On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic

To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of “window of opportunity” (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.     

浙江省人口分布的空间格局及其时空演变

改革开放以来,随着经济社会的快速发展,浙江省各地区人口分布发生了明显的变化。文章运用空间自相关、不均衡系数、人口重心和偏移增长法,对浙江省69个县级行政单元人口分布的空间格局及其在1985-2007年间的时空演变特征进行了深入分析,并得出以下几点结论:①浙江省人口密度分布具有"点—带—区"结构特征,即以经济发展水平高的地区为高值点,通过杭甬高速和甬台温高速将各高值点连接成带,其他地区则形成人口密度低值区;②浙江省人口分布存在一定的空间关联性,在浙东北环杭州湾地区和浙东南沿海地区呈现高高集聚,在浙中和西南内陆地区呈现低低集聚;③浙江省人口呈不均衡分布状态,并且人口不均衡系数不断增大;④浙江省人口偏移增长在三大区域之间具有明显差异,浙东南沿海地区人口总偏移量为正,浙东北环杭州湾地区基本稳定、浙中和西南内陆地区为负,人口重心逐渐向东南沿海偏移。     

Metals in biomass

Background, Aim and Scope

Metal ions generally share the ability/tendency of interacting with biological material by forming complexes, except possibly for the heavy alkali metals K, Rb and Cs. This is unrelated to the metals being either essential for sustaining life and its reproduction, apparently insignificant for biology, although perhaps undergoing bioconcentration or even being outright toxic, even at low admission levels. Yet, those different kinds of metal-biomass interactions should in some way depend on properties describing coordination chemistries of these very metals. Nevertheless, both ubiquitously essential metals and others sometimes used in biology should share these properties in numeric terms, since it can be anticipated that they will be distinguished from nonessential and/or toxic ones. These features noted above include bioconcentration, the involvement of metal ions such as Zn, Mg, Cu, Fe, etc. in biocatalysis as crucial components of metalloenzymes and the introduction of a certain set of essential metals common to (almost) all living beings (K, Mg, Mo, Mn, Fe, Cu and Zn), which occurred probably very early in biological evolution by ‘natural selection of the chemical elements’ (more exactly speaking, of the metallomes).

Materials and Methods

The approach is semiempirical and consists of three consecutive steps: 1) derivation of a regression equation which links complex stability data of different complexes containing the same metal ion to electrochemical data pertinent to the (replaced) ligands, thus describing properties of metal ions in complexes, 2) a graphical representation of the properties-two typical numbers c and x for each metal ion-in some map across the c/x-space, which additionally contains information about biological functions of these metal ions, i.e. whether they are essential in general (e.g. Mg, Mn, Zn) or, for a few organisms of various kinds (e.g. Cd, V), not essential (e.g. rare earth element ions) or even generally highly toxic (Hg, U). It is hypothesized that, if coordination properties of metals control their biological ‘feasibility’ in some way, this should show up in the mappings (one each for mono and bidentate-bonding ligands). 3) eventually, the regression equation produced in step 1) is inverted to calculate complex stabilities pertinent to biological systems: 3a) complex stabilities are mapped for ligands delivered to soil (-water) by green plants (e.g. citrate, malate) and fungi and, compared to their unlike selectivities and demands of metal use (photosynthesis taking place or not), 3b) the evolution of the metallome during late chemical evolution is reconstructed.

Results

These maps show some ‘window of essentiality’, a small, contrived range/area of c and x parameters in which essential metal ions gather almost exclusively. c and x thus control the possibility of a metal ion becoming essential by their influencing details of metal-substrate or (in cases of catalytic activities) metal-product interactions. Exceptions are not known to be involved in biocatalysis anyhow.

Discussion

Effects of ligands secreted, e.g. from tree roots or agaric mycelia to the soil on the respective modes (selectivities) of metal bioconcentration can be calculated by the equation giving complex stability constants, with obvious ramifications for a thorough, systematic interpretation of biomonitoring data. Eventually, alterations of C, N and P-compounds during chemical evolution are investigated — which converted CH₄ or CO₂, N₂ and other non-ligands to amino acids, etc., for example, with the latter behaving as efficient chelating ligands: Did they cause metal ions to accumulate in what was going to become biological matter and was there a selectivity, a positive bias in favour of nowessential metals (see above) in this process? Though there was no complete selectivity of this kind, neither a RNA world in which early ribozymes effected most of biocatalysis, nor a paleoatmosphere containing substantial amounts of CO could have paved the way to the present biochemistry and metallomes.

Conclusions

This way of reasoning provides a causal account for abundance distributions described earlier in the Biological System of Elements (BSE; Markert 1994, Fränzle &; Markert 2000, 2002). There is a pronounced change from chemical evolution, where but few transformations depended on metal ion catalysis to biology.

Recommendations and Perspectives

The application of this numerical approach can be used for modified, weighted evaluation of biomonitoring analytical data, likewise for the prediction of bioconcentration hazards due to a manifold of metal ions, including organometallic ones. This is relevant in ecotoxicology and biomonitoring. In combining apoproteins or peptides synthesized from scratch for purposes of catalysing certain transformations, the map and numerical approaches might prove useful for the selection of central ions which are even more efficient than the ‘natural’ ones, like for Co²⁺ in many Zn enzymes.

