Fatality risk assessment and modeling of drivers responsibility for causing traffic accidents in Dubai

Introduction: This paper examines crash and safety statistics from the Emirate of Dubai in an attempt to identify factors responsible for making this population at greater risk of crashes compared to other countries. Problem: In developing countries such as the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), motor-vehicle-related mortalities frequently exceed those of the industrialized nations of North America and Europe. Method: Fatality and injury data used in the analysis mainly come from Dubai Emirate police reports and from other relevant international sources. Groups of the population are identified according to associated risk and exposure factors. Influence and strength of the most common risk factors are quantified using relative risk, the Lorenz curve, and the Gini index. Further analysis employed logit modeling, and possible predictors available in Dubai police reports, to estimate probability and odds ratios associated with drivers that are deemed responsible for causing traffic accidents. Results: Traffic fatality risk was found to be higher in Dubai, compared to some developed nations, and to vary considerably between different classes of road users and groups of the resident population. The likelihood of a driver causing an accident is considerably higher for those driving goods vehicles, but it is also associated with other factors. Impact: Results provide epidemiological inferences about traffic mortality and morbidity, and suggest priorities and appropriate measures for intervention, targeting resident population.     

USING CURVE NUMBERS TO DETERMINE BASELINE VALUES OF GREEN-AMPT EFFECTIVE HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITIES1

ABSTRACT: Since the trend in infiltration modeling is currently toward process-based approaches such as the Green-Ampt equation, more emphasis is being placed on methods of determining appropriate parameters for this approach. The SCS curve number method is an accepted and commonly used empirical approach for estimating surface runoff, and is based on numerous data from a variety of sources. The time and expense of calibrating process-based infiltration parameters to measured data are often prohibitive. This study uses curve number predictions of runoff to develop equations to estimate the “baseline” hydraulic conductivities (K_b) for use in the Green-Ampt equation. Curve number predictions of runoff were made for 43 soils. K_b values in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model were then calibrated so that the annual runoff predicted by WEPP was equal to the curve number predictions. These calibrated values were used to derive an equation that estimated K_b based on the percent sand, percent clay, and cation exchange capacity of the soil. Estimated values of K_b from this equation compared favorably with measured values and values calibrated to measured natural runoff plot data. WEPP predictions of runoff using both optimized and estimated values of K_b were compared to curve number predictions of runoff and the measured values. The WEPP predictions using the optimized values of K_b were the best in terms of both average error and model efficiency. WEPP predictions using estimated values of K_b were shown to be superior to predictions obtained from the curve number method. The runoff predictions all tended to be biased high for small events and low for larger events when compared to the measured data. Confidence intervals for runoff predictions on both an annual and event basis were also developed for the WEPP model.     

全球不同区域火山爆发与中国夏季旱涝的关系

根据近500年来火山活动和中国旱涝资料,研究了中国旱涝型和各主要地区旱涝指数与不同火山区和不同季节火山爆发的统计关系,探讨了1991年江淮洪涝与该年6月火山爆发的可能联系。发现不同区域火山爆发对中国不同地区的旱涝影响不同,有的甚至截然相反。由统计检验表明,分区研究比不分区研究其信度明显提高。     

EFFICIENTLY REDUCING NONPOINT PHOSPHORUS LOADS TO LAKES AND RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Several problems that make it difficult to deal with water pollution from cropland are identified. The most immediate need is for a rational framework for determining where conservation programs can make an impact on eutrophication problems in reservoirs draining rural watersheds. This includes estimating the level of control that would be required for each local farm situation and the economic impacts for the planning area. A modeling approach is suggested for a planning area in Southeastern Pennsylvania.     

USING LANDSAT DATA TO CLASSIFY LAND USE FOR ASSESSING THE BASINWIDE RUNOFF INDEX1

Remote sensing data in the form of Landsat computer compatible tapes (CCT) was used to determine land use and land cover as an aid in hydrologic studies that were used to estimated a basinwide runoff index. With the use of the General Electric Image 100 multispectral image processing system in conjunction with the Earth Resources Laboratory Application Software (ELAS), CCT's on February 9, 1976, were analyzed by spectral differences to determine unique land use conditions within the Econlockhatchee (Econ) River Basin, Florida. The result showed that the Landsat data can be successfully used to monitor the USGS land use Level 1. An advantage of using the Landsat data for land use classification is that new data are periodically available for updating the land use information. The Soil Conservation Service curve number was used to establish a basinwide runoff index which includes a prime variable of land use changes with the time. The basinwide runoff index in 1972 (with USGS 1972 Land Use maps) was similar to the one in 1976 (with Landsat data dated February 9, 1976). This implies that the runoff from the entire Econ Basin was not noticeably changed during the period of 1972 and 1976.     

基于网格化管理的“防灾型”高校社区管理模式构建

为确保高校社区安全管理的精准、高效、便捷,将社区网格化管理的理论和技术引入高校安全管理中,构建“防灾型”高校社区安全管理模式,结合“微安全”微信平台,链接社区全体人员。根据布拉德安全曲线,将“防灾型”高校社区安全管理模式定位在杜邦安全管理第三阶段;采用问卷调查的形式对管理效果进行考察。研究结果表明:事故发生率降低61.42%,事件处理效率提高74.05%,居民满意度达80.2%;“防灾型”网格社区安全管理模式能够对高校安全信息进行系统化管理,实现管理层与执行层的扁平化、联动管理;安全事故伤害率越来越低。     

在模拟酸性海洋大气环境中锌缓蚀剂的研制

目的寻找有效抑制锌大气腐蚀的缓蚀剂配方。方法采用静态失重法、极化曲线法和交流阻抗法,研究模拟酸性海洋大气环境中,多聚磷酸钠单独使用以及分别与香草醛、碘化钾、硫脲复配使用时对锌腐蚀的缓蚀作用。结果多聚磷酸钠单独使用时对腐蚀介质中的锌具有较好的缓蚀作用,多聚磷酸钠与香草醛、碘化钾、硫脲之间有良好的协同缓蚀效应,最佳质量配比分别为3∶1,1∶2,1∶4。多聚磷酸钠以及多聚磷酸钠复配缓蚀剂属于混合抑制型缓蚀剂;它们能够在锌表面形成一层保护膜,从而抑制锌的腐蚀。结论寻找到的缓蚀剂配方能够有效抑制锌的大气腐蚀。     

高地应力软岩隧道初期支护优化研究*

为研究边墙曲率、支护参数等因素对高地应力软岩隧道变形控制的效果,以大瑞铁路营盘山隧道为工程背景,结合现场监测数据,建立有限元模型,分析不同边墙矢跨比及初期支护参数对隧道变形的影响,借此得到合理的初期支护参数。结果表明:原有支护结构中“直边墙”对于隧道水平方向变形与压力抵抗能力较弱,当边墙曲率调整至0.12后,支护结构的受力和变形情况得到明显改善;初期支护参数中锚杆参数对于隧道变形控制效果较小,增强衬砌的强度可以有效控制隧道的变形;通过围岩-支护特征曲线对优化后的支护方案进行安全评价,发现其安全性能较之前显著增强,现场应用结果也表明支护结构并未出现破坏失稳现象,隧道变形得到有效控制。研究结果对类似工程变形控制及支护方案优化提供一定的参考依据。