Regression models for octanol‐water partition coefficients,and for bioconcentration in fish

Octanol‐water partition coefficients (P) of a number of organochlorine insecticides (OCs) are presented. The merits of log‐log regressions between experimental ? values and calculated estimates of P, solute activity coefficients in water, solute molecular surface area data, and reversed‐phase liquid‐chromatographic net retention data, are critically evaluated for several classes of pollutants: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), chlorinated benzenes, chlorinated biphenyls and OCs. Special attention is paid to the predictive accuracy of such semi‐empirical regressions in connection with possible effects of solute molecular shape and polarity.

Finally, bioconcentration and ‐accumulation of hydrophobic pollutants in fish are briefly discussed.     

太湖叶绿素a浓度分布的时空特征及其影响因素

基于2005—2009年20次太湖采样期间的水质监测数据,研究了太湖叶绿素a浓度的主要分布特征,分析了水环境因子对叶绿素a浓度分布的季节性和空间性影响.结果表明,太湖叶绿素a浓度分布的空间差异较大,主要表现为梅梁湾、竺山湾、太湖西部和西南部湖区为叶绿素a浓度距平经验正交分解(EOF)第一模态空间分布的显著正值区,太湖湖心和东南湖区则为负值区;影响叶绿素a浓度的因子有水温、溶解氧、总氮、磷酸根和总磷,但总磷和水温的影响相对更为显著,而各季节叶绿素a浓度的影响因子则略有差异;影响藻类生长的因子存在较大的空间分布差异,但总磷、水温和溶解氧是其主要限制性因子,氮类营养盐的影响则处于次要地位.     

辽西风积土路基振陷研究及数值模拟

随着铁路车辆轴重增大、速度提高以及行车密度加大,长期行车必然使路基产生较大的累积塑性变形,因此对路基振陷的进一步研究已刻不容缓。本文主要以辽西高速铁路沿线的风积土路基为研究对象,取其原状土,通过室内常规土工试验获取风积土的基本物理和力学参数;根据试验结果,对风积土在长持时动荷载下的振陷量进行回归分析,进而得出预测振陷的方法;基于MIDAS软件,进行风积土路基在列车振动荷载下的振陷的数值模拟,根据模拟过程中参数的调整,得出风积土路基振陷量随参数的变化关系;最后,提出针对风积土路基抗振设计和隔振措施,进而得到用于指导风积土路基抗振和隔振措施的统一设计方法。     

Inferring extinction of mammals from sighting records, threats, and biological traits

For species with five or more sightings, quantitative techniques exist to test whether a species is extinct on the basis of distribution of sightings. However, 70% of purportedly extinct mammals are known from fewer than five sightings, and such models do not include some important indicators of the likelihood of extinction such as threats, biological traits, search effort, and demography. Previously, we developed a quantitative method that we based on species' traits in which we used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate the probability of rediscovery of species regarded as extinct. Here, we used two versions of the Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction in purportedly extinct mammals and compared the results of these two models with those of stationary Poisson, nonparametric, and Weibull sighting-distribution models. For mammals with five or more sightings, the stationary Poisson model categorized all but two critically endangered (flagged as possibly extinct) species in our data set as extinct, and results with this model were consistent with current categories of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. The scores of probability of rediscovery for individual species in one version of our Cox regression model were correlated with scores assigned by the stationary Poisson model. Thus, we used this Cox regression model to determine the probability of extinction of mammals with sparse records. On the basis of the Cox regression model, the most likely mammals to be rediscovered were the Montane monkey-faced bat (Pteralopex pulchra), Armenian myotis (Myotis hajastanicus), Alcorn's pocket gopher (Pappogeomys alcorni), and Wimmer's shrew (Crocidura wimmeri). The Cox model categorized two species that have recently disappeared as extinct: the baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and the Christmas Island pipistrelle (Pipistrellus murrayi). Our new method can be used to test whether species with few records or recent last-sighting dates are likely to be extinct.     

