相对两面受火的方中空夹层钢管混凝土柱耐火极限

在已有设计与实践中,较多关注四面均匀受火的钢管混凝土柱耐火极限的研究。但是通常在实际火灾中,钢管混凝土柱常出现相对两面受火这种非均匀受火情况,且该受火情况下钢管混凝土柱的受力机理与抗火性能与均匀受火情况有所不同。因此以方中空夹层钢管混凝土短柱为研究对象,采用ABAQUS有限元软件建立了方中空夹层钢管混凝土短柱在相对两面受火情况下的抗火分析模型,利用试验验证后的模型对构件耐火极限的影响因素进行了分析,分析结果表明:荷载比是影响方中空夹层钢管混凝土柱耐火极限的主要影响参数,表现为荷载比越大,耐火极限越小。基于参数分析结果,回归了相对两面受火方式下的构件耐火极限简化计算公式,为以后对此类构件耐火极限的研究提供参考。     

方中空夹层钢管混凝土柱火灾后剩余轴压承载力

为探究影响方中空夹层钢管混凝土火灾后剩余轴压承载力的因素,利用ABAQUS有限元软件,建立方中空夹层钢管混凝土的温度场和力学场分析模型。通过建模分析,可以得出以下结论:计算长度、空心率、受火时间、钢材强度、混凝土强度、荷载偏心率是影响方中空夹层钢管混凝土火灾后剩余轴压承载力的主要因素,其影响规律为:方中空夹层钢管混凝土柱剩余承载力随计算长度、空心率、荷载偏心率、受火时间的增加而降低;随混凝土强度和钢材强度的增加而增加。在参数分析结果的基础上,给出了该类构件火灾后剩余轴压承载力的简化计算公式,该公式的精度较高,与数值程序计算结果相近,可为此类构件火灾后剩余承载力计算提供参考。     

Multi-metric evaluation of the models WARM,CropSyst, and WOFOST for rice

WARM (Water Accounting Rice Model) simulates paddy rice (Oryza sativa L.), based on temperature-driven development and radiation-driven crop growth. It also simulates: biomass partitioning, floodwater effect on temperature, spikelet sterility, floodwater and chemicals management, and soil hydrology. Biomass estimates from WARM were evaluated and compared with the ones from two generic crop models (CropSyst, WOFOST). The test-area was the Po Valley (Italy). Data collected at six sites from 1989 to 2004 from rice crops grown under flooded and non-limiting conditions were split into a calibration (to estimate some model parameters) and a validation set. For model evaluation, a fuzzy-logic based multiple-metrics indicator (MQI) was used: 0 (best) ≤ MQI ≤ 1 (worst). WARM estimates compared well with the actual data (mean MQI = 0.037 against 0.167 and 0.173 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). On an average, the three models performed similarly for individual validation metrics such as modelling efficiency (EF > 0.90) and correlation coefficient (R > 0.98). WARM performed best in a weighed measure of the Akaike Information Criterion: (worst) 0<wk<1$0<w_k<1$ (best), considering estimation accuracy and number of parameters required to achieve it (mean wk=0.983$w_k=0.983$ against 0.007 and ∼0.000 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). WARM results were sensitive to 30% of the model parameters (ratio being lower with both CropSyst, <10%, and WOFOST, <20%), but appeared the easiest model to use because of the lowest number of crop parameters required (10 against 15 and 34 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). This study provides a concrete example of the possibilities offered using a range of assessment metrics to evaluate model estimates, predictive capabilities, and complexity.     

方形组合式钢丝绳隔震器静刚度试验研究

作者研制了一种新型方形组合式钢丝绳隔震器。该种隔震器由4个条形夹具夹持16根普通镀锌钢丝绳组合而成,从结构形式上保证了水平刚度对称。经过多次垂直向循环静力加卸载试验,运用Origin 7.0软件对实验数据进行分析处理,绘制出该种隔震器的静力特性曲线,并分别与目前防护工程中采用的条形不锈钢钢丝绳隔震器、鼓形钢丝绳隔震器的静力特性曲线进行了比较。试验结果表明,方形组合式钢丝绳隔震器不但具有初始刚度大、软特性明显、阻尼大、加工简便、性价比高等优点,而且克服了条形不锈钢钢丝绳隔震器价格高、水平刚度不相同和鼓形钢丝绳隔震器加工复杂的不足,在今后的防护工程隔震技术中有良好的应用前景。     

