TECHNIQUES FOR DETECTING TRENDS IN LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: With the advent of standards and criteria for water quality variables, there has been an increasing concern about the changes of these variables over time. Thus, sound statistical methods for determining the presence or absence of trends are needed. A Trend Detection Method is presented that provides: 1) Hypothesis Formulation - statement of the problem to be tested, 2) Data Preparation - selection of water quality variable and data, 3) Data Analysis - exploratory data analysis techniques, and 4) Statistical Tests - tests for detecting trends. The method is utilized in a stepwise fashion and is presented in a nonstatistical manner to allow use by those not well versed in statistical theory. While the emphasis herein is on lakes, the method may be adopted easily to other water bodies.     

A statistical F test for the natural attenuation of contaminants in groundwater

Natural attenuation (NA) is a catchall explanation for the overall decay and slowed movement of the contaminants in the subsurface. One direct support to NA is to demonstrate that contaminant concentrations from monitoring wells located near the source are decreasing over time. The decrease is summarily expressed in terms of an apparent half-life that is determinedfrom the line best fitting the observed log-transformed concentration data and time. This simple (time-only) decay modelassumes other factors are invariant, and so is flawed when complicating factors – such as a fluctuating water table – are present. A history of the water-table fluctuation can track changes in important NA factors like recharge, groundwater flow direction and velocity, as well as other non-NA factors like volume of water in and purged from the well before a sample is collected. When the trend in the concentrations is better associated with the water table rising or falling, any conclusionabout degradation rate may be premature. We develop simple regressions to predict contaminant concentration (c) by two line models: one involving time (c c(t)), and another involving groundwater elevation (c c(z)). We develop a third model that includesboth factors (c c(t, z)). Using an F-test to compare the fits to the models, we determine which modelis statistically better in explaining the observed concentrations. We applied the test to sites where benzene degradation rates had previously been estimated. The F-testcan be used to determine the suitability of applying non-parametric statistics, like the Mann-Kendall, to the concentration data, because the result from the F-test canindicate instability of the contaminant plume that may bemasked when the water table fluctuates.     

辽宁酷热日的天气气候分析

利用统计方法对辽宁1951-2003年的酷热天气进行了分析,发现辽宁的酷热天气主要出现在辽西地区;酷热天气在5-7月均可出现,主要集中在7月;无明显的年际变化.中纬度东-西高压带是造成辽宁酷热天气的主要天气形势;其次是西风带暖高压,在850hPa温度场上,辽宁西部在24℃暖中心之内有很好的指示意义.     

MODELING FLOOD DAMAGE: CASE OF TOKAI FLOOD 20001

ABSTRACT: In conventional flood damage reduction studies, flood damage is usually estimated with a damage function according to the depth of inundation. However, this method may not reflect the conditions of each family residing in the floodplain because it ignores not only the distribution of flood damage but also the effect of building characteristics and residents' preparedness. This paper uses data from a questionnaire based survey (N= 3,036) conducted 17 months after the Tokai Flood of 2000 that caused disastrous losses to household properties. It provides a conceptual “doughnut structure” model of flood damage to houses and house contents and a mathematical basis for models to explore the determinants of flood damage. Besides the inundation depth, house type significantly affects both the house structural and content damage probabilities, while house ownership and house structure affect house damage probability but not house content damage probability at a given depth. Inundation depth, residing period, and household income significantly affect both house and content damage values. In addition, house ownership has a significant impact on the house damage value, while house structure has an impact on content damage value.     

ANALYSIS OF STREAMFLOW TRENDS AND THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE IN PENNSYLVANIA, 1971 TO 20011

An understanding of temporal trends in total stream‐flow (TSF), base flow (BF), and storm runoff (RO) can help in the development of water management plans for watersheds and local communities. In this study, 47 streams across Pennsylvania that were unregulated and unaffected by karst environments or coal mining were studied for flow trends and their relationships to selected climate parameters for the period 1971 to 2001. LOWESS curves for annual flow showed that almost all of the selected streams in Pennsylvania had downward trends in total TSF, BF, and RO. Using a seasonal Mann‐Kendall analysis, downward trends were significant at an α= 0.05 level for 68, percent 70 percent, and 62 percent of the streams and at an α= 0.10 level for another 19, 17, and 13 percent of the streams for TSF, BF, and RO, respectively. The ratio of BF to TSF (RBS) had significant upward trends for 34 percent of the streams at an α= 0.05 level and for another 9 percent of the streams at an α= 0.10 level, indicating that TSF decreased relative to BF for more than 40 percent of the streams during the previous 30 years. Downward trends in TSF, BF, and RO were most common for the months of June, July, and December. Trend analyses using monthly and annual total precipitation and mean temperature showed some association between climate and the streamflow trends, but Spearman's correlation and partial Mann‐Kendall analyses revealed that the trends in TSF, BF, and RO could not be explained by trends in precipitation and temperature alone, and thus urbanization and development may have played a role.     