阳澄湖水源中典型嗅味物质测定与来源分析

以阳澄湖水源为研究对象,采用固相微萃取-气质联用法测定水中2-甲基异莰醇(2-MIB)、土臭素(GSM)、2,4,6-三氯苯甲醚(2,4,6-TAC)、2,3,4-三氯苯甲醚(2,3,4-TAC)、2,3,6-三氯苯甲醚(2,3,6-TAC)、2-异丙基-3甲氧基吡嗪(IPMP)、2-异丁基-3甲氧基吡嗪(IBMP)、β-环柠檬醛、β-紫罗兰酮、异氟尔酮等10种典型嗅味物质,并分析可能的来源藻类.以2018年1月-12月阳澄湖水源中优势藻种为基础,建立以上述嗅味物质为变量的多元线性回归模型.结果表明,水源中2-MIB、GSM、β-环柠檬醛、β-紫罗兰酮、异氟尔酮5种嗅味物质与直链藻、针杆藻、鱼腥藻、色球藻、颤藻、微囊藻、束丝藻7种藻类有较强的相关性.     

基于Box Behnken设计的煤导热系数分析与预测

为研究分析水分、固定碳及密度3个因素对煤导热系数的影响,选取多个矿井不同煤质的煤作为实验煤样,使用NETZSCH LFA457型激光导热系数测试仪进行测定,并引入二次响应曲面试验设计思想,采用Design Expert软件进行煤质指标的Box Behnken试验设计,按设计表筛选实验数据,构建了导热系数多因素、多水平影响下二次回归响应曲面模型,并对不同采样地点的煤导热系数进行了分析与预测。结果表明:二次回归方程P值小于0.000 1,极显著,失拟项为0.072 4,不显著,回归方程具有统计学意义;当水分在0.9%~10.9%,固定碳在49.3%~83.6%,密度在1.2~1.92 g·cm³之间,对煤的导热系数一次项影响程度为密度>固定碳>水分;二次项影响程度为固定碳和密度>水分和密度>水分和固定碳,且固定碳和密度之间存在交互作用,水分和密度、水分和固定碳之间无交互作用;应用响应曲面模型预测的煤导热系数误差为4.3%,满足精度要求。     

中国暖季近地面臭氧浓度空间格局演变及主要气象驱动因素

中国的近地面臭氧（O₃）浓度在2015~2018年间持续升高,已成为仅次于颗粒物的重要大气污染物.基于中国337个城市2015~2018年暖季（4~9月）的实时O₃浓度数据和气象数据,利用趋势分析、空间自相关、热点分析和多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）,研究了2015~2018年中国暖季地表O₃浓度的空间演变格局,探讨了气象因素对其驱动的空间差异性.结果表明：①中国暖季O₃浓度整体呈显著升高趋势（P<0.05）,平均升高速率为0.28 μg·（m³·a）^-1,其中超过55%的城市O₃浓度每年升高0.50 μg·m^-3;②O₃浓度存在明显的区域差异,高值区（平均浓度>60 μg·m^-3）分布在华东、华北、华中和西北部分地区;低值区（平均浓度<20 μg·m^-3）分布在华南和西南地区;③O₃浓度变化趋势在空间上存在位于华东、华北、西北以及华中地区的热点区域和位于西南、华南（广西）以及东北地区的冷点区域;④气温是中国暖季O₃变化的主要气象驱动因素,其对华北、西北和东北地区O₃浓度的影响显著高于其他地区;除广西、云南和江西部分地区外,O₃浓度与气温呈显著正相关;O₃浓度在华南、华东和华中大部分地区与风速呈显著负相关,O₃浓度在华北和东北部分地区与风速呈显著正相关;除辽宁、山东、河北、甘肃、广东及西南部分地区外,O₃浓度与云层覆盖度呈显著负相关;除西北和西南部分地区外,O₃浓度与降水呈显著负相关.     

