资源配置的灰色控制模型设计及应用

本文在对资源配置的一般特性分析基础上,应用灰色系统的微分拟合法建立资源配置的动态模型,并用最优控制理论进行优化,得到资源配置的优化控制模型。并在最后给出了一个土地资源利用的实际应用例子。     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF CONDUCTWITY AS APPLIED TO DISTRIBUTED PARAMETER INFILTRATION MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Two infiltration models, called VVSIM (variable variance stochastic infiltration model) and EVVSIM (enhanced variable variance stochastic infiltration model), are developed in this study. A distributed parameter infiltration model can estimate the amount of infiltration over a field area by computing the infiltration over zones of the field area. Hydraulic conductivity is the most important parameter determining infiltration in simulations by infiltration models. The performance of an infiltration model depends on how well the model accommodates the complicated spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity. The two proposed models include the effects of spatial correlation of the conductivity distribution. Virtual conductivity fields are generated using the turning bands method. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed models give infiltration estimates more accurate than those obtained by the other models employed.     

A Stochastic Dynamic Game of Carbon Emissions Trading

This paper proposes a computable stochastic equilibrium model to represent the possible competition between Russia and China on the international market of carbon emissions permits. The model includes a representation of the uncertainty concerning the date of entry of developing countries (e.g., China) on this market in the form of an event tree. Assuming that this date of entry is an uncontrolled event, we model the competition as a dynamic game played on an event tree and we look for a solution called S-adapted equilibrium. We compare the solution obtained from realistic data describing the demand curves for permits and the marginal abatement cost curves in different countries, under different market and information structures: (i) Russia's monopoly, (ii) Russia–China competition in a deterministic framework, (iii) Russia–China competition in a stochastic framework. The results show the possible impact of this competition on the pricing of emissions permits and on the effectiveness of Kyoto and post-Kyoto agreements, without a US participation.     

基于统计复杂度的分数阶欠阻尼双稳系统的随机共振研究

目的研究Gaussian白噪声作用下分数阶欠阻尼双稳系统的随机共振现象。方法采用统计复杂度方法探究分数阶导数、余弦信号的幅值及频率、阻尼系数等参数对分数阶系统随机共振效应的影响。结果当这些参数变化时,分数阶系统的统计复杂度曲线和标准Shannon熵曲线会产生不同的变化趋势,且在分数阶导数q=0.3时,系统最易发生随机共振现象。此外,当信号振幅增加至0.2时,可以增强随机共振效应;相反,信号频率增大至0.07时,可以削弱此现象。结论这些因素可以有效地调节分数阶双稳系统的随机共振现象。     

考虑尾矿材料参数空间变异性的尾矿坝稳定可靠度分析

为客观地评价尾矿坝稳定性,在随机场理论和极限平衡分析框架下,采用考虑参数空间变异性尾矿坝可靠度分析的非侵入式随机有限元法,通过Karhunen Loève级数展开方法离散尾矿材料参数（渗透系数、摩擦角等）随机场,利用Hermite随机多项式展开拟合尾矿坝安全系数与输入参数之间的隐式函数关系;再采用拉丁超立方抽样技术产生输入参数样本点求解多项式展开系数;最后,通过应用到一实际尾矿坝工程说明了该方法的有效性。结果表明,该方法可以真实地模拟尾矿材料的空间变异性对尾矿坝稳定性的影响,保证尾矿坝可靠度分析与确定性稳定分析互不耦合,与10 000次直接拉丁超立方抽样方法相比,该方法具有较高的计算精度和效率。     