2002年11月-2003年2月国内安全事故数据

统计了2002年11—2003年2月国内发生的各种安全事故1050起，包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、毒物泄露和中毒、火灾及其他事故。统计表明，在这些事故中，矿业事故最多，占59．8％，平均每天5．2起事故，其次是交通事故(23．1％)、爆炸事故(5．6％)、其他事故(5．6％)、毒物泄露和中毒(3．1％)、火灾(2．7％)。1050起事故共死亡2733人，伤2248人，死亡人数的百分比分别为矿业事故43．O％、交通事故37．1％、其他事故7．2％、爆炸事故6．8％、火灾3．9％、泄露中毒1．9％；受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故63．7％、爆炸事故10．5％、矿业事故9．9％、泄露中毒6．9％、其他事故6．6％、火灾2．4％。章最后对2002年我国发生的一些事故进行了讨论。     

沂沭断裂带上跨断层定点水准高值变化分析

2001年8月,沂沐断裂带上的冯家坊子和相公庄定点水准测量在更换了DiNill数字水准仪后同时出现高值变化。本文计算了冯家坊子、相公庄水准2000～2002年1～7月高差中数的偶然中误差,利用t检验、f检验对不同年相同时间段的均值、方差进行了统计检验,并结合地下水位、降雨、温度、环境等因素从定量和定性两个方面分析了水准观测值与它们之间的关系;讨论了引起水准观测值出现显著变化的原因。结果表明:冯家坊子、相公庄水准出现的高值变化与更换了数字水准仪有关,而冯家坊子水准出现的高值变化还与温度、地下水位变化有关,相公庄水准SN向出现的高值变化还与周围环境干扰有关。     

我国地下水硝酸盐污染及源解析研究进展

我国地下水中硝酸盐污染问题严峻,尤其农业产区地下水硝酸盐污染日益突出,严重影响了地下饮用水安全,急需引起重视.通过综述发现,我国地下水中硝酸盐的主要来源为大气沉降、土壤氮、农业施肥和粪便污水等,其中粪便污水和农业施肥是地下水硝酸盐超标的主要原因.总结了水化学分析法、多元统计分析法、稳定同位素示踪法和微生物源追踪等技术在地下水硝酸盐溯源中的应用.各种溯源方法均有一定的局限性,建议采用多种方法联合识别地下水中硝酸盐来源,并通过多元统计分析和同位素定量解析模型计算不同污染来源贡献率.硝酸盐污染溯源经历了从定性到定量的研究过程,目前基于δ¹⁵N-NO₃ ^-和δ¹⁸O-NO₃ ^-解析硝酸盐来源的SIAR和MixSIAR模型已经相当成熟,但由于不同输入端元同位素特征值范围相互重叠,不同时空变化等条件下δ¹⁵N-NO₃ ^-和δ¹⁸O-NO₃ ^-值具有一定差异,以及氮迁移转化过程中的同位素分馏等的影响,导致模型计算得出的结果还存在不确定性,需要进一步优化模型的解析方法,以更精准地获取硝酸盐污染来源及其贡献率,服务于地下水资源的科学管理.     

2003-2008年河北省雷电灾害特征统计分析

雷电灾害是最严重的10种自然灾害之一,掌握雷电灾害的时空分布规律,对做好雷电防御工作具有重要的社会意义.根据2003-2008年河北省雷电灾害的统计结果,揭示了河北省雷电灾害的时空分布规律,并结合河北省实际情况,进一步分析了雷电灾害发生的可能原因,为全省防雷减灾工作提供参考.     

北京市典型道路交通噪声排放特征

采用北京市道路交通噪声自动监测系统2013—2017年采集的等效连续A声级数据,对城市快速路、城市主干线、城市次干线、城市支路的代表性站点噪声排放情况进行了统计分析,结果显示,北京市不同等级的道路噪声排放具备一定的特征,排放水平从大到小依次为城市快速路城市主干线城市支路和城市次干线,道路噪声随时间变化存在较为一致的周期性排放特征,24 h变化特征比较明显。个别道路排放特征存在特异性,如城市主干线道路的一个代表监测站点噪声监测值出现了逐年下降趋势,分析发现,北京市非首都功能疏解对其噪声值的下降有一定贡献。采取一定的规划和管理措施有助于减少道路交通噪声的排放。