Continuity,social change and Katrina

For some time, disaster researchers have looked for social change and mostly found continuity. This paper argues that shifting the focus from investigating social change to documenting continuity may enhance the understanding and planning of post‐disaster situations especially in industrialised societies like the United States. Drawing from qualitative data from post‐Katrina New Orleans, it proposes using the concept of continuity as an analytical device both to identify the axes of continuity and evaluate the likelihood and possible dimensions of social change. The analysis of long‐term recovery plans, along with field observations and interviews with evacuees, suggest that despite the well‐documented emergence of conflict in post‐Katrina New Orleans, the likelihood of social change appears limited.     

西南山地区域森林火险综合预报模型研究——以重庆市为例

森林火灾严重破坏森林生态系统的结构和功能,针对其风险预报开展研究具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。通过融合气象、地表覆盖和人类活动等要素的方式构建森林火险综合预报模型,是西南山地区域森林火险综合预报业务化应用的重要发展方向。基于《森林火险气象等级》国家标准(GB/T 36743-2018),本文研究首先构建了重庆市森林火险气象风险预报模型。然后通过融合可燃物因素和人为因素的方式,进一步构建重庆市森林火险综合预报模型。最后利用历史火点数据针对上述两类模型的精度进行对比和分析。研究结果表明:重庆市森林火灾发生次数较多,且呈现出季节性规律;重庆市森林火灾的发生不仅受到气象条件的影响,而且受到地表覆盖和人类活动等多种要素条件的共同影响;与森林火险气象风险预报结果相比,森林火险综合预报结果在空间分布上具有更高的精细程度;森林火险综合预报模型能有效提高森林火险等级预报精度。     

Quantitative Assessment of a Tanzanian Integrated Conservation and Development Project Involving Butterfly Farming

Abstract: Scientific understanding of the role of development in conservation has been hindered by the quality of evaluations of integrated conservation and development projects. We used a quasi‐experimental design to quantitatively assess a conservation and development project involving commercial butterfly farming in the East Usambara Mountains of Tanzania. Using a survey of conservation attitudes, beliefs, knowledge, and behavior, we compared 150 butterfly farmers with a control group of 170 fellow community members. Due to the nonrandom assignment of individuals to the two groups, we used propensity‐score matching and weighting in our analyses to control for observed bias. Eighty percent of the farmers believed butterfly farming would be impossible if local forests were cleared, and butterfly farmers reported significantly more participation in forest conservation behaviors and were more likely to believe that conservation behaviors were effective. The two groups did not differ in terms of their general conservation attitudes, attitudes toward conservation officials, or knowledge of conservation‐friendly building techniques. The relationship between butterfly farming and conservation behavior was mediated by dependency on butterfly farming income. Assuming unobserved bias played a limited role, our findings suggest that participation in butterfly farming increased participation in conservation behaviors among project participants because farmers perceive a link between earnings from butterfly farming and forest conservation.     

Hunter Reporting of Catch per Unit Effort as a Monitoring Tool in a Bushmeat‐Harvesting System

Abstract: Growing threats to biodiversity in the tropics mean there is an increasing need for effective monitoring that balances scientific rigor with practical feasibility. Alternatives to professional techniques are emerging that are based on the involvement of local people. Such locally based monitoring methods may be more sustainable over time, allow greater spatial coverage and quicker management decisions, lead to increased compliance, and help encourage attitude shifts toward more environmentally sustainable practices. Nevertheless, few studies have yet compared the findings or cost‐effectiveness of locally based methods with professional techniques or investigated the power of locally based methods to detect trends. We gathered data on bushmeat‐hunting catch and effort using a professional technique (accompanying hunters on hunting trips) and two locally based methods in which data were collected by hunters (hunting camp diaries and weekly hunter interviews) in a 15‐month study in Equatorial Guinea. Catch and effort results from locally based methods were strongly correlated with those of the professional technique and the spatial locations of hunting trips reported in the locally based methods accurately reflected those recorded with the professional technique. We used power simulations of catch and effort data to show that locally based methods can reliably detect meaningful levels of change (20% change with 80% power at significance level [α]= 0.05) in multispecies catch per unit effort. Locally based methods were the most cost‐effective for monitoring. Hunter interviews collected catch and effort data on 240% more hunts per person hour and 94% more hunts per unit cost, spent on monitoring, than the professional technique. Our results suggest that locally based monitoring can offer an accurate, cost‐effective, and sufficiently powerful method to monitor the status of natural resources. To establish such a system in Equatorial Guinea, the current lack of national and local capacity for monitoring and management must be addressed.     

利用景观梯度法分析张家港市城市景观变化

在遥感与GIS技术平台的支持下,利用景观格局梯度法分析了张家港市各土地利用类型的景观格局及其时空分布特征.研究结果表明,2002-2006年,张家港市城市景观格局总体变化明显,城镇用地增长22.10%,农业用地则减少14.96%.在空间上,呈现出城市一城乡交错带一农业区的变化特征;在时间上,整体样带体现出斑块密度升高、...     

