Impact of Criticism of Null-Hypothesis Significance Testing on Statistical Reporting Practices in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Over the last decade, criticisms of null-hypothesis significance testing have grown dramatically, and several alternative practices, such as confidence intervals, information theoretic, and Bayesian methods, have been advocated. Have these calls for change had an impact on the statistical reporting practices in conservation biology? In 2000 and 2001, 92% of sampled articles in Conservation Biology and Biological Conservation reported results of null-hypothesis tests. In 2005 this figure dropped to 78%. There were corresponding increases in the use of confidence intervals, information theoretic, and Bayesian techniques. Of those articles reporting null-hypothesis testing—which still easily constitute the majority—very few report statistical power (8%) and many misinterpret statistical nonsignificance as evidence for no effect (63%). Overall, results of our survey show some improvements in statistical practice, but further efforts are clearly required to move the discipline toward improved practices.     

2001年12月-2002年2月国内安全事故数据

统计了2001年12月2002年2月国内发生的各种安全事故592起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故等.统计表明,在592起事故中,矿业事故最多,占51.1 4%,平均每天3起事故,其次是交通事故(19.9%)、爆炸事故(15.2%)、火灾(5.6%)、其他事故(4.6%)、毒物泄露和中毒(3.4%).592起事故共死亡1 526人,伤2 469人,死亡人数的百分比分别为矿业事故39.2%、交通事故36.8%、爆炸事故14.5%、火灾4.1%、其他事故3.7%、泄露中毒1.7%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故46.9%、爆炸事故18.2%、泄露中毒12.2%、其他事故11.8%、矿业事故8.6%、火灾2.2%.     

某型飞机典型结构危险部位地面停放预腐蚀影响系数曲线的试验测定

目的评定飞机日历寿命,测定飞机典型结构件的地面停放系数随日历年限的变化规律(C-T曲线)。方法针对典型飞机结构连接件,首先在实验室条件下采用加速腐蚀的预腐蚀试验及预腐蚀后的疲劳试验,得到不同加速当量腐蚀年限下的疲劳寿命,然后对疲劳试验数据进行统计及处理。结果最后拟合得到飞机典型结构件的地面停放系数随日历年限的变化规律曲线。结论通过C-T曲线可为某型飞机的定寿提供基础。     

泉州市街道灰尘中重金属来源分析

用ICP-MS测定了泉州市不同功能区街道灰尘中11种重金属元素(Cr、Fe、Mn、Ni、Cu、Zn、Cd、Sb、Pb、Bi、Co)的含量。结果表明,上述元素的平均含量均高于当地土壤背景值,尤以Zn、Cd、Sb、Pb富集较严重。多元统计分析(相关分析、因子分析、聚类分析)结果显示,泉州市街道灰尘中上述重金属来源可分为三大类:Cu、Pb、Sb、Cd、Bi主要来自机械加工和交通污染;Mn、Zn主要来自农药喷洒和生活污染;Fe、Cr、Ni、Co则主要来自钢铁工业污染和自然源。     

纺织行业生产、排污及治理现状的研究

纺织行业是中国国民经济的支柱产业和民生产业,在珠江三角洲城市经济中占据着重要的地位,对于促进经济增长,以及解决就业问题具有重要的意义.由于纺织设备和工艺水平限制等,纺织行业对环境影响也较大.通过调研珠三角一城市纺织行业56家重点企业,对行业的生产、排污现状及治理作了介绍,调研计算推测出排污结果,并与环境统计数据作对比,研究了该市纺织行业的排污现状和治理效果,为制定地区环境质量保障方案和科学地调整产业结构提供依据.     

全向辐照电磁环境构建及与BPSK系统的干扰效应研究

目的分析某型通信电台在工作时所处的复杂电磁环境,构建基于混响室原理的全向辐照电磁环境。方法以一个采用标准BPSK信号的数字通信系统为例,研究干扰信号码速、频率偏移量、信干比等参数对系统误码率的影响。结果当干扰信号码速低于期望信号码速时,随着频率偏移量的增加,接收系统误码率也随之减小,且呈现周期性规律;当信干比相同时,在相同的频率偏移下,干扰信号的码速越高,其干扰效果越好;当干扰信号码速高于期望信号码速时,随着干扰信号码速的进一步增大,干扰效果将呈现逐渐降低的趋势。结论该研究在电子装备的复杂电磁环境适应性方面做出了有益探索,为今后的复杂电磁环境适应性理论的深入研究提供了借鉴。     

