Setting Realistic Recovery Targets for Two Interacting Endangered Species,Sea Otter and Northern Abalone

Failure to account for interactions between endangered species may lead to unexpected population dynamics, inefficient management strategies, waste of scarce resources, and, at worst, increased extinction risk. The importance of species interactions is undisputed, yet recovery targets generally do not account for such interactions. This shortcoming is a consequence of species‐centered legislation, but also of uncertainty surrounding the dynamics of species interactions and the complexity of modeling such interactions. The northern sea otter (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) and one of its preferred prey, northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana), are endangered species for which recovery strategies have been developed without consideration of their strong predator–prey interactions. Using simulation‐based optimization procedures from artificial intelligence, namely reinforcement learning and stochastic dynamic programming, we combined sea otter and northern abalone population models with functional‐response models and examined how different management actions affect population dynamics and the likelihood of achieving recovery targets for each species through time. Recovery targets for these interacting species were difficult to achieve simultaneously in the absence of management. Although sea otters were predicted to recover, achieving abalone recovery targets failed even when threats to abalone such as predation and poaching were reduced. A management strategy entailing a 50% reduction in the poaching of northern abalone was a minimum requirement to reach short‐term recovery goals for northern abalone when sea otters were present. Removing sea otters had a marginally positive effect on the abalone population but only when we assumed a functional response with strong predation pressure. Our optimization method could be applied more generally to any interacting threatened or invasive species for which there are multiple conservation objectives. Definición de Metas de Recuperación Realistas para Dos Especies en Peligro Interactuantes, Enhydra lutris y Haliotis kamtschatkana     

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS IN PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: By employing a set of criteria for classifying the capabilities of time series models, recent developments in time series analysis are assessed and put into proper perspective. In particular, the inherent attributes of a wide variety of time series models and modeling procedures presented by the authors of the 18 papers contained in this volume are clearly pointed out. Additionally, it is explained how these models can address many of the time series problems encountered when modeling hydrologic, water quality and other kinds of time series. For instance, families of time series models are now available for modeling series which may contain nonlinearities or may follow nonGaussian distributions. Based upon a sound physical understanding of a problem and results from exploratory data analyses, the most appropriate model to fit to a data set can be found during confirmatory data analyses by following the identification, estimation and diagnostic check stages of model construction. Promising future research projects for developing flexible classes of time series models for use in water resources applications are suggested.     

CONTEMPORANEOUS AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE (CARMA) MODELING IN WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The Contemporaneous Autoregressive-Moving Average (CARMA) model is a simple and efficient model that can be used to fit many multivariate hydrological time series. For certain types of multistation river flow systems, the CARMA model is naturally obtained when the physical restrictions of the system or the characteristics of the data are taken in consideration during the formulation of the model. It is shown how the CARMA model can optimally be used to handle multiple time series where the number of observations in each series may be different. Adequate model building techniques, as well as computational and statistical efficient algorithms to estimate the parameters of the model, are given. The methodologies and applications of the CARMA model are illustrated with three examples. It is also shown how the full multivariate ARMA model may lead to losses in efficient of the estimators when the CARMA model is adequate.     

FLEXIBLE PRICING IN WATER SUPPLY PLANNING–FOR FLEXIBLE ENGINEERS1

ABSTRACT. Preliminary results from a digital simulation model designed to test time-varying water pricing policies are presented. Stochastic inflows feeding a water supply reservoir are assumed for a hypothetical community with defined demand functions. Prices are allowed to vary as a function of reservoir level, generally rising as reservoir levels fall. Increasing, decreasing and constant rates are tested. It is concluded that varying the price to reflect the increased value of scarce supplies can greatly reduce the risk of water supply shortages. It is also concluded that varying incremental (conservational) pricing policies not only reduces the risk of shortages, but also lowers the average price to the community while rewarding the low consumption user with lower average rates.     

A COMPARISON OF SOME DYNAMIC,LINEAR AND POLICY ITERATION METHODS FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

Within the past few years, a number of papers have been published in which stochastic mathematical programming models, incorporating first order Markov chains, have been used to derive alternative sequential operating policies for a multiple purpose reservoir. This paper attempts to review and compare three such mathematical modeling and solution techniques, namely dynamic programming, policy iteration, and linear programming. It is assumed that the flows into the reservoir are serially correlated stochastic quantities. The design parameters are assumed fixed, i.e., the reservoir capacity and the storage and release targets, if any, are predetermined. The models are discrete since the continuous variables of time, volume, and flow are approximated by discrete units. The problem is to derive an optimal operating policy. Such a policy defines the reservoir release as a function of the current storage volume and inflow. The form of the solution and some of the advantages, limitations and computational efficiencies of each of the models and their algorithms are compared using a simplified numerical example.     