千河下游水体-沉积物重金属空间分布、风险及影响因素

为了研究千河下游水体-沉积物重金属污染特征、风险程度及其影响因素,采集千河下游表层沉积物19份及水样20份,使用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪（ICP-MS）测定8种重金属（As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Mn、Ni、Pb和Zn）含量,分析了水体中重金属含量和健康风险,对沉积物重金属空间分布及污染特征进行探析,以DEM、气温和降水等11种因子为自变量,结合地理探测器和地理加权回归模型对沉积物重金属污染影响因素进行空间分异探究.结果表明,千河下游8种水体重金属浓度均未超过地表水环境质量标准Ⅱ类水体标准,其中Pb元素变异系数为3.11,浓度高值区主要集中于东岭冶炼公司和凤翔火车站周围.水体成人致癌物R^c均值为7.72E-06,呈较轻风险程度,儿童致癌物R^c均值为1.17E-04,呈强风险程度,成人与儿童非致癌物风险均为可承受风险程度,儿童R_总的高值主要集中在凤翔火车站周边,呈较强风险程度;千河下游沉积物重金属除As和Mn外,其余6种元素均超过陕西省土壤背景值,其中Cd元素含量均值为1.12 mg ·kg^-1,是陕西省土壤背景值的12倍,Cd、Zn和Pb污染较严重,主要分布在长青村、南湾村地区、牛家滩村、高庄和东岭冶炼公司周围;研究区沉积物重金属PLI_zone为1.71,属于轻度污染;DEM、温度和降水是沉积物重金属PLI空间格局的主要自然影响因素,其交互作用均为非线性增强,对沉积物重金属空间污染扩散起到一定驱动作用.     

A heuristic approach to predicting water beetle diversity in temporary and fluctuating waters

An understanding of the causal mechanisms and processes that shape macroinvertebrate communities at a local scale has important implications for the management and conservation of freshwater biodiversity. Here we compare the performance of linear and non-linear statistics to explore diversity-environment relationships using data from 76 temporary and fluctuating ponds in two regions of southern England. We focus on aquatic beetle assemblages, which have been shown to be excellent surrogates of wider freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity. Ponds in the region contained a rich coleopteran fauna, totaling 68 species, which provided an excellent model system with which to compare the performance of two non-linear procedures (artificial neural networks—ANNs and generalised additive models—GAMs) and one more traditional linear approach (Multiple linear regression—MLR) to modelling diversity-environment relationships. Of all approaches employed, the best fit was obtained using an ANN model with only four input variables (conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth). This model accounted for 82% of the observed variability in Shannon diversity index across ponds. In contrast, the best GAM and MLR models only explained 50% and 14% of this variation, respectively. Contribution profile analysis of conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth, obtained from the best fit ANN through a hierarchical cluster analysis, allowed the identification of direct and proxy effects in relation to the environmental variables measured in this study. In each case, distinct clusters of ponds were identified in contribution profile analysis, suggesting that ponds across the two regions fall into a number of discrete groups, whose beetle faunas respond in subtly yet significantly different ways to key environmental variables. Aquatic coleopteran diversity in ponds in the two regions appears to be driven at a local scale by changes in relatively few physicochemical gradients, which are related to diversity in a clearly non-linear manner.     

2种除草剂联合胁迫下日本青鳉的逐级行为响应(The Stepwise Behavioral Responses of the Japanese Medaka under the Joint Stress of Two Herbicides)

探讨了日本青鳉在两种除草剂阿特拉津和百草枯联合暴露下的逐级行为响应,采用水质安全在线生物预警系统(BEWs)记录行为强度数据,分析不同暴露浓度、不同暴露时间日本青鳉的行为响应.10、5、1和0.1TU的暴露浓度下行为反应时间分别为:0.74、7.7、29.4和42.2h,而每个浓度不同配比之间行为反应时间差异明显.结果表明:在两种除草剂的暴露下,日本青鳉的逐级行为响应既受化合物浓度高低的影响,又受暴露时间的影响,而且每个浓度两种药物不同配比暴露下的青鳉鱼的逐级行为响应基本一致,每个浓度不同配比之间行为反应时间差异明显,即两种作用机制不同的除草剂对日本青鳉的行为毒性是协同作用.