Variability in Population Abundance and the Classification of Extinction Risk

Abstract: Classifying species according to their risk of extinction is a common practice and underpins much conservation activity. The reliability of such classifications rests on the accuracy of threat categorizations, but very little is known about the magnitude and types of errors that might be expected. The process of risk classification involves combining information from many sources, and understanding the quality of each source is critical to evaluating the overall status of the species. One common criterion used to classify extinction risk is a decline in abundance. Because abundance is a direct measure of conservation status, counts of individuals are generally the preferred method of evaluating whether populations are declining. Using the thresholds from criterion A of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List (critically endangered, decline in abundance of >80% over 10 years or 3 generations; endangered, decline in abundance of 50–80%; vulnerable, decline in abundance of 30–50%; least concern or near threatened, decline in abundance of 0–30%), we assessed 3 methods used to detect declines solely from estimates of abundance: use of just 2 estimates of abundance; use of linear regression on a time series of abundance; and use of state‐space models on a time series of abundance. We generated simulation data from empirical estimates of the typical variability in abundance and assessed the 3 methods for classification errors. The estimates of the proportion of falsely detected declines for linear regression and the state‐space models were low (maximum 3–14%), but 33–75% of small declines (30–50% over 15 years) were not detected. Ignoring uncertainty in estimates of abundance (with just 2 estimates of abundance) allowed more power to detect small declines (95%), but there was a high percentage (50%) of false detections. For all 3 methods, the proportion of declines estimated to be >80% was higher than the true proportion. Use of abundance data to detect species at risk of extinction may either fail to detect initial declines in abundance or have a high error rate.     

基于SPAMS探究南京市秋季大气中含草酸重金属颗粒的混合状态

草酸是大气环境中重要的二羧酸,可以与多种非吸湿性的多价金属形成草酸-金属络合物,并对生物健康和大气环境产生重要的影响. 众所周知,光化学反应可以促进草酸的形成. 然而,考虑到草酸与重金属（Heavy Metals, HMs）潜在的络合反应,草酸与HMs颗粒的混合态目前尚不完全清楚. 本研究利用单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪对南京市大气中含有草酸的HMs （Fe、Cu、Pb、Zn） 的粒径和化学组成进行了分析. 结果表明,与采样期间获得的整体颗粒相比（17.16%）,HMs中草酸的数分数（Number fractions, Nfs）更高（29.88%）. 草酸在各类HMs中的Nfs值分别为20.84% （Fe）、45.59% （Cu）、37.16% （Pb）、36.51% （Zn）. 此外,草酸与Cu （ r = 0.53 ）、Pb （ r = 0.55 ）和Zn （ r = 0.79 ）之间存在良好的相关性,这可能归因于它们在环境中可以形成草酸-重金属配合物. 值得注意的是,Fe与草酸在白天（r = 0.29）和夜间（r = 0.71）的相关性差异明显,这可能是因为Fe-草酸配合物在白天发生光解和Fe驱动的Fenton反应有关. 此外,气溶胶酸度（Relative acidity, Ra）和相对湿度（Relative humidity, RH）对形成草酸-重金属配合物也有影响. Ra的增强可能抑制草酸-重金属配合物的形成. 当RH > 70%时,RH增大可能促进草酸-重金属配合物的形成. 本研究为评估草酸在HMs中的增强提供了一些参考依据,同时提高了我们对大气环境中存在的草酸汇的认识.     

基于单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪的香河采暖季前后含铅颗粒物的组成特征研究

为了研究粒径在0.2?—?2.0μm的含铅颗粒物的化学组分和粒径分布特征,运用单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪(SPAMS)于2017年10月至2018年1月在河北省香河县开展观测活动.通过自适应神经网络算法(ART-2a)对含铅颗粒物进行命名、合并后,主要分为六类:富钾(Pb-K)、元素碳(Pb-EC)、有机碳元素碳(Pb-OCE...     

STATE FINANCING OF WATER PROJECTS: THE UTAH EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: Dramatic changes in Utah's economy caused by urbanization, large scale energy developments, and other influences will significantly reorient water use patterns. Thus, state water management policies and programs which have evolved over many years should be reevaluated. Several factors have influenced Utah water project financing policy. Among these have been: 1) the prominence of agriculture in the settlement of Utah and the century following, 2) dry cycles and periodic severe droughts, 3) recurring periods of economic depression, and 4) allocation of Colorado River water among the basin states and Mexico, Three revolving funds have been established. The Revolving Construction Fund, created in 1947, provides money for irrigation projects; the Cities Water Loan Fund, created in 1975, provides money to communities for developing culinary systems and improving quality to meet the demands of exploding population growth; and the Water Resources Conservation and Development Fund, created in 1978, provides money for large scale multipurpose water projects costing $1 million or more. The justification for these financing programs seems to be a mixture of rectifying market imperfections and income redistribution. However, trends in the agricultural sector and the multipurpose nature of large scale projects now being funded suggest that earlier justifications may no longer be valid. Rigorous project evaluation procedures, lacking in the past, should be adopted.     