武汉市城市绿化树种结构与分布特征分析

针对武汉市城市森林的抽样调查分析表明,城市树木树种构成集聚性明显而多样性相对较差、长势一般;城市扰动因素明显影响了树木的自然生长过程。在所调查的93种植物中,其总体多样性指数为0.727 8;行道绿地为0.187;公园绿地为4.296。结果表明武汉市城市森林的基本格局、树种结构,以及树种分布上均有待于改善。     

Habitat Split as a Cause of Local Population Declines of Amphibians with Aquatic Larvae

Abstract:  Most amphibian species have biphasic life histories and undergo an ontogenetic shift from aquatic to terrestrial habitats. In deforested landscapes, streams and forest fragments are frequently disjunct, jeopardizing the life cycle of forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae. We tested the impact of habitat split—defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life-history stages of a species—on four forest-associated amphibian species in a severely fragmented landscape of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We surveyed amphibians in forest fragments with and without streams (referred to as wet and dry fragments, respectively), including the adjacent grass-field matrix. Our comparison of capture rates in dry fragments and nearby streams in the matrix allowed us to evaluate the number of individuals that engaged in high-risk migrations through nonforested habitats. Adult amphibians moved from dry fragments to matrix streams at the beginning of the rainy season, reproduced, and returned at the end of the breeding period. Juveniles of the year moved to dry fragments along with adults. These risky reproductive migrations through nonforested habitats that expose individuals to dehydration, predation, and other hazards may cause population declines in dry fragments. Indeed, capture rates were significantly lower in dry fragments compared with wet fragments. Declining amphibians would strongly benefit from investments in the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation and corridors linking breeding and nonbreeding areas.     

桂西北喀斯特区原生林与次生林凋落物及养分归还特征比较

森林凋落物是森林生态系统的重要组成成分,其养分归还量在一定程度上决定着土壤养分有效性的高低。在土层浅薄且土被很不连续的我国喀斯特区域进行凋落物生物量及养分归还研究对我们更深刻地了解该区养分循环具有至关重要的意义。本文比较分析了桂西北喀斯特区3种原生林与3种次生林的全年凋落物量、组成、月凋落物量动态及养分归还量与动态。结果表明,圆果化香(Platycarya longipes Wu)、大叶蚊母树(Distylium Sieb.et Zucc.)与青檀(Pteroceltis tatarinowii Maxim.)3种原生林的年凋落物总量分别为2342.16,4057.99和1834.36kg·hm-2,而圆叶乌桕(Sapium rotundifolium Hemsl.)、八角枫(Alangium chinense(Lour.) Harms)和黄荆(Vitex negundo L.)3种次生林的年凋落物总量分别为3192.82,3284.26,2469.90kg·hm-2,除大叶蚊母树外,次生林年凋落物总量大于原生林。凋落物的组成中,叶凋落生物量均占总凋落物量的80%左右,甚至更高,而圆叶乌桕、八角枫和黄荆3种次生林群落的叶凋落物量占总凋落物量的百分比大于圆果化香、大叶蚊母树以及青檀3种原生林。凋落物的养分归还量的月动态与凋落物量的月动态一致,原生林呈"U"形曲线,而次生林则呈"W"形曲线。原生林和次生林凋落物的年养分归还量均为C﹥N﹥K﹥P,且次生林的C、N、P养分的归还量大于原生林。     

上海市沿海防护林下土壤养分、微生物及酶的典型相关关系

以上海市沿海防护林为研究对象,选择6种不同树种的防护林带,采集0～10、10～20、20～40、40～60cm四层土样为研究材料,运用典型相关分析法,对防护林地土壤养分因子、微生物因子和酶活性因子中每两组变量间的相关性进行了分析。结果表明：三组变量土壤养分、微生物、酶活性中,每两者之间均有显著的典型相关变量存在,而且基本能够代表变量总体相关信息;土壤养分和土壤微生物间的相关主要由全氮、速效磷含量与微生物生物量氮、微生物生物量碳和微生物生物量磷引起;土壤养分与土壤酶活性间的相关性主要由全氮、有效磷、水解氮含量与脲酶、蛋白酶活性的相关性引起;土壤微生物与土壤酶活性间的相关性主要是由微生物生物量氮、微生物生物量磷与脲酶、蛋白酶、碱性磷酸酶活性的相关性引起;不同林地不同土壤层次的养分、微生物及酶活性在各对典型变量上的聚集趋势可为防护林建设过程中的树种选择与土壤健康诊提供一定的依据。     

2000—2007年珠峰自然保护区植被时空变化与驱动因子

采用遥感与GIS相结合的方法研究了珠峰自然保护区2000—2007年之间的植被时空变化过程和驱动机制问题。通过一元线性回归斜率计算获取了基于EVI数据的珠峰自然保护区植被变化趋势,以及表现2000—2007年植被变化的矢量图层。利用GIS时间动画技术,建立了7个时间点内不同间隔的植被时空演化过程快照,并结合ArcEngine构建了植被变化监测的时序分析流程,提取和分析了植被变化过程的时空特征。依据年平均温和年降水量观测记录进行了植被变化的气候因子分析,依据道路、河流缓冲区的居民点密度与植被退化面积比例的相关性,分析了人类活动影响,并讨论了不同植被退化区域在多重因素作用下的变化驱动因子。拟合了主要社会经济发展指标与植被变化的相关性,从统计数据方面讨论了珠峰自然保护区社会经济发展对植被变化的影响作用。结果表明：珠峰自然保护区植被变化的总体趋势以稳定为主,但植被退化趋势超过了变好趋势。同时,核心区植被变好趋势明显,实验区植被退化趋势严重。保护区南坡植被受气候变化干扰小,保持了大部分变好趋势;北坡由于降水减少造成湿地植被退化,对草地的长势带来消极作用。人类活动与植被状态变化有密切关系,在沟谷地带的破坏作用明显。并且,植被退化趋势与农业耕地面积扩大以及放牧影响关联紧密,而牲畜饲养与林业发展都未对保护区植被变化造成明显影响。