Effects of tour boats on dolphin activity examined with sensitivity analysis of Markov chains

In Patagonia, Argentina, watching dolphins, especially dusky dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obscurus), is a new tourist activity. Feeding time decreases and time to return to feeding after feeding is abandoned and time it takes a group of dolphins to feed increase in the presence of boats. Such effects on feeding behavior may exert energetic costs on dolphins and thus reduce an individual's survival and reproductive capacity or maybe associated with shifts in distribution. We sought to predict which behavioral changes modify the activity pattern of dolphins the most. We modeled behavioral sequences of dusky dolphins with Markov chains. We calculated transition probabilities from one activity to another and arranged them in a stochastic matrix model. The proportion of time dolphins dedicated to a given activity (activity budget) and the time it took a dolphin to resume that activity after it had been abandoned (recurrence time) were calculated. We used a sensitivity analysis of Markov chains to calculate the sensitivity of the time budget and the activity-resumption time to changes in behavioral transition probabilities. Feeding-time budget was most sensitive to changes in the probability of dolphins switching from traveling to feeding behavior and of maintaining feeding behavior. Thus, an increase in these probabilities would be associated with the largest reduction in the time dedicated to feeding. A reduction in the probability of changing from traveling to feeding would also be associated with the largest increases in the time it takes dolphins to resume feeding. To approach dolphins when they are traveling would not affect behavior less because presence of the boat may keep dolphins from returning to feeding. Our results may help operators of dolphin-watching vessels minimize negative effects on dolphins.     

Purification and characterization of Al13 species in coagulant polyaluminum chloride

Nano-Al₁₃ was separated and purified by four methods to investigate its characteristic, and was analyzed by Al-Ferron timed complexation spectrophotometer,²⁷ Al-NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Coagulation efficiency of nano-Al₁₃, polyaluminum chloride (PAC), and AlCl₃ in synthetic water were also investigated by jar test. The dynamic process and aggregation state of kaolin suspensions coagulating with nano-Al₁₃, PAC, and AlCl₃ were also investigated. The experimental results indicated that the efficiency of gel column chromatography method was the highest for separating PAC solution with low Al concentration. Ethanol and acetone method was simple and could separated PAC solution with different Al concentrations, while silicon alkylation white block column chromatography method could separate PAC solution only with low Al concentration. The SO₄²−/Ba²⁺ displacement method could separate PAC solution with high Al concentration, but extra inorganic cation and anion could be introduced into the solution during the separation. The coagulation efficiency and dynamic experimental results showed that nano- Al₁₃ with a high positive-charged species was the main species of electric neutralization in coagulation process, and it could reduce the turbidity and increase the effective particles collision rate efficiently in coagulation process. Its coagulation speed and the particle size of coagulant formed were of greatest value in this study.     

农业灌溉用水效率及其影响因素实证分析——基于随机前沿生产函数和新疆棉农调研数据

水资源是21 世纪的战略资源,提高农业部门水资源利用效率是水资源严重短缺的中国可持续发展的必然要求。论文利用“一步法”随机前沿生产函数模型评估了新疆地区806 户棉农的棉花生产技术效率及其影响因素,在此基础上采用单要素效率测算方法,借助Tobit 模型,考察棉花灌溉用水效率分布及其影响因素。研究结果表明：①新疆地区棉花技术效率与灌溉用水效率分别为0.85 和0.74,并且两种效率之间具有较高的相关性;②汉族农户以及采用滴灌技术和兵团经营方式的农户具有更高的技术效率与灌溉用水效率,而采用套种方式的农户两种效率较低;③棉花技术培训、每块土地规模的扩大有利于农户技术效率与灌溉用水效率的提高;④灌溉用水价格的提高有利于灌溉用水效率的提高。     

随机桁架结构可靠性分析的完全概率方法

提出了一种求解随机参数桁架结构在随机荷载作用下反应的概率密度函数和结构精确可靠度的方法.通过对随机参数桁架结构在随机荷载作用下的有限元分析方法的研究,考虑了结构的物理参数,构件的几何尺寸和作用荷载幅值等的随机性.应用随机向量函数的概率分布函数表达式,通过确定积分区间、变量替换、交换积分顺序等一系列数学上的处理,获得所求结构反应的概率密度函数.由干涉理论得到了结构位移和应力的可靠度.通过算例的结果与Monte-Carlo模拟法结果比较,表明该方法具有较高的精度及良好的实用性.     

