ESTIMATING CENTRAL TENDENCY FROM UNCENSORED TRACE LEVEL MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe.     

苯甲（乙）腈类化合物理化参数的统计和筛选

本文对20个芳香腈化合物的理化参数作了统计分析,得到了乙腈基中—CH_2—基因的电子效应常数为0.2,建立了水解速率常数k与取代基电子效应常数σ的回归方程,pk=5.89,9—2.144σ(R=-0.957,n=20),根据各化合物的因子得分和实验设计方法为生物试验挑选出了5个有代表性的化合物。     

福建省台湾入境游客市场预测模型分析

随着海峡两岸旅游区的发展,对台湾旅游市场进行预测可以更好地帮助福建省制定对台旅游发展战略和市场开发模式。通过对目前较为实用的两种预测模式——回归分析和灰色预测进行分析比较得出指数模型在游客预测中的优越性,从而得出相应的预测模型。对未来几年游客量进行预测,从定量分析的角度对福建省开展对台旅游提出依据。     

Time series modelling of respiratory hospital admissions and geometrically weighted distributed lag effects from ambient particulate air pollution within Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

The distributed lag effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure on respiratory hospital admissions in Kathmandu Valley are modelled using daily time series data. The extended exposure to PM₁₀ is accounted for by assigning weights to daily average PM₁₀ which decline geometrically as the lag period increases in days. Results show that the percent increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospital admissions and respiratory admissions including COPD, asthma, pneumonia, and bronchitis per 10 μg/m³ rise in PM₁₀ are found to be 4.85% for 30 days lag effect, about 15.9% higher than that observed for same-day lag effect and 3.52% for 40 days lag effect, about 28.9% higher than the observed value for same-day lag effect, respectively.     

Labor market estimates of the senior discount for the value of statistical life

This article develops the first measures of age–industry job risks to examine the age variations in the value of statistical life. Because of the greater risk vulnerability of older workers, they face flatter wage-risk gradients than younger workers, which we show to be the case empirically. Accounting for this heterogeneity in hedonic market equilibria leads to estimates of the value of statistical life–age relationship that follows an inverted U shape. The estimates of the value of statistical life range from $6.4 million for younger workers to a peak of $9.0 million for those aged 35–44, and then a decline to $3.8 million for those aged 55–62. The decline of the estimated value of statistical life with age is consistent with there being some senior discount in the Clear Skies Initiative analysis.     

乌梁素海表层沉积物重金属与营养元素含量的统计分析

对乌梁素海表层沉积物营养盐与重金属的分布情况进行研究,应用SPSS统计分析软件对乌梁素海表层沉积物重金属与营养元素进行相关分析和因子分析,并对重金属元素进行聚类分析。营养元素与重金属间的相关分析表明：重金属元素Cu、Cr、Pb和Cd相互间具有极显著的正相关性;有机质与As和Hg呈极显著的正相关;总氮与Hg呈极显著相关,与As呈显著相关,而与Pb呈极显著负相关,与Cd呈显著负相关;总磷与As呈显著负相关。重金属元素间的R-型聚类分析结果将本论文研究的9种金属元素分为3类。采用主成分分析法对乌梁素海表层沉积物重金属与营养元素进行因子分析,得到4个因子,并进一步分析讨论了各主成分的科学内涵。     

Measurement Diagnostics by Analysis of Last Digits

Though measurement instruments and methods have their natural precision limits, long term monitoring, which is so importantfor environmental studies, requires to set up and maintaincertain standards regarding precision. The elementaryrequirement is to produce measurements with a prescribed numberof valid digits. If the technology further develops and allowsto increase the number of valid digits, the change should bedocumented. In this paper we discuss a simple procedure for validity assessment of the last digits of data in a data base.It may be useful for both calibration control of an instrumentas well as for preliminary data analysis in scientific studies.The procedure utilizes the assumption that, under normalconditions, the last digits of the observed data can usually beconsidered as uniformly distributed random numbers. Failures ordeliberate changes in the observation mechanism can be detectedif particular digits occur more frequently than the others. Thedecision about proper representations of the last digits is doneby means of the familiar chi-square statistics.     

芜湖市区土壤重金属污染评价及来源分析

对芜湖市区153个土壤样品中9种重金属的含量进行测定和评价,利用多元地统计方法进行污染来源分析。结果表明：芜湖市区土壤Zn、Fe、Mn、Cu、Pb、Co、Cd、Ni、Cr的平均含量分别为96.8、30600.1、466.1、35.0、29.1、16.7、1.2、26.3、78.3mg/kg;除Fe、Mn、Ni外,其他元素均高于相应土壤背景值,Zn、Cu、Pb、Co、Cd、Cr分别是背景值的1.26、1.09、1.17、1.20、6.11、1.29倍,说明这些元素出现了一定程度的积累。单因子评价结果表明Cd污染最为严重,Zn、Cu、Pb、Co和Cr为轻度污染,Fe、Mn和Ni没有污染。综合相关性、聚类及主成分分析可知,Fe和Mn为＂自然源因子＂,不同功能区分布主要受成土母质控制;Zn、Cu、Pb和Cd为＂交通及工业活动因子＂,Cu、Cd高值区均分布在开发区,Zn和Pb的高值区分布在镜湖区;Ni、Co和Cr为＂农业活动因子＂,其空间变异受成土母质及农业活动等因素影响。     

CNG加气站危险性分析及事故预防措施研究

本文首先研究提出了国内外CNG加气站的一般组成结构,即调压计量系统、净化干燥系统、气体压缩系统、压缩天然气储存系统、控制系统和售气系统6个子系统;接着对近几年发生的加气站事故进行统计与分析,指出了加气站易发生事故的关键部位一售气系统、高压储气系统和CNG压缩系统;然后对CNG加气站的常见危险有害因素进行了辨识与分析,即高压、易燃易爆、易泄漏、点火源众多等;最后根据辨识结果,研究提出了建设安全监控预警与事故应急综合管理系统等具体事故预防措施。     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.