WATER RECLAMATION BY PHYSICOCHEMICAL TREATMENT OF WASTEWATER1

ABSTRACT. Treatment of a high strength acidic industrial chemical waste, which had a COD of about 3000 mg/1 and a pH of 3, was attempted by activated carbon adsorption to evaluate the feasibility of yielding effluents of reusable qualities. The experimental methods which were employed in this investigation included batch and column studies. The former was used to evaluate the rate and equilibrium of carbon adsorption while the latter was used to determine treatment efficiencies and performance characteristics. Parallel operations of fixed-bed and expanded-bed adsorbers were contrasted in the column study. Results of this investication indicate that activated carbon was very efficient in removing the COD of the chemical waste. Initial pH adjustments for the wastewater to 7.0 or 11.4 did not increase the COD removal efficiency. Turbidity and nitrogen (total Kjeldahl- and ammonia-N) were removed to some extents by the carbon bed adsorbers while phosphorus (total-and ortho-P) was totally unaffected by the carbon treatment.     

Conflicting energy and environmental policies: The portsmouth oil refinery

This case study presents the series of decision-making processes surrounding a current environmental issue—the Portsmouth oil refinery in Virginia. Crude oil must be refined before it can be used as fuel. Additionally, some oil must be desulfurized for use other than as gasoline. In 1977, the nation imported about one million barrels of oil a day. Although the US Department of Energy has emphasized the critical need for greater east coast refinery capability, the east coast is to supply only 25% of its refined oil needs. In the same year, the east coast met its demands for petroleum products from three sources: (a) refinery production, 22.7%, (b) product imports, 28.0%, and (c) products from the Gulf Coast, 49.3%.¹ The energy program after the Arab oil embargo has an objective of encouraging the construction of oil refineries and petrochemical plants in the United States rather than abroad. The tariff is higher on imports of refined oil products than of crude oil, and new refineries are allowed to import a large proportion of their requirements tarifffree.The US federal government does not directly regulate the locations for oil refineries or methods of desulfurization. The oil import program, however, does influence decisions concerning location of desulfurization facilities and refineries, and air and water pollution standards affect methods of refining, besides making desulfurization necessary.The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Department of Defense.     

Environmental quality criteria: Some considerations

The physicochemical characteristics of the recipient environment into which chemical contaminants are deposited may influence their chemical speciation, mobility, bioavailability, and toxicity. In formulating Water Quality Criteria, the Environmental Protection Agency of the United States (EPA) considered the modifying effect of abiotic environmental factors on pollutant toxicity in an innovative regulatory approach. Scientific knowledge of the interactions and correlations between pollutant toxicity and abiotic factors remains limited. Recognition of the influence of the physicochemical characteristics of the recipient environment on pollutant toxicity has implications for the eventual formulation of regional, rather than uniform and national, criteria. In addition, in developing Water Quality Criteria that incorporate the effects of pollutants on aquatic life, EPA primarily focused on toxicity to aquatic animals and plants (including unicellular algae). The effects of pollutants on microbe-mediated ecological processes that are necessary for maintaining the state and quality of the ecosphere (such as biogeochemical cyclings, litter decomposition, and mineralization) were not included in the formulation of the Water Quality Criteria. To facilitate the recognition and quantification of adverse effects of pollutants on these ecological processes, the development of a computation, termed the ecological dosage 50% (EcD₅₀) is recommended. Such a formulation could also be applied to setting environmental quality criteria for terrestrial ecosystems.     

Integration of the recycling processes to the life cycle analysis of construction products

The life cycle analysis of a product enables one to assess its environmental quality. A simple, transparent method taking into account the processes of recycling in the life cycle is developed here. It permits dealing with all types of open loops of all sectors. The principles on which the proposed method is grounded are discussed.     

Recent advances based on the synergetic effect of adsorption for removal of dyes from waste water using photocatalytic process

The problem of textile dye pollution has been addressed by various methods,mainly physical,chemical,biological,and acoustical.These methods mainly separate and/or remove the dye present in water.Recently,advanced oxidation processes(AOP)have been focused for removal of dye from waste water due to their advantages such as ecofriendly,economic and capable to degrade many dyes or organic pollutant present in water.Photocatalysis is one of the advance oxidation processes,mainly carried out under irradiation of light and suitable photocatalytic materials.The photocatalytic activity of the photocatalytic materials mainly depends on the band gap,surface area,and generation of electron–hole pair for degradation dyes present in water.It has been observed that the surface area plays a major role in photocatalytic degradation of dyes,by providing higher surface area,which leads to the higher adsorption of dye molecule on the surface of photocatalyst and enhances the photocatalytic activity.This present review discusses the synergic effect of adsorption of dyes on the photocatalytic efficiency of various nanostructured high surface area photocatalysts.In addition,it also provides the properties of the water polluting dyes,their mechanism and various photocatalytic materials;and their morphology used for the dye degradation under irradiation of light along with the future prospects of highly adsorptive photocatalytic material and their application in photocatalytic removal of dye from waste water.