华北地区干旱强度的表征形式及其气候变异

在分析1951-2001年华北地区降水量、气温及蒸发量变化特征的基础上,确定利用月降水量与蒸发量之差的Z指数表征干旱强度.该指数在时间及空问分布上的实际概率与理论概率均很接近,可以较好地表征华北地区干旱强度状况.分析表明,华北地区干旱强度不但具有显著的年代际变化特征,且年际振荡的信号也很强.华北地区四季的干旱强度变化在干旱期的开始时间、干旱持续时间和干旱强度等方面存在一定的差异.     

SEASONAL PUMPING VARIATION EFFECTS ON WELLHEAD PROTECTION AREA DELINEATION1

ABSTRACT: Delineation of a welihead protection area (WHPA) is the key element in welihead protection programs for drinking water supplies. WHPAs are often delineated under idealized conditions using simple steady-state assumptions, which lead to an incorrect estimation of area and geometry. In this paper, we compare the results from a simple steady-state procedure commonly employed in WHPA delineation with a more complex transient approach that allows consideration of seasonal variation in pumping rates. We also introduce a transient procedure to delineate time-related capture zones using a numerical ground water flow and transport model. Welihead delineation is examined for two municipal wells in Tipton, Oklahoma, using a ten-year time-of-travel criterion. In the steady-state procedure, where we assumed constant pumping rates, we used GPTRAC, a semi-analytical model, and MOC, a numerical model. The capture zone delineated by GPTRAC is comparable in shape with the capture zone delineated by MOC but not in size due to the differences in solution schemes. In the transient procedure, we used MOC and considered the seasonal variation in pumping rates. The capture zones delineated in this procedure were larger than the capture zones delineated by the steady-state procedure using the same model. Further analysis showed that a higher drawdown was predicted in the transient procedure than in the steady-state procedure, which is the reason for larger capture zones.     

SOURCES OF VARIABILITY IN PHOSPHORUS AND CHLOROPHYLL AND THEIR EFFECTS ON USE OF LAKE SURVEY DATA1

Summer lake survey measurements of total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (CHLa) from 188 reserviors and natural lakes in the midwest were analyzed to determine the magnitude of major sources of variability. Median variance among replicate samples collected at the same location and time was about 7-8 percent of the mean for both TP and CHLa. Median observed temporal variability within summers was 27 percent of the mean for TP and 45 percent of the mean for CHLa. Median values of year-to-year variance in average TP and CHLa were 22 percent and 31 percent of the mean, respectively. A range of approximately two orders of magnitude was observed among individual estimates of variance in each of these categories. The magnitude of observed temporal variability was affected only slightly by variance among replicate samples on individual days and was weakly correlated with the length of time during which samples were collected from individual lakes. Observed temporal variation was similar between reservoirs and natural lakes when variances were calculated with logtransformed data. The magnitude of temporal and year-to-year variance can severely limit the power of statistical comparisons of TP and CHLa means, but has less effect on establishing relative rankings of lake means, Sources and relative magnitude of variability are important in the use of TP and CHLa data in regression models and in the planning of lake surveys and subsequent data analysis.     

Nutrients Seasonal Variation and Budget in Jiaozhou Bay,China: A 3-Dimensional Physical–Biological Coupled Model Study

A 3-D biological model was developed and coupled to a hydrodynamic model, i.e., Princeton Ocean Model, to simulate the seasonal variation and budget of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, phosphate, and silicate in Jiaozhou Bay. The modeled nutrients distribution pattern is consistent with observation. Silicate, the most important limiting element for phytoplankton growth, is characterized by consumption in spring, increase in summer and autumn, and accumulation in winter, whereas dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorous have increasing trend with low rates in spring, due to excessive river loads. Phytoplankton plays an important role in nutrient renewal by photosynthesis and respiration processes. During an annual cycle, 7.83 × 10³ t N, 0.28 × 10³ t P, and 3.93 × 10³ t Si are transported to the bay’s outer sea, i.e., the Yellow Sea, suggesting that Jiaozhou Bay is a significant source of nutrients for the Yellow Sea. The spatial distribution of nutrients is characterized by vertically homogeneous profiles, with high concentration inside the bay and low concentration toward the bay channel. These features are mainly governed by strong turbulent mixing, fluvial influx, water exchange rate, and Yellow Sea water intrusion. Numerical experiments suggest that the government should pay enough attention to proper layout of sewage drainage.     

近48年来广东春旱的变化

为了更好地做好广东省春旱的短期气候预测，用EOF分析、小波分析和相关分析等方法，对近48年（1957—2004年）来广东受害较大的春旱（2—5月）的变化规律及其成因进行了研究。结果表明，广东春季降水具有明显的2～3年和4年左右的年际变化以及36年左右的年代际变化。春旱主要发生在1960—1971年和1994—2004年，20世纪90年代以来严重春旱的发生呈增多趋势。1976／1977年之后，阶段性的冷与涝、暖与旱相对应，而其之前的这一相关性则不好。广东春季降水的异常主要与极涡、西太平副热带高压的强弱、亚洲大陆及其以北的500hPa环流异常有关。异常春早年500hPa同期环流场上极涡较强，偏向鄂霍次克海，亚洲大陆及其以北为明显的正高度距平，冷空气的活动偏强，副高偏东偏弱。850hpa流场上广东到南海盛行偏北气流，不利于降水的产生。异常涝年的情况则基本相反。     

郑州市耕地资源安全的时空特征分析

耕地资源安全是保障我国国民经济发展的重要条件之一,又关系到我国的粮食安全。借用生物学的承载力分析方法,设定耕地资源安全测度指标,建立了耕地资源安全测度模型,对郑州市1996—2005年10年来耕地资源安全进行了测算,并分析了耕地资源的时空特征。     