“A Kiss Here and a Kiss There”: Conflict and Collaboration in Environmental Partnerships

Multistakeholder collaboration in the environmental realm has been increasing steadily over the past decade. This trend is responding to several stimuli, including dissatisfaction with current regulatory regimes, a liberal economic climate emphasizing global competitiveness and short-term returns, and the growing roles of the business and nongovernmental organization sectors in the environmental policy arena. This paper grows out of ethnographic research conducted between 1994 and 1998 with four environmental partnerships in Europe and the United States. The research found all of these partnerships to be marked by practices of conflict minimization and diffusion. Drawing upon illustrative data from one of these case studies, a European Union level initiative aimed at enabling sustainable development in Europe, the paper asks why this was the case, especially given the diverse political and economic interests at stake and the history of contentious relations between the sectors in other venues. Employing a theoretical perspective highlighting the sociohistoric factors involved in these processes, the paper suggests that this proclivity toward nonconfrontational behavior stems in part from two sources: a prominent cultural model that conceptualizes the partnership process as fundamentally nonconflictual in nature, and the promotion of the discourse of ecological modernization over other competing discourses. The paper explores some of the implications of this finding and concludes that environmental partnerships characterized by such nonconfrontational practices risk inadvertently encouraging the delegitimization of conflictual approaches to environmental action and engendering a retreat from radical thinking and innovative environmental solutions.     

SEDIMENT TRANSPORT AND CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY OF SMALL,FORESTED STREAMS1

This paper reviews sediment transport and channel morphology in small, forested streams in the Pacific Northwest region of North America to assess current knowledge of channel stability and morphology relevant to riparian management practices around small streams. Small channels are defined as ones in which morphology and hydraulics may be significantly influenced by individual clasts or wood materials in the channel. Such channels are headwater channels in close proximity to sediment sources, so they reflect a mix of hillslope and channel processes. Sediment inputs are derived directly from adjacent hillslopes and from the channel banks. Morphologically significant sediments move mainly as bed load, mainly at low intensity, and there is no standard method for measurement. The larger clastic and woody elements in the channel form persistent structures that trap significant volumes of sediment, reducing sediment transport in the short term and substantially increasing channel stability. The presence of such structures makes modeling of sediment flux in these channels — a potential substitute for measurement — difficult. Channel morphology is discussed, with some emphasis on wood related features. The problem of classifying small channels is reviewed, and it is recognized that useful classifications are purpose oriented. Reach scale and channel unit scale morphologies are categorized. A “disturbance cascade” is introduced to focus attention on sediment transfers through the slope channel system and to identify management practices that affect sediment dynamics and consequent channel morphology. Gaps in knowledge, errors, and uncertainties have been identified for future research.     

INDEXED SEQUENTIAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR HYDROPOWER CAPACITY ESTIMATION1

ABSTRACT: The indexed sequential hydrologic modeling (ISM) methodology is utilized by the Western Area Power Administration as the basis for risk-based estimation of project-dependable hydropower capacity for several federally owned/operated projects. ISM is a technique based on synthetic generation of a series of overlapping short-term inflow sequences obtained directly from the historical record. The validity of ISM is assessed through application to the complex multireservoir hydropower system of the Colorado River basin for providing risk estimates associated with determination of reliable hydrogeneration capacity. Performance of ISM is compared with results from stochastically generated streamflow input data to the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). Statistical analysis and comparison of results are based on monthly power capacity, energy generation, and downstream water deliveries. Results indicate that outputs generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with those obtained from stochastically generated hydrologic data for the Colorado River Basin.     

