青藏高原拉萨河流域附石藻类群落结构特征及其驱动因子分析

为探究拉萨河中下游流域附石藻类群落结构特征及其驱动因子,于2019年9月采集并鉴定附石藻类,分析了附石藻类物种组成及空间分布状况,并采用冗余分析识别了影响附石藻类群落的关键环境因子.结果表明,共计鉴定出附石藻类6门31属,附石藻类平均细胞密度为1.92×10⁶ cells·m^-2,其中硅藻门种类数和细胞密度在各采样点均最大;干、支流附石藻类种类数和细胞密度差异显著.干、支流的优势藻属差异较小,干流的主要优势属有硅藻门异极藻（Gomphonema）、脆杆藻（Fragilaria）、桥弯藻（Cymbella）和蓝藻门浮鞘丝藻（Planktolyngbya）,支流的主要优势属有硅藻门异极藻（Gomphonema）、脆杆藻（Fragilaria）、桥弯藻（Cymbella）和蓝藻门颤藻（Oscillatoria）.冗余分析表明,温度、pH和溶解氧是影响干流附石藻类优势属群落结构的主要驱动因子,HCO₃^-和流速是影响支流附石藻类优势属群落结构的主要驱动因子.本研究为拉萨河中下游流域水生生态系统保护及水质管理提供基础资料和理论依据.     

环境评价Petri网理论可移植性的方法学研究

从复杂系统、开放式巨系统仿真的角度分析,环境影响评价工程分析项目的系统属性为离散事件动态系统,而污染物的产生、排放过程属于随机过程,所以,需要采用复杂系统分析的方法对现有的环评工程分析理论进行改进。Petri网理论是分析离散事件动态系统的方法之一,其特点也非常适合对现今的环评工程分析方法进行改进。将Petri网的基础理论与环评理论相融合,使Petri网理论拥有了系统的环评学释义,进而为将Petri网理论引入环评科学开辟了道路。     

生境过滤驱动庞泉沟华北落叶松林土壤真菌群落的构建过程

随机过程和确定过程的权衡作用对群落构建的影响机制是群落生态学研究的中心议题,也是目前群落生态学最具争议的问题.本研究以关帝山庞泉沟自然保护区华北落叶松林土壤真菌群落为研究对象,探讨确定过程和随机过程的权衡作用在局域尺度对土壤真菌群落构建的影响机制.通过土壤理化因子和优势真菌门的相关分析、冗余分析以及结构方程模型分析,表明土壤理化因子和地上植被多样性对真菌群落结构有显著影响,并且林下植被多样性对真菌群落结构的直接影响最大(1.185 8).由此推断确定过程对真菌群落的构建有一定的影响.真菌群落的β多样性表现为距离衰减的生物地理分布格局,由此推断随机过程(扩散限制)对真菌群落的构建有一定的影响作用.通过构建零模型分析,表明确定过程对真菌群落演替的贡献远大于随机过程,是本研究区真菌群落构建的主要驱动因子.并且确定过程的相对重要性随着海拔梯度而动态变化.由于零偏差值在本研究区都为负值,观测值的相似性小于期望值的相似性,由此推断生境过滤是群落构建的驱动因子.综上,确定过程和随机过程的权衡作用驱动了本研究区真菌群落的构建过程,且确定过程起主导作用.     

基于正态随机模拟的武烈河环境健康风险评价

为了解武烈河的水环境健康状况,基于US EPA健康风险评价方法,将正态模糊数和随机模拟方法进行耦合,建立基于正态随机模拟的环境健康风险综合评价模型,对武烈河干支流主要断面进行环境健康风险评价。评价结果表明：所有监测断面的成人健康风险值和儿童健康风险值均小于最大风险可接受水平（5.0×10-5 a-1）,处于可接受范围内,说明武烈河流域水环境健康风险状况良好;在已有研究工作的基础上,将三角模糊数改进为正态模糊数,考虑小概率事件发生的情况、选择99%概率所对应的风险值进行评价,使监测值模拟概率分布更加合理、预测结果概率分布更符合实际情况。     