自动监测设备比对监测合格率统计方法的探讨

参照污染源达标率统计方法,得出自动监测设备比对监测的合格率统计方法,并具体介绍了企业单个项目合格率统计方法、区域单个项目合格率统计方法和区域综合合格率统计方法。     

A MONTE CARLO TEST OF LOAD CALCULATION METHODS,LAKE TAHOE BASIN,CALIFORNIA‐NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: The sampling of streams and estimation of total loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment play an important role in efforts to control the eutrophication of Lake Tahoe. We used a Monte Carlo procedure to test the precision and bias of four methods of calculating total constituent loads for nitrate‐nitrogen, soluble reactive phosphorus, particulate phosphorus, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment in one major tributary of the lake. The methods tested were two forms of the Beale's Ratio Estimator, the Period Weighted Sample, and the Rating Curve. Intensive sampling in 1985 (a dry year) and 1986 (a wet year) provided a basis for estimating loads by the “worked record” method for comparison with estimates based on resampling actual data at the lower intensity that characterizes the present monitoring program. The results show that: (1) the Period Weighted Sample method was superior to the other methods for all constituents for 1985; and (2) for total phosphorus, particulate phosphorus, and suspended sediment, the Rating Curve gave the best results in 1986. Modification of the present sampling program and load calculation methods may be necessary to improve the precision and reduce the bias of estimates of total phosphorus loads in basin streams.     

铁矿周边地下水金属元素分布及健康风险评价

以崇左市红阳村、两岸村、亭乐村和孔甲村所在地为研究区域,对该区域内某铁矿周边30个地下水样品中12种金属元素（Hg、Mn、Fe、Al、Zn、Ni、As、Pb、Cr、Cd、Co、Cu）进行测定和分析,运用多元统计的方法和健康风险评价模型研究了地下水金属元素的分布特征及其引起的健康风险.结果表明,地下水中Zn和Fe平均浓度（250.32,103.96μg/L）较高,Hg、Mn、Fe、Al和Zn超过了《地下水质量标准》（GB/T 14848-2017）规定的Ⅲ类标准限值.Fe、Mn、Al高浓度主要分布在红阳村和亭乐村,Zn、Hg高浓度主要分布在红阳村和两岸村.多元统计分析表明,Fe、Mn、Al、Pb、As、Co元素主要来源于铁矿开采,Cu、Zn、Cr、Ni元素主要与铅锌矿的开采与区域地质背景有关,Hg主要来源于本底值及糖厂和造纸厂等企业污染,Cd主要来源于自然源.健康风险评价表明,两岸村地下水金属元素引起的健康总风险（8.82×10^-5a^-1）最高,儿童健康总风险大于成人,经饮水途径引起的健康风险比皮肤接触途径高2~3个数量级,Cr的致癌风险接近或高于最大可接受风险水平5.0×10^-5a^-1,非致癌风险水平在10^-14~10^-9a^-1,低于最大可接受风险水平4~9个数量级.     

A guide to representing variability and uncertainty in biodiversity indicators

Biodiversity indicators are used to inform decisions and measure progress toward global targets, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Indicators aggregate and simplify complex information, so underlying information influencing its reliability and interpretation (e.g., variability in data and uncertainty in indicator values) can be lost. Communicating uncertainty is necessary to ensure robust decisions and limit misinterpretations of trends, yet variability and uncertainty are rarely quantified in biodiversity indicators. We developed a guide to representing uncertainty and variability in biodiversity indicators. We considered the key purposes of biodiversity indicators and commonly used methods for representing uncertainty (standard error, bootstrap resampling, and jackknife resampling) and variability (quantiles, standard deviation, median absolute deviation, and mean absolute deviation) with intervals. Using 3 high-profile biodiversity indicators (Red List Index, Living Planet Index, and Ocean Health Index), we tested the use, suitability, and interpretation of each interval method based on the formulation and data types underpinning the indicators. The methods revealed vastly different information; indicator formula and data distribution affected the suitability of each interval method. Because the data underpinning each indicator were not normally distributed, methods relying on normality or symmetrical spread were unsuitable. Quantiles, bootstrapping, and jackknifing provided useful information about the underlying variability and uncertainty. We built a decision tree to inform selection of the appropriate interval method to represent uncertainty or variation in biodiversity indicators, depending on data type and objectives. Our guide supports transparent and effective communication of biodiversity indicator trends to facilitate accurate interpretation by decision makers.