Butterfly community shifts over two centuries

Environmental changes strongly impact the distribution of species and subsequently the composition of species assemblages. Although most community ecology studies represent temporal snap shots, long‐term observations are rather rare. However, only such time series allow the identification of species composition shifts over several decades or even centuries. We analyzed changes in the species composition of a southeastern German butterfly and burnet moth community over nearly 2 centuries (1840–2013). We classified all species observed over this period according to their ecological tolerance, thereby assessing their degree of habitat specialisation. This classification was based on traits of the butterfly and burnet moth species and on their larval host plants. We collected data on temperature and precipitation for our study area over the same period. The number of species declined substantially from 1840 (117 species) to 2013 (71 species). The proportion of habitat specialists decreased, and most of these are currently endangered. In contrast, the proportion of habitat generalists increased. Species with restricted dispersal behavior and species in need of areas poor in soil nutrients had severe losses. Furthermore, our data indicated a decrease in species composition similarity between different decades over time. These data on species composition changes and the general trends of modifications may reflect effects from climate change and atmospheric nitrogen loads, as indicated by the ecological characteristics of host plant species and local changes in habitat configuration with increasing fragmentation. Our observation of major declines over time of currently threatened and protected species shows the importance of efficient conservation strategies.     

Effects of Harvest of Nontimber Forest Products and Ecological Differences between Sites on the Demography of African Mahogany

Abstract: The demographic impacts of harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFP) have been increasingly studied because of reports of potentially unsustainable harvest. Nevertheless, our understanding of how plant demographic response to harvest is altered by variation in ecological conditions, which is critical for developing realistic sustainable‐use plans, is limited. We built matrix population models to test whether and how variation in ecological conditions affects population responses to harvest. In particular, we examined the effect of bark and foliage harvest on the demography of populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in two contrasting ecological regions of Benin, West Africa. K. senegalensis bark and foliage harvest significantly reduced its stochastic population growth rates, but ecological differences between regions had a greater effect on population growth rates than did harvest. The effect of harvest on population growth rates (Δλ) was slightly stronger in the moist than in the drier region. Life‐table response experiments revealed that the mechanism by which harvesting reduced λ differed between ecological regions. Lowered stasis (persistence) of larger life stages lead to a reduction in λ in the drier region, whereas lowered growth of all life stages lowered λ in moist region. Potential strategies to increase population growth rates should include decreasing the proportion of individuals harvested, promoting harvester‐owned plantations of African mahogany, and increasing survival and growth by promoting no‐fire zones in gallery forests. Our results show how population responses to harvest of NTFP may be altered by ecological differences across sites and emphasize the importance of monitoring populations over the climatic range in which they occur to develop more realistic recommendations for conservation.     

An optimized approach for estimating benzene in ambient air within an air quality monitoring network

Benzene is a carcinogenic air pollutant for which European legislation has set an annual limit and criteria for the number of fixed monitoring sites within air quality networks（AQMN）. However, due to the limited number of fixed sites for benzene measurement, exposure data are lacking. Considering the relationship between benzene levels and other variables monitored within an AQMN, such as NO₂, O₃, temperature, solar radiation, and accumulated precipitation, this study propo...     

Representing general theoretical concepts in structural equation models: the role of composite variables

Structural equation modeling (SEM) holds the promise of providing natural scientists the capacity to evaluate complex multivariate hypotheses about ecological systems. Building on its predecessors, path analysis and factor analysis, SEM allows for the incorporation of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables into theoretically-based probabilistic models. In this paper we discuss the interface between theory and data in SEM and the use of an additional variable type, the composite. In simple terms, composite variables specify the influences of collections of other variables and can be helpful in modeling heterogeneous concepts of the sort commonly of interest to ecologists. While long recognized as a potentially important element of SEM, composite variables have received very limited use, in part because of a lack of theoretical consideration, but also because of difficulties that arise in parameter estimation when using conventional solution procedures. In this paper we present a framework for discussing composites and demonstrate how the use of partially-reduced-form models can help to overcome some of the parameter estimation and evaluation problems associated with models containing composites. Diagnostic procedures for evaluating the most appropriate and effective use of composites are illustrated with an example from the ecological literature. It is argued that an ability to incorporate composite variables into structural equation models may be particularly valuable in the study of natural systems, where concepts are frequently multifaceted and the influence of suites of variables are often of interest.