Population Analysis of Sables in the Ural–Ob Region of the Species Range

An attempt at population analysis of sables in the Ural–Ob region of the species range was made with the use of vast biological material (craniometry, 1909 specimens; ecological structure, 2157 specimens; and coat color, 439169 pelts). Population groups in the region were mainly described on the basis of morphological, geographic, historical, and ecological criteria. Seven spatially separated population groups were found, which were named after the main rivers of their habitats: the Tavda–Konda–Sos'va, Dem'yanka, Salym–Yugan, Agan–Vakh, Kazym–Nazym, Nadym–Kunovat, and Pur–Taz groups. They distinctly differed from one another with respect to cranial measurements, coat color, and some structural demographic parameters. In some cases, morphological differences reached the subspecies level. The data obtained make it possible to revise the pattern of geographic variation within the species range.     

月亮泡底泥中元素的分布及其生态风险评价

对吉林省西部月亮泡底泥中元素的空间分布、来源以及重金属的潜在生态风险进行了研究。与吉林省中西部土壤中元素平均值相比,月亮泡表层底泥中明显富Hg、Pb、Ca、N,而相对贫As、Co、Mn、Th、Cl、Na。在湖底表层底泥中,As、Hg、U、Cd、Cu、Zn、Cr、Se、Mo、Co、Ni、Mn、N、P、MgO、Fe2O3、CaO、有机碳与Al2O3呈明显的正相关关系,表明它们的地球化学性质与粘土矿物的含量密切相关。表层底泥中Hg、Cd、As、Cr、Cu、Zn、Pb的潜在生态危害性均很小。在月亮泡的两个沉积柱中,元素含量随深度的变化不尽相同。在沉积柱1中,Fe2O3、Mn、P、Zn、Cu、Ni、Co、Cr、Cd等元素含量随深度变化不大,表明其沉积环境较为稳定。在沉积柱2中,元素含量波动较大,表明该沉积柱的沉积环境较为动荡,并在76～80cm和104～108cm处,As、Fe2O3、Mn、P、Cu、Zn、Co、Ni、Cd、Th、U等含量急剧增高;在70～90cm处Mn/Fe比值高,表明当时干旱少雨、沉积环境较为氧化,在104～108cm处Rb/Sr比高,可能反映当时高温多雨、化学风化作用较为强烈。两个沉积柱的Cr/Th比基本相似,表明沉积柱的物源基本相同。沉积柱中重金属的潜在生态危害程度也很小,表明从垂向上进入月亮泡水体的重金属污染物数量也很少。     

南太湖地区小型浅水湖泊自净能力季节变化研究

以南太湖地区小型浅水湖泊为对象,研究了湖泊水体自净能力季节变化的特征.结果表明,湖泊对高锰酸盐指数、总氮(TN)、铵态氮(NH4+-N)、硝态氮(NO3--N)、总磷(TP)、叶绿素a(Chl-a)的净化能力季节性差异较大.各水质指标春季和冬季自净效果较好,夏季自净效果较差的是NH4+-N和NO3--N,秋季是TP和Chl-a.湖泊四季水体有机污染较轻,TN、TP污染严重.TN、TP浓度条件适宜藻类生长,水体容易发生富营养化,磷为限制性因子.Chl-a浓度显示湖泊在夏秋两季处于富营养化水平,冬春两季转变为中营养水平.浮游植物的生长与暴发对水质有较大影响,并影响到湖泊的自净能力.影响水体pH值和溶解氧(DO)浓度的主要因素是水生植物的种类和数量,农田肥料流失和农村生活污水排放是造成水体中氮磷含量过高的主要原因.过量使用有机肥使得夏季湖泊水体中有机氮占TN的主要部分,其他季节NO3--N占TN的主要部分.主成分分析结果表明,影响南太湖地区小型浅水湖泊自净能力的3个主成分分别为浮游植物因子(水温、pH、高锰酸盐指数和Chl-a)、农田排水因子(pH、DO和TN)和营养因子(TN和TP).聚类分析结果表明,3个湖泊11个采样点4个季节的水质可聚为两大类,春秋冬季为一类,夏季为一类,这一结果是受温度变化及农田排水所致.利用水温和pH拟合出用于计算湖泊水体中的高锰酸盐指数、TN、TP、Chl-a的线性方程,提高了现场快速预测能力.     

黔中喀斯特石漠化地区土壤温室气体浓度的时空分布特征

2006~2007年对喀斯特石漠化地区土壤剖面中CO2、N2O和CH4的浓度分布进行观测.结果表明,土壤剖面中CO2、N2O和CH4浓度分别介于530.2~31512.6、0.27~0.67和0.1~3.5μL.L-1.总体上,自地表向下,CO2和N2O浓度逐渐增大,CH4浓度则为逐渐减小,但在阴冷潮湿的10、11月和1月,15cm以下土层中CO2和N2O浓度随着深度的增加逐渐减小,CH4浓度则明显增加.土壤温度、水分同时影响剖面中CO2、N2O和CH4的时空分布,但影响效应以及作用的土层深度有所不同.相关分析结果表明,土壤中CO2和N2O浓度的时空分布显著正相关(r为0.780~0.894,p0.05~0.01),相关关系受环境因子的影响;CO2和CH4的时空分布则呈显著负相关关系(r=330,p0.01);N2O和CH4的空间分布为互逆关系,但只在土壤水分较大月份达到显著水平(r为-0.829~-0.956,p0.05~0.01).