     

近年来江苏省海岸带土地利用/覆被变化时空动态研究

海岸带是陆海生态系统交错带,具有重要的经济与生态价值,其生态环境具有脆弱性特征。海岸带的开发利用使其地区生态环境发生变化,而土地利用/覆被变化是地区生态环境变化的重要组成部分和主要原因之一。取1980、2000、2005、2008年4个时相的TM遥感影像为数据源,通过土地利用结构、土地利用多样性以及土地利用程度指数分析江苏省1980年以来海岸带土地利用/覆被变化的时空动态特征,揭示地域差异与梯度分异特征。研究结果表明：（1）江苏省海岸带土地利用结构表现为生态用地占比高,城镇与农村居民点占比低的特征。1980年以来,不同土地利用类型数量不断变化而结构相对稳定;类型趋于多样化且利用强度增加。（2）江苏省海岸带土地利用存在地域差异特征。土地利用结构存在不同模式且变化相对稳定;土地利用程度在南北方向上存在高 低 高分布特征,但逐步被打破。（3）江苏省海岸带土地利用在陆海方向上存在梯度特征。土地利用多样性陆海方向呈现低 高 低模式,土地利用强度陆海方向呈现高 中 低模式。土地利用多样性高值区逐步向海岸带中部移动;海岸带各缓冲区土地利用程度分异逐步增大。以射阳河口作为分界点,南北地区梯度规律存在差异性     

中国火灾的时空演变特征——基于GIS的统计分析

研究对象为2000-2009年中国341个地级以上城市(不含台湾及港澳地区)的火灾统计数据。首先应用主成分分析法,计算火灾综合损失(fire composite losts,FCL);再对FCL进行分级,将所有研究单元按FCL从小到大分为5个级别,较高FCL单元主要分布于黑河—腾冲线以东地区。对每个研究单元分别进行时间序列分析,观察其FCL变化趋势,将各区域分为平稳区、改善区、恶化区和波动区,其分别占比41%,40%,8%和11%,表明绝大多数城市FCL呈平稳或下降趋势。恶化区明显地沿黑河—腾冲线、淮河—大别山—雪峰山沿线和东南沿海分布,这可能与气候变化或社会经济发展有关。     

南苕溪支流锦溪水质时空变化特征分析

综合运用灰色聚类法、综合污染指数法、等级聚类法就南苕溪支流锦溪近年水质时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明,锦溪入青山水库断面水质2005—2009年逐年改善,2007年后达到灰色聚类等级Ⅲ类水质要求;2009年秋季至2010年夏季期间秋、冬两季的污染程度高于春、夏季节;枯水期综合污染指数最高,但TN、TP污染分指数在丰水期最高,表明污染源中面源污染已占相当比例。空间变化方面从玲珑桥到江桥锦溪水质的综合污染指数不断提升,到江桥时达到极值13.25,锦溪末端三眼桥断面水质较江桥断面有所改善;SPSS空间聚类分析可分为轻污染区(从玲珑桥到冬韵桥)、重污染区(从群利桥到江桥)和中度污染区(从江桥到三眼桥)。锦溪上游农业区对河水中的COD、TN和TP的贡献率分别为66%、54%和49%,农业面源污染已成为制约锦溪水质改善的主要因素。     

我国海洋产业结构与总体产业结构的演进规律对比分析

总体产业结构和海洋产业结构的发展演进呈现出不同的规律性.运用三轴图法对比分析1992-2009总体产业和海洋产业结构的演进规律及我国总体产业和海洋产业的发展情况,在此基础上探讨促进总体产业结构和海洋产业结构演进的主导因素,为产业政策的制订提供科学依据.     

基于“四元主体模型”的城市技术创新体系研究

依据创新型城市的基本内涵,构建出四元城市创新体系模型,形成以四元创新主体为核心,集知识、技术于一体的网络创新体系,说明城市创新体系四元模型中,各主体之间的关系及其伴随社会的不同发展时期四元模型的变化趋势和变化过程中主导驱动元素扮演的角色、作用和地位。     

中国自然资源政策演进历程与发展方向

自然资源政策是国家政策体系的重要组成部分,其社会关注度、复杂性、地区差异性等特征较为突出.1980年代以来,中国自然资源政策大致经历了上世纪80年代、1991-1997、1998-2003、2004 - 2010等四个阶段的演进,期间,社会经济发展形势不断发展变化,自然资源政策的需求和目标也不断变化,并为社会经济快速发展提供了政策基础;但同时也在政策一致性、政策权威性、政策公正性、政策认知性等方面,暴露出一些不足和缺憾.自2011年开始,资源政策的演进进入了第五个阶段.展望未来,为全面落实科学发展观和加快转变经济发展方式,中国自然资源政策应不断创新,重点在政府规制、全面负责、促进转型、系统协调和差异设计等方面不断优化和发展.     

变革中的中国水资源管理

水资源短缺是世界面临的共同危机,是制约国民经济健康稳定发展的重要“瓶颈”,水资源的可持续利用已经成为经济社会可持续发展的基础性、战略性问题.缓解水资源供需矛盾的关键是加强水资源的管理.文章回顾了中国水资源管理制度的发展演变历程:只管工程的非正式水资源管理、行政命令为主的正式制度萌芽、取水许可管理和基于水权的正规制度管理等四个阶段.尽管在确立以流域管理和区域管理相结合的综合管理体制,建立以水量分配、取水许可、水资源论证为主要内容的水权管理制度和以全成本核算为原则的水价管理制度等方面成绩显著,水资源管理中仍存在水资源权属不清、水环境权得不到保障等问题.今后中国水资源改革,首先应继续深化水权改革,推动水权明晰化,建立水权交易制度;其次,健全水环境权的法律法制规范,提供相关的法律保障;最后,完善部门间的合作协调机制,真正实现对水的协同管理.