An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

乡村人居环境系统韧性的演变规律及其提升路径——以国家城乡融合发展试验区重庆西部片区为例

以国家城乡融合发展试验区——重庆西部片区为研究区,以2009年、2014年、2019年为研究时点,以2009—2019年为研究时段,按照思想缘起、理论基础、实证演绎、提升路径的研究思路,建立乡村人居环境系统韧性测度的指标体系,分析其演变规律。研究结果表明：2009—2019年,重庆西部片区的乡村人居环境系统韧性水平不断上升,呈现出“南高北低”的空间格局。各子系统韧性在时间上呈现出不同程度的增长趋势,在空间上差异明显：自然系统韧性与人类系统韧性分别呈现出“由南向北递减”和“东西部向中部递减”的空间格局;居住系统韧性与支撑系统韧性则分别呈现出由“低值点缀分布”逐渐过渡到较为均衡和“普遍均衡、高低值点缀”的空间格局;社会系统韧性表现为“西部增强、东部减弱”的空间格局特征。借助障碍度模型对重庆西部片区乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的障碍因子及不同区县面临的主导障碍进行诊断,根据结果将重庆西部片区划分为单一主导障碍型、双重障碍型与三层障碍型三种类型,据此设计乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的差异化路径,以期打破重庆西部片区乡村人居环境系统韧性提升的多重制约。     

中国旅游业绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响机理

绿色发展是旅游业可持续发展理念的重要组成部分,是旅游业奉行以人为本、生态至上和全面发展的新价值观。在梳理旅游业绿色发展概念及内涵基础上,构建旅游业绿色发展效率评价体系,运用SBM-Undersirable模型、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链等方法,探讨2008—2018年中国31个省（市、自治区）旅游业绿色发展效率（TGDE）时空演化特征及影响机理。研究发现：（1）时间和空间变化方面,TGDE总体处于中等偏下水平,时间上呈“W”型变化形态,“下降—上升—调整”阶段特征显著;空间呈“东—中—西”递减分布,内部差异为西部地区>东部地区>中部地区,低、中、高效率由“金字塔”向“菱形”结构转变,高效率地区集中于东部沿海,中等效率多分布于中西部地区,低效率位于胡焕庸线两侧。（2）动态演进方面,TGDE始终存在两极分化现象,但区域协调性逐步增强,具有较强平稳性,难以实现跨越式发展,空间向上转移省份比较集中,以中西部为主,向下调整省份较少,且存在明显的空间溢出效应,溢出影响具有不对称性。（3）影响机理方面,总体上,经济水平、产业结构、政府规制、教育水平和旅游资源影响因子与TGDE间存在显著的正向关系,对外开放程度的作用不显著,但各因子的影响程度、作用机理及条件具有较强地域性。     

基于流域演化的泥石流敏感性分析

基于泥石流来源于某些处于特殊演化阶段的分支小流域的理论,分析了面积高程曲线及其参数与泥石流活动的关系。面积高程曲线积分值S表征流域内松散固体物质量,S/2对应的相对高差比值K表征流域源地面积在不同高程的分布,以S和K为参数提出泥石流敏感性分析思路。针对汶川县主要公路(都汶公路和省道303)沿线泥石流敏感性分析,在Arcgis、Matlab等软件的支持下,基于震前1:50 000地形数据,计算了研究区泥石流流域的S和K。根据计算结果,初步判定了各流域的地貌发育阶段,以及流域源地汇水区的高程位置。并根据震后泥石流实际活动情况,对于S小于0.5但又属于震后频发型,或者S值大于0.5但其面积较大且分支较多泥石流沟,进行了次一级子流域的面积高程值计算,判定其易发生泥石流具体源地。最后,根据流域面积高程值S得出了研究区泥石流敏感性分级图,分析结果基本反应了地貌演化对泥石流发生能力的潜在影响。     

长江中下游流域旱涝急转时空演变特征分析

基于长江中下游流域75个雨量站1960~2012年的日降水资料,通过定义长、短周期旱涝急转指数,全面地分析了长江中下游流域旱涝急转的趋势变化和时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)长周期旱涝急转表现为以涝转旱事件为主,且存在由旱涝急转事件向全旱或全涝事件过渡的趋势,短周期的旱涝急转发生频率较高的也是涝转旱事件;(2)长江中下游北岸多发生旱转涝事件,南岸则多发生涝转旱事件;(3)1998年和2011年6~7月短周期高强度旱转涝事件发生在长江北岸,涝转旱事件发生在南岸地区;5~6月与7~8月旱涝急转事件强度分布则呈相反状态;(4)总体来说,长、短周期涝转旱频次呈现不断减小的趋势,旱转涝有轻微增加的趋势。7~8月则较为特殊,湘江流域涝转旱有增加的趋势,洞庭湖地区涝转旱显著增加,此研究结果可以为长江中下游流域防洪抗旱工作提供一定的依据。     

Spray mechanism of crepidogastrine bombardier beetles (Carabidae; Crepidogastrini)