基于随机前沿分析的中国城镇建设用地利用效率研究

建设用地高效利用是促进城镇高质量增长的有效方式之一。借助2009—2016年30个省级单元面板数据,构建了用于城镇建设用地效率测度的“一步法”随机前沿模型,并对效率水平与建设用地投入、污染水平等展开关联比较。结果表明:（1）非期望产出会导致城镇建设用地利用效率损失,研究期内其分别造成东、中、西部效率损失3.77%、7.74%、8.77%。（2）效率分布具有明显的区域非均衡性,东部总体水平最高,而西部最低;且在考虑非期望产出后,不同地区效率值会因污染排放程度的差异而呈现更大分异。（3）高投入、高产出并不一定带来高土地利用效率,较高的污染排放也会造成效率损失。研究结果有助于揭示未来建设用地效率改进的重点与方向。     

城市水环境承载力及其实证研究

采用系统研究方法，对城市水环境承载力的概念、实质、功能及定量表达方法作出了分析，并利用系统动力学模拟手段进行了实证研究，利用水环境承载力指数变化对拟定的调整策略变量作出了预测、优化，得出了较满意的结论。     

HYDROLOGIC DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS OF CONSTRUCTED WETLANDS FOR URBAN STORMWATER RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: The successful design of constructed wetlands requires a continuous supply of water or vegetation that can withstand drought conditions. Having a constant water source is the best alternative to insure species diversity throughout the season. Consequently, detention structure designs should be based on times between events as well as on hydrologic return periods, since between events is when most evaporation and infiltration losses are likely to occur. In arid or semi-arid environments, this is a difficult process because of long interevent times and seasonal changes in precipitation patterns. This discussion is predicated on the assumption that phytoplankton, epiphytic algae, and emergent vegetation require moist conditions to be effective at removing nutrients, metals and other pollutants. There are drought tolerant species of vegetation that can be used in constructed wetlands but it may take several days to re-establish the attached bacteria communities necessary for optimum pollutant removal. This paper examines a stochastic framework to examine the probability of extended dry periods based on historic rainfall data. The number of consecutive dry days is selected for a specified level of assurance. By multiplying this value by the sum of daily system losses, an overall pond volume can be determined that ensures a minimum depth of water. To illustrate the utility of the approach, the method is applied to a site in Spokane, Washington.     

The Precautionary Principle for Environmental Management: A Defensive-expenditure Application

The Precautionary Principle has emerged in response to the need for an effective method for dealing with risks and uncertainties in environmental management. In essence, the Principle requires action to prevent serious and irreversible damage even before harm can be scientifically demonstrated or economically assessed. Proponents argue that the Principle should be applied in situations where both the probability and value of irreversible damage are unknown. The lack of these particular data prevent a full cost–benefit analysis, but permit application of the Principle through the defensive-expenditure approach. How much would the community be required to pay to fund alternatives to maintain the environment and so defend existing levels of utility? Through the application of risk analysis and the stochastic dominance technique, a range of options and outcomes can be examined incorporating the using available information within a framework consistent with economic rationality. An extended risk simulation is applied to an environmental issue where there is a risk of serious and irreversible damage to the environment, namely, protection of the Barmah-Millewa forest-wetland in Australia.     

Inhibition of rhythmic neural spiking by noise: the occurrence of a minimum in activity with increasing noise

The effects of noise on neuronal dynamical systems are of much current interest. Here, we investigate noise-induced changes in the rhythmic firing activity of single Hodgkin–Huxley neurons. With additive input current, there is, in the absence of noise, a critical mean value μ = μ _c above which sustained periodic firing occurs. With initial conditions as resting values, for a range of values of the mean μ near the critical value, we have found that the firing rate is greatly reduced by noise, even of quite small amplitudes. Furthermore, the firing rate may undergo a pronounced minimum as the noise increases. This behavior has the opposite character to stochastic resonance and coherence resonance. We found that these phenomena occurred even when the initial conditions were chosen randomly or when the noise was switched on at a random time, indicating the robustness of the results. We also examined the effects of conductance-based noise on Hodgkin–Huxley neurons and obtained similar results, leading to the conclusion that the phenomena occur across a wide range of neuronal dynamical systems. Further, these phenomena will occur in diverse applications where a stable limit cycle coexists with a stable focus.     

基于可靠性的弹药壳体分析设计

壳体的可靠性设计必须充分考虑各种随机变量.通过对弹药壳体从制造、贮存到使用各个环节进行分析研究,得出使壳体损坏的随机变量的散布特性,然后设计了记录随机变量的表格,提出了建立随机变量数据库的方法,最后利用可靠性数学方法对壳体进行可靠性设计.