Estimation and comparison of night-time OH levels in the UK urban atmosphere using two different analysis methods

Night-time OH levels have been determined for UK urban surface environments using two methods,the decay and steady state approximation methods.Measurement data from the UK National Environmental Technology Centre archive for four urban sites(Bristol,Harwell,London Eltham and Edinburgh) over the time period of 1996 to 2000 have been used in this study.Three reactive alkenes,namely isoprene,1,3-butadiene and trans-2-pentene were chosen for the calculation of OH levels by the decay method.Hourly measurements o...     

重量法和冷凝法测量烟气含湿量计算公式的改进

本文对现有文献中用重量法和冷凝法测量烟气含湿量的计算公式进行了改进，使改进后的公式更准确、适用。     

中国新时代自然资源治理体系的理论构想

基于生态文明、高质量发展和国家治理新时代的战略需求,以及国内外自然资源治理发展趋势,对中国新时代自然资源治理的指导思想、基本理念、理论体系、基本原则和目标体系等进行系统解析,对包括调查勘查评估、统计监测核算、开发利用治理、保护修复治理、保障储备治理、市场交易治理、安全预警治理和国际合作治理等在内的中国新时代自然资源治理框架体系进行系统刻画,对包括公平正义制度、资产产权制度、节约集约制度、有偿使用制度、保护修复制度、市场交易制度、统计核算制度、多元储备制度、国际合作制度和治理监督制度在内的中国特色自然资源治理制度体系进行系统解构。研究结论与观点对于提高中国自然资源治理体系与能力现代化建设水平具有重要参考价值。     

室内颗粒物的稳态置换流净化机制

对室内颗粒物输运扩散进行了机理上的探讨.用时间空间尺度分析方法,把颗粒物通量分解为宏观平均运动δ尺度的平移滑移,湍流运动的η微尺度的湍流扩散,以及分子运动λ尺度的布朗运动4部分,得到颗粒物通量的系综平均表达式及模式计算表达式,并以此分析总结出提高室内颗粒物净化效率的方法,即低流速及低湍流度梯度.采用数值计算比较了稳态置换流与常规点状上进风上排风形成流场的区别,通过现场实测比较了不同方式安装稳态置换流装置的2个房间的颗粒物数浓度随时间变化,提出并应用剂量加权净化效率对净化效果进行了比较.结果表明,稳态置换流的维持弱正压、线状斜对边进排气口布局、低流速及低湍流度等做法能有效提高净化效率并降低能耗.     

南京冬夏硫酸盐和硝酸盐对黑碳混合态的影响

采用单颗粒黑碳光度计（SP2）结合MARGA在线分析仪对南京地区冬季和夏季黑碳（BC）的质量浓度,以及硫酸盐,硝酸盐对其混合状态的影响进行了研究.结果表明,冬季和夏季南京地区BC质量浓度分别在1.01~14.5μg/m³和0.20~3.81μg/m³之间,均值分别为（4.39±2.66）μg/m³和（1.67±0.76）μg/m³,均呈现早晚高值的双峰型日变化特征.运用相对包裹层厚度D_p/D_c表示BC混合状态,冬季和夏季D_p/D_c分别在1.39~2.34和1.03~1.45之间,均值分别（1.81±0.21）和（1.24±0.08）,D_p/D_c日变化特征与BC相反,冬季D_p/D_c日变化幅度较大.冬季D_p/D_c与SO₄^2-和NO₃^-的相关性较好,D_p/D_c与NO₃^-的相关性高于其与SO₄^2-的相关性,夏季则相反.冬季清洁时期BC以本地源排放为主,其混合状态受硫酸盐和硝酸盐影响较高,冬季重污染时期,受排放源以及区域传输的影响,D_p/D_c与SO₄^2-和NO₃^-的相关性较低.     

北京市远郊冬季铵盐颗粒物的单颗粒质谱研究

2016年冬季使用单颗粒气溶胶质谱仪（SPAMS）于在北京市平谷区西柏店村进行大气颗粒物的在线观测.以m/z18[NH₄]⁺为特征离子提取含铵盐颗粒物,分析其时间变化特征、粒径分布、化学组分、混合状态和可能来源.含铵盐颗粒物约占观测期间所有颗粒物的31%,分为NH₄-OC（49.9%）,NH₄-EC（5.6%）,NH₄-ECOC（8.9%）,NH₄-HOC（1.4%）,NH₄-K（9.3%）,NH₄-NaK（21.7%）和NH₄-FeK（2.5%）7种主要类别.铵盐主要以硫酸铵、硫酸氢铵和硝酸铵的形态存在,且更易于和含碳类物质发生内混.煤炭和生物质燃烧是铵盐颗粒物的主要来源.后向轨迹分析表明,清洁期气团主要来自采样点北方和西北方的长距离传输,灰霾期气团主要来自西北向的区域传输.潜在源贡献因子分析（PSCF）表明含铵盐颗粒物主要来自本地和周边区域的排放,以及西北方向的长距离传输.