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721.
Richard L. Cooley Aldo V. Vecchia 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1987,23(4):581-599
ABSTRACT: A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that includsion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals. 相似文献
722.
Emmet M. Owens Steven W. Effler Francesco Trama 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(2):219-227
ABSTRACT: The thermal stratification characteristics of a flow-augmentation reservoir, Round Valley Reservoir, New Jersey, and attendant driving conditions were documented and analyzed for portions of three years. Substantial differences in the thermal stratification regime of the reservoir occurred in response to the documented changes in meteorological, operating, and light penetration conditions. The features of stratification that were affected included: the depth of the upper mixed layer, the average temperature of the epilimnion, the temperature gradient in the metalimnion, and the average temperature in the hypolimnion. 相似文献
723.
ABSTRACT: Although evidence of modern recharge in the North African and Arabian sedimentary basin aquifers exists, it is difficult to determine the volume of recharge. Also, from the evidence of regional groundwater gradients, the flow within the aquifers seems to be appreciably greater than one would intuitively expect. A hypotehtical model embodying the characteristics of the aquifers has been used to investigate the likely significance of various possible flow mechanisms. It is shown that while dewatering in the unconfined area can possibly contribute to flows for a considerable period of time, the maintenance of water levels in the unconfined zone must be the result of modern recharge. It is also shown that recharge depths of less than 10 mm per annum are sufficient given suitable aquifer parameters. Results for various combinations of aquifer parameters and configurations are given, including layered aquifers and the effects of restricted oufflows. Comparisons are made using a “bench mark” example. The work indicates that there is little point in carrying out conventional hydrological balance studies in hyper-arid areas and that, instead, more emphasis should be placed upon good groundwater hydrographic data and modeling. 相似文献
724.
Robert G. Bailey 《Environmental management》1988,12(1):11-17
As part of the planning process, maps of natural factors are often superimposed in order to identify areas which are suitable or unsuitable for a particular type of resource management. Overlay maps may also be used to identify analysis areas for predictive modeling of resource productivity and ecological response to management. Current interest in applying computer-assisted mapping technology to making overlay maps is drawing attention to geographic information systems for this purpose. The resultant maps, however, may be so inaccurate or unable to capture significant units of productivity and ecological response that they could lead to imperfect or false conclusions. Recommendations are made on how to proceed in light of these problems. 相似文献
725.
Fuzzy数学在人-机-环境系统工程研究中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
孙洪元 《中国安全科学学报》1995,5(6):33-33
综述了模糊数学在航天人机环境系统工程中的应用和发展。内容包括急性缺氧反应综合评定,人机系统中的控制模型,通风服研制和鉴定以及人体。心脏功能评价等研究领域中模糊数学的应用方法和作用。其研究方法对于一般人机工程的建模和分析具有积极意义。 相似文献
726.
按照校验费和损失费最小以及有效度最大的原则分别给出了安全监测系统校验的等周期模型。当安全监测系统的无故障工作时间服从威布尔分布时,给出了模型的解法。 相似文献
727.
本文由我们已往提出的三个地震模式讨论了1995年日本阪神大震(M7.2)的预报问题。这些模式是立交模式、组合模式和调制模式。此外还用柯里奥利力(Corrioli)的效应讨论了主震3年后最强余震的预报。 相似文献
728.
729.
ABSTRACT: The Hallett Quarry gravel pit lakes are an active sand and gravel extraction operation located 0.4 km north of the City of Ames, Iowa. During periods of drought, these lakes serve as a supplemental water supply for Ames. A modified version of the Vollenweider input-output model was used to predict future water quality under various watershed land use, drainage, and lake configurations. The dominant factor controlling the future water quality of the lakes was found to be the nutrient input. It is recommended that a management plan to protect the future water quality should be oriented towards reducing the sources of phosphorus to the lakes. 相似文献
730.
W. L. Nutter T. Tkacs P. B. Bush D. G. Neary 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1984,20(6):851-858
The breakpoint rainfall hydrology and pesticide options of the field scale model CREAMS (Chemicals, Runoff, and Erosion from Agricultural Management Systems) were used to predict average concentrations of hexazinone [3 cyclohexyl-6-(dimethyl-amino)-1-methyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4(1H,3H)-dione] in stormflow from four forested watersheds in the upper Piedmont region of Georgia. Predicted concentrations were compared with measured concentrations recorded over a 13-month period. CREAMS accurately predicted hexazinone concetrations in the initial stormflow events which also contained the highest concentrations. The model underestimated the hexazinone concentrations in stormflow two months and greater following pesticide application. In a companion study, the daily rainfall option of the CREAMS model was used to evaluate the reltive risk associated with the maximum expected concentration of hexazinone, bromacil (5-bromo-3 sec-butyl-6 methyuracil), picloram (4-amino-3,5,6 trichloropicolinic acid), dicamba (3,6-dichloro-0-anisic acid), and triclopyr {[(3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinyl)oxy] acetic acid} in stormflow from small forested watersheds. The model predicted the following order of potential residue appearance in stormflow: bromacil>triclopyr>hexazinone>picloram>dicamba. Subsurface movement of residues via interflow and deep leaching losses are not simulated by the version of CREAMS used in these studies. 相似文献