Forecasting Daily Maximum Ozone Concentrations in the Athens Basin

In the work ozone data from the Liossion monitoring station of the Athens/PERPA network are analysed. Data cover the months May to September for the period 1987–93. Four statistical models, three multiple regression and one ARIMA (0,1,2), for the prediction of the daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentrations are developed. All models together, with a persistence forecast, are evaluated and compared with the 1993's data, not used in the models development. Validation statistics were used to assess the relative accuracy of models. Analysis, concerning the models' ability to forecast real ozone episodes, was also carried out. Two of the three regression models provide the most accurate forecasts. The ARIMA model had the worst performance, even lower than the persistence one. The forecast skill of a bivariate wind speed and persistence based regression model for ozone episode days was found to be quite satisfactory, with a detection rate of 73% and 60% for O3 >180 g m-3 and O3 >200 g m-3, respectively.     

Trends in Nitrogen Transport in Swedish Rivers

Concern about nitrogen loads in marine environments has drawn attention to the existence and possible causes of long-term trends in nitrogen transport in rivers. The present study was based on data from the Swedish environmental monitoring programme for surface water quality; the continuity of these data is internationally unique. A recently developed semiparametric method was employed to study the development of relationships between runoff and river transport of nitrogen since 1971; the observed relationships were then used to produce time series of flow-normalised transports for 66 sites in 39 river basins. Subsequent statistical analyses of flow-normalised data revealed only few significant downward trends (p 0.05) during the time period 1971–1994, and the most pronounced of these downward trends were caused by reduced point emissions of nitrogen. The number of significant upward trends was substantially larger (15 for total-N and 18 for NO₃-N). Closer examination of obtained results revealed the following: (i) the most pronounced upward trends were present downstream of lakes, and (ii) observed increases in nitrogen transport coincided in time and space with reduced point emissions of phosphorus or organic matter. This indicated that changes in the retention of nitrogen in lakes were responsible for the upward nitrogen trends. The hypothesis that nitrogen saturation of forest soils has caused a general increase in the riverine export of nitrogen from forested catchments in Sweden was not confirmed. Neither did the results indicate that improved agricultural practices have reduced the export of nitrogen from agricultural catchments.     

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: a modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

新时期我国农业灾害统计的改进

农业灾害统计是认识和分析农业灾害问题的主要环节，做好这一工作对于实现我国农业可持续发展具有重要意义。文章在分析我国农业灾害统计存在问题的基础上，指出在新时期为推进我国农业灾害统计工作，必须大力加强农业灾害统计指标体系的构建和统计规范性的建立，改进传统的农业灾害统计方法、流程，并完善农业灾害统计管理等工作。     

粤北某离子吸附型稀土矿山土壤和地表水重金属分布及风险评价

对粤北某离子吸附型稀土矿24个土壤样品中的As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Mn、Ni、Pb、Zn和Hg,以及15个地表水样品中的As、Cd、Cu、Hg、Mn、Pb和Zn进行了检测,并以多元统计分析与土壤潜在生态风险指数法、地表水健康风险评价模型相结合的方式,研究了重金属的分布特征及风险水平。结果表明:在土壤中,Mn、Zn、Cd和Pb的平均含量均超过了背景值;Mn、Cr、Ni、Cu、Cd和Zn在采区有较明显集聚,As、Pb和Hg的高含量分布相对均匀;Cr、Ni、Cu和Pb含量主要受区域背景影响,Zn、As、Cd和Hg含量与矿区人类活动关系密切,Mn含量受自然和人为因素共同控制;重金属造成的土壤潜在生态风险整体处于轻微水平,Ⅱ采区和Ⅶ采区生态风险较高;Cd和Hg是造成土壤生态危害的主要重金属元素。在地表水中,Mn的平均浓度超过了《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838-2002)规定的限值,其余重金属的含量均满足该标准中的Ⅲ类水质要求;重金属浓度在靠近采区及位于河流中下游的位置偏高;Mn、Cd、Pb、Zn和Cu浓度受稀土开采影响较大,As、Hg浓度主要受自然因素影响;重金属产生的健康总风险(9.39×10^-7~1.01×10^-6 a^-1)低于国际辐射防护委员会推荐的参考标准(5×10^-5 a^-1),但儿童通过饮水途径受到的健康风险(1.01×10^-6 a^-1)略超过部分机构的推荐限值;Cd和As是地表水中产生健康风险的主要重金属元素。综上,研究区重金属污染风险管理的主要对象是Cd和Mn。     

不同土壤中Zn有效态含量与全量关系的统计研究

以"全国重点区域土壤环境质量数据库"为数据源,依据pH值、有机质含量、阳离子交换量筛选出时间、空间分布不连续的3组402个土壤样品,对土壤中Zn有效态含量与全量的相关性进行了统计分析.结果表明,在pH值5.0～6.5、有机质含量1.0%～2.5%,pH值5.0～6.5、有机质含量2.5%～4.0%,pH值7.5～8.5、有机质含量1%～2.5%等3类土壤条件下(阳离子交换量均介于15～30cmol·kg-1),土壤中的Zn有效态含量与全量之间均存在显著的相关性,且均能在Zn有效态含量与全量之间建立起有意义的回归方程.     

随机数据相干函数谱的归纳处理方法研究

目的 研究相干函数谱的归纳处理方法,提高多点多轴振动试验对实际环境模拟的真实性.方法 通过对相干函数统计分布规律的分析,提出一种基于实测数据的制定相干函数谱的统计容差法,考虑到相干函数对试验量级影响的特殊性,没有采用传统的容差上限分析法,而是对相干函数的容差区间进行分析,并给出相干函数容差上限谱和容差下限谱的制定方法....     

战斗机阻力伞载荷计算研究

目的通过对战斗机阻力伞载荷计算开展研究,为阻力伞安装支持结构的静强度和疲劳强度分析提供支持。方法分别运用工程计算方法、流固耦合数值模拟方法,并对比阻力伞火箭滑车试验实测数据,对阻力伞载荷计算开展研究。同时基于飞参数据,运用统计学方法对影响阻力伞载荷大小和方向的开伞速度、飞机俯仰角、侧风速度与方向等参数进行统计分析,为载荷谱编制提供数据基础。结果确定阻力伞载荷工程计算方法中动载系数k取为1.2,将一次放伞的载荷历程简化为以拉直力和张满力为峰值的两个载荷循环,且拉直力为张满力的50%。以某型飞机766架起落飞参数据为基础,运用皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布、指数分布对开伞速度、飞机俯仰角、侧风速度与方向等参数进行拟合,结合阻力伞载荷计算方法,得出阻力伞载荷大小和方向分布的统计规律。结论明确了阻力伞载荷计算方法及计算相关参数选取,同时提出一种符合战斗机实际使用环境的阻力伞载荷谱编制方法。     

空气污染健康损失中统计生命价值评估研究

采用权变评价法(CVM)评估了我国空气污染健康损失中的统计生命价值,并分析了其影响因素.结果表明,我国空气污染健康损失中的统计生命价值约为100万元/a.区间值线性回归模型分析显示,年龄、受教育程度、人均年收入、健康和家庭规模等因素对统计生命价值均有显著影响,但是城市的不同对统计生命价值并没有显著影响.