核电站电缆安全使用寿命评定方法

针对核电站电缆寿命评定试验的若干要素,结合该类电缆常用的两种高分子绝缘材料即交联聚乙烯和低烟无卤交联聚乙烯的特点,设计了完善其安全寿命评定试验的方案,并按相关要求进行长达5000h的试验,该方案运用数理统计中准确性较高的最小二乘法原理对试验数据进行处理,克服了以电性能加速老化手段评估电缆安全寿命时准确性较差的缺陷。最终结果验证了该类电缆能够满足其使用60年的要求,对核电站电缆的设计及安全运行具有重要的现实意义。     

统计分析方法在大气环境监测数据符合性分析中的应用探讨

通过汇总分析气井的试气环境监测数据,选择AERMOD模式,运用EIAProA软件模拟预测试气SO2浓度,对实测和预测数据进行F检验和t检验,验证其方差是否符合显著性要求,同时检验其相关系数、系统均方差和非系统均方差,结果表明符合指数,满足论文预设的70%的要求。     

预测铜生物毒性的偏最小二乘回归模型

以黄河水体中的铜作为典型污染物,单细胞淡水藻斜生栅藻作为实验生物,应用偏最小二乘回归方法建立了铜的生物毒性预测模型.结果表明,黄河水体中阳离子(K⁺、Na⁺、Mg²⁺)浓度与铜的半抑制浓度(EC₅₀)成负相关,而水体中的DOC、碱度和阴离子浓度与铜的EC₅₀成正相关;影响铜的生物毒性的主要因子是DOC、pH值、碱度和温度.     

Spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollution estimated by different interpolation methods: accuracy and uncertainty analysis

Mapping the spatial distribution of contaminants in soils is the basis of pollution evaluation and risk control. Interpolation methods are extensively applied in the mapping processes to estimate the heavy metal concentrations at unsampled sites. The performances of interpolation methods (inverse distance weighting, local polynomial, ordinary kriging and radial basis functions) were assessed and compared using the root mean square error for cross validation. The results indicated that all interpolation methods provided a high prediction accuracy of the mean concentration of soil heavy metals. However, the classic method based on percentages of polluted samples, gave a pollution area 23.54-41.92% larger than that estimated by interpolation methods. The difference in contaminated area estimation among the four methods reached 6.14%. According to the interpolation results, the spatial uncertainty of polluted areas was mainly located in three types of region: (a) the local maxima concentration region surrounded by low concentration (clean) sites, (b) the local minima concentration region surrounded with highly polluted samples; and (c) the boundaries of the contaminated areas.     

贵州省境内乌江干流水质现状分析

根据贵州省环境监测部门资料显示乌江已成为贵州省水污染程度最为严重的流域,突出的问题是总磷、氟化物超标。本文用最小二乘法模型和t检验方法对贵州省境内乌江干流2006—2013年水质状况进行分析,结果表明乌江干流总磷、氨氮、氟化物,高锰盐指数浓度变化趋式为"无趋势",乌江干流水质稳定,并提出流域污染防治的对策和建议。     

偏最小二乘回归法在非点源污染年负荷量估算中的应用

针对非点源污染数据资料稀缺,机理模型难以建立,而统计模型所需资料相对比较易于获得,计算简便直观,并且在水环境规划管理中对非点源的年负荷量预测、估算的指导意义要大于对某一时点、某一断面的负荷量的模拟预测的情况,尝试将综合了多元回归、主成分分析、典型相关分析的偏最小二乘回归法用于建立流域非点源污染年负荷量的模拟估算模型,同时运用水文分析法以淮河淮南段为例进行计算并对两种方法进行对比,分析各自优缺点及其适用范围。应用表明,水文分析法适用于一年以上的非点源污染负荷量估算而对单次或短期的估算误差较大。偏最小二乘回归法解决了多元回归时变量具有多重相关性的问题,能够在样本数量少的情况下建模,提高相关分析的精度,具有较强的解释能力。