MORPHOLOGIC RESPONSE OF SUBALPINE STREAMS TO TRANSBASIN FLOW DIVERSION1

ABSTRACT: Flow has been diverted from Rocky Mountain streams for many years with little documentation of the impacts on physical form and biological function of the losing stream system. This study addresses whether differences in form can be detected in subalpine step-pool, plane bed, or pool-riffle channels and linked to changes in flow regime from diversion. Total annual discharge was reduced between 20 and 60 percent and average annual peak flow was reduced up to 45 percent in the subalpine systems assessed; channels were diverted between 20 and 100 years. Expected impacts include reduced conveyance and changes in vegetation growth patterns because formerly active surfaces are colonized by riparian species, effectuating shrinking channel capacity. In this study, reduced channel width is used as an indicator of morphologic response. Observed reductions in width, ranging from 35 to 50 percent at some sites, resulted not only from vegetation invasion of stable surfaces but also from the development of an inset beside former cut banks. This observation, however, was restricted to wider pool-riffle channels with gravel bars. Outside of these areas, morphologic changes were either subtle or absent. The absence of widespread response is attributed primarily to periodic “flooding” of the diverted channel. During wetter-than-average years when excess water is available, minimal flow is diverted and the hydrograph resembles a free-flowing regime. The release of high flow to the natural channel potentially offsets changes in form incurred during “dry” periods. The stable nature and structure of subalpine channels also contributes to the absence of reduced capacity.     

SENSITWITY OF IRRIGATION DEMAND IN A HUMID-TEMPERATE REGION TO HYPOTHETICAL CLIMATIC CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: An irrigation model based on a modified Thornthwaite water balance was used to simulate the effects of various hypothetical climatic changes on annual irrigation demand in a humidtemperate climate. The climatic-change scenarios consisted of combinations of changes in temperature, precipitation, and stomatal resistance of plants to transpiration. The objectives were to (1) examine the effects of long-term changes in these components of climatic change on annual irrigation demand, and (2) identify which of these factors would cause the largest changes in annual irrigation demand. Hypothetical climatic changes that only included increases in temperature and changes in precipitation resulted in increased annual irrigation demand, even with a 20 percent increase in precipitation. The model results showed that, for the ranges of changes in temperature and precipitation used in this study, changes in irrigation demand were more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation. Model results also indicated that increased stomatal resistance to transpiration counteracted the effects of increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation on irrigation demand. Changes in irrigation demand were even more sensitive to changes in stomatal resistance than to changes in temperature. A large amount of uncertainty is associated with predictions of future climatic conditions; however, uncertainty associated with natural climatic variability may be larger and may mask the effects of climatic change on irrigation demand.     

AN OBJECTWE TEST FOR HYDROLOGIC SCALE1

ABSTRACT: Improving the reliability of parametric hydrologic models (sometimes called cenceptual rainfall-runoff models) in the continuous simulation of runoff from ungaged catchments has been frustrated by difficulties in estimating model parameters from catchment characteristics. An underlying problem is that these models use parameters to represent catchments as a whole, whereas data on catchment characteristics are collected at multiple field locations and are difficult to transform into one measure of collective impact. Subdividing the catchment and calibrating a stochastic parametric model to estimate distributions for the parameters that covered the range of observed streamflow values was found to improve the simulations. This paper presents an optimization of the amount of subdivision to use in simulation with a version of the Stanford Watershed Model using available climatological data. The calibration process assumes that catchment heterogeneity introduces errors that can be reduced by calibrating parameters as spatial distributions rather than single values. Calibrations for three diverse small gaged catchments located in California and in Virginia found the optimal number of subdivisions to range from 4 to 25 and the optimal scale to range from 0.3 to 2.1 mi².