Summary.   The defensive glandular apparatus of primitive bombardier beetles of the tribe Crepidogastrini (Carabidae) is described for the first time. As exemplified by two African species (Crepidogaster ambreana and C. atrata), the apparatus conforms to the basic bombardier plan, in that the glands are bicompartmented and the secretion is quinonoid (it contains 1,4-benzoquinones and hydrocarbons), hot, and discharged audibly. In a number of morphological respects the crepidogastrine apparatus resembles that of the classical bombardiers of the tribe Brachinini (rather than that of bombardiers of the paussoid lineage), reinforcing the view, already held on taxonomic grounds, that the Crepidogastrini and Brachinini are closely related. That the Crepidogastrini may be primitive relative to Brachinini is underscored by the finding that, unlike brachinines, crepidogastrines do not pulse their secretory emissions. Moreover, they discharge their secretion as a mist, rather than forcibly in the form of jets. Received 22 May 2001; accepted 29 May 2001.     

Association of Coloration Mode with Population Declines and Endangerment in Australian Frogs

Abstract: Successful protection of biodiversity requires increased understanding of the ecological characteristics that predispose some species to endangerment. Theory posits that species with polymorphic or variable coloration should have larger distributions, use more diverse resources, and be less vulnerable to population declines and extinctions, compared with taxa that do not vary in color. We used information from literature on 194 species of Australian frogs to search for associations of coloration mode with ecological variables. In general, species with variable or polymorphic color patterns had larger ranges, used more habitats, were less prone to have a negative population trend, and were estimated as less vulnerable to extinction compared with nonvariable species. An association of variable coloration with lower endangerment was also evident when we controlled statistically for the effects of range size. Nonvariable coloration was not a strong predictor of endangerment, and information on several characteristics is needed to reliably identify and protect species that are prone to decline and may become threatened by extinction in the near future. Analyses based on phylogenetic‐independent contrasts did not support the hypothesis that evolutionary transitions between nonvariable and variable or polymorphic coloration have been accompanied by changes in the ecological variables we examined. Irrefutable demonstration of a role of color pattern variation in amphibian decline and in the dynamics and persistence of populations in general will require a manipulative experimental approach.     

Larval chemical defence and evolution of host shifts in Chrysomela leaf beetles

Summary. Larvae of Chrysomela leaf beetles release for defence volatile compounds belonging to various chemical families. This study focuses on the defensive strategy based on the esterification of isobutyric acid and 2-methylbutyric acid with a wide variety of alcohols taken up from the host plant. To date, only two species are known to produce these repellents C. interrupta, which is associated with Betulaceae and C. lapponica which occurs either on Betulaceae or Salicaceae.? In order to know if other species have developed this chemical defence and how the food plant influences the secretion of these toxins, we targeted by mass spectrometry the presence of iso- and 2-methylbutyric acids and esters of them in the defensive secretions of Chrysomela larvae exclusively associated with Betulaceae or Salicaceae. ?Screening analyses reveal that the synthesis of these compounds is a common character restricted to all the members belonging to the C. interrupta group sensu Brown (1956) regardless of the host-plant family. These results suggest that the biochemical mechanism leading to the synthesis of these compounds could be considered as a synapomorphy meaning that the group is probably monophyletic. ?Defensive secretions of the members of the interrupta group are quantitatively assayed for iso- and 2-methylbutyric acids and their (Z)-3-hexenyl esters. Results reveal a chemical plasticity developed by Chrysomela species associated with Salicaceae. The amounts of iso- and 2-methylbutyric acids derivatives and of salicylaldehyde in their larval secretions depend on the food plant and on its content in phenolglucosides. Received 5 October 1998; accepted 25 November 1998.     

论绿色经济网络

绿色经济的发展过程是对传统经济的扬弃过程，在这一过程形成了各种形式的绿色经济系统，这些系统组成了一个绿色经济网络。绿色经济网络本身也在不断演进，范围逐步扩大，绿色内涵逐步深化。本文论述了绿色经济网络的形成与演进过程，并构建了绿色经济系统演进的推进模型。     

THE DISCHARGE OF SEDIMENT IN CHANNELIZED ALLUVIAL STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Approximately 400 million cubic feet of channel sediments have been delivered to the Mississippi River from the Obion-Forked Deer River system in the last 20 years. The discharge of sediment from these channelized networks in West Tennessee varies systematically with the stage of channel evolution. Variations in yields over time reflect the shifting dominance of fluvial and mass-wasting processes as the networks adjust to lower energy conditions. Maximum bed-material discharges occur during the initial phases of degradation (Stage III). In contrast, yields of suspended-sediment peak during the threshold stage (Stage 1V: large-scale mass wasting) as sediments are delivered from main-channel banks and tributary beds. Suspended-sediment yields then decrease as aggradation (Stage V) becomes the dominant trend in the main channels, but remains relatively high through restabiliza-tion (Stage VI) because of continued degradation and widening in the tributaries. Bed-material discharges decrease from the degradation stage (III) to Stage V, and increase again during restabiliza-tion (Stage VI) because secondary aggradation increases gradients and incipient meandering serves to rework bed sediments. This secondary maxima in bed-material discharge is analogous to those described previously as complex, or oscillatory, response. The trends of sediment production and transport described from these rejuvenated networks are in agreement with experimental and theoretical results of earlier investigations.