion of the structural evolution of each system. Based on these relationships, three methods for quantification were used to measure the regulation intensity and intra-provincial differences in each system among 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China in 2014. The statistics analysis shows that provinces used to pursue outstanding performances in land institution but few provinces could outperform the other provinces in all types of systems. The statistics results also indicate that the provinces which executed land institution earlier often hold significant advantages in institutional innovations but it is still not clear whether they can maintain the advantages. This study recommends that the Chinese government should improve the overall framework of regional land institution based on land systems’ relationships and evolutionary patterns. Furthermore, the government should optimize the spatial distribution of regional land institution based on the intra-provincial differences in land-regulation intensity.     

滆湖藻密度的时空分布及驱动因子分析

在2年内分季度调查滆湖浮游植物种群和水环境因子,分析藻密度的空间分布状况以及按时间序列的藻密度变化和浮游植物优势种群变化,分别采用"多元线性逐步回归法"和"偏相关系数法"进行藻密度驱动因子识别。结果表明,滆湖藻密度空间分布趋势为由北向南逐渐升高,年际间季节差异极显著。浮游植物的演替规律为冬、春季节以绿藻和硅藻为主,夏、秋季节蓝藻占绝对优势。通过比较2种统计方法的计算结果,确定全湖及中、南部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和高锰酸盐指数,北部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和硝酸盐氮,所有驱动因子对滆湖藻密度的影响均为正效应。在富营养化严重的滆湖,N,P营养盐已经不再是浮游植物生长的主要驱动因子,从统计方法的角度解释了部分环境因子没有入选为驱动因子的原因,并推断了其他可能的驱动因子。     

Study on the damage statistical strength criterion of backfill with crack under thermo-mechanical coupling

ABSTRACT

Aiming at backfill with crack under the thermo-mechanical (TM) coupling, the concepts of crack macro-damage, loading meso-damage, thermal meso-damage, and total damage of backfill were proposed. Based on the statistical damage theory, considering the coupling effects of temperature, load and initial crack, a damage evolution model of backfill with crack under TM coupling effects was established. Based on this, the strength criterion of backfill with crack considering the effects of thermal and mechanical coupling was constructed by multivariate function full differential method. The research shows that: (1) The theoretical curves of damage evolution model and strength criterion of backfill with crack under TM coupling are in good agreement with the test curves, which verifies the rationality of the model. (2) The initial thermal damage decreases first and then increases with increasing temperature, reaches a minimum value at 40°C, and generally shows a “V” -shaped distribution law. The coupling effect of temperature and crack aggravates the total damage of the backfill. (3) The strength criterion can reflect the relationship between the stress and strain of each limit state and the parameters of backfill with crack under different temperature conditions and can provide a certain reference for the evaluation of the stability of backfill with geological defects such as joints and crack in deep high temperature mines.     

Effect of flame propagation regime on pressure evolution of nano and micron PMMA dust explosions

Experiments using an open space dust explosion apparatus and a standard 20 L explosion apparatus on nano and micron polymethyl methacrylate dust explosions were conducted to reveal the differences in flame and pressure evolutions. Then the effect of combustion and flame propagation regimes on the explosion overpressure characteristics was discussed. The results showed that the flame propagation behavior, flame temperature distribution and ion current distribution all demonstrated the different flame structures for nano and micron dust explosions. The combustion and flame propagation of 100 nm and 30 μm PMMA dust clouds were mainly controlled by the heat transfer efficiency between the particles and external heat sources. Compared with the cluster diffusion dominant combustion of 30 μm dust flame, the premixed-gas dominant combustion of 100 nm dust flame determined a quicker pyrolysis and combustion reaction rate, a faster flame propagation velocity, a stronger combustion reaction intensity, a quicker heat release rate and a higher amount of released reaction heat, which resulted in an earlier pressure rise, a larger maximum overpressure and a higher explosion hazard class. The complex combustion and propagation regime of agglomerated particles strongly influenced the nano flame propagation and explosion pressure evolution characteristics, and limited the maximum overpressure.