Dynamic Modeling of Ground‐Water Quality Using Bayesian Techniques1

Abstract: Water industry experts have been arguing that the traditional techniques are not an accurate means of measuring water contamination. This is mainly because these techniques emphasize neither the stochastic nature of the water contamination process nor the precision and the accuracy of the tested methods used by environmental laboratories. In this work, we describe the development and application of prototype Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) that model ground‐water quality to determine the impact of chemical contaminants on ground‐water quality in the Salalah area, which is allocated to the south of Oman. We also present a new technique for data pre‐processing because it is needed for the treatment of ground‐water datasets that are used as the data source to learn the probabilities for dynamic decision models. Among more than 20 wells in area, only four wells were selected to be analyzed and the results show that we achieved an acceptable level of efficiency.     

FORECASTING QUARTER-MONTHLY RIVERFLOW1

Recent developments with respect to transfer function-noise models are reviewed and used to model and forecast quarter-monthly (i.e., near-weekly) natural inflows to the Lac St-Jean reservoir in the Province of Quebec, Canada. The covariate series are rainfall and snowmelt, the latter being a novel derivation from daily rainfall, snowfall and temperature series. It is clearly demonstrated using the residual variance and the Akaike information criterion that modeling is improved as one starts with a deseasonalized ARMA model of the inflow series and successively adds transfer functions for the rainfall and snowmelt series. It is further demonstrated that the transfer function-noise model is better than a periodic autoregressive model of the inflow series. A split-sample experiment is used to compare one-step-ahead forecasts from this transfer function-noise model with forecasts from other stochastic models as well as with forecasts from a so-called conceptual hydrological model (i.e., a model which attempts to mathematically simulate the physical processes involved in the hydrological cycle). It is concluded that the transfer function-noise model is the preferred model for forecasting the quarter-monthly Lac St-Jean inflow series.     

THE RANDOM COMPONENT IN STREAM MEANDERING1

ABSTRACT: An experimental investigation of the random component in stream meandering is described. The results of sixty replicate experiments of meander initiation and development made using the same discharge, bed material and bed slope are described and analyzed. It is demonstrated that the commencement of meandering is a random process. The random component in meander behavior is indicated by the size of the coefficients of variation of meander amplitude and wavelength of 0.45 and 0.22, respectively. A simple model is put forward to explain the observed deterministic and random components of meander behavior.     

DEVELOPING AND ASSESSING A MODEL OF RESIDENTIAL WATER CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: Relevant literature was reviewed from which a model of residential water conservation was developed. Four residential conservation program interventions were posited: 1) public education, 2) pricing variables, 3) water use restrictions, and 4) building code requirements. Four exogenous variables affecting residential water use were also posited: 1) temperature, 2) rainfall, 3) household income, and 4) household size. The impacts of these eight variables on residential per capita daily use were assessed by cross sectional and time series analysis. Study results generally supported the porposed model, with less consistent support obtained for pricing variables and conservation beliefs. The paper concludes with the hypothesis that an inclining block rate structure coupled with an informational program designed to inform consumers of their consumption under each block will have a synergistic impact.     

A FLOOD DAMAGE MODEL FOR FLOOD PLAIN STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: Hydrologic and economic information must be integrated in flood plain management. This study describes an integrated approach which includes consideration of the hydrologic, hydrodynamic, physical, and economic components of the total system. On the basis of these components, a theoretical model is proposed which provides a rational procedure for estimating flood damages from projections of economic development within an area. The utility of the model is demonstrated by applying it to a flood-prone region in Southern Quebec, Canada.     

THE IMPACT OF POLICY VARIABLES ON RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND AND RELATED INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS1

Increasing population and urbanization necessitate very large investments in municipal water supply. These investments could be more efficiently deployed if the impact of policy variables such as marginal pricing, metering, by-laws on lawn watering and plumbing fixtures, and higher summer charges were known. The paper in particular advocates the replacement of the present declining block rate by an increasing block rate. In order to know the impact of policy variables, a multiple regression model is built; the fitted model is tested against some data not included in calibrating the model. Next the impact of selected policy variables on the target variable (residential water demand during summer) is worked out for a new urban community of 200,000 people. The investment requirements may decrease appreciably as a result of a price increase when marginal (or commodity) charges are low but the impact of price changes when commodity charges are already high is less evident and non-price policy variables may be more effective in maintaining high quality water and also satisfying the constraint of limited budgets for municipal services.     

Institutional quality effects on separate waste collection: some evidence from Italian provinces

Separate waste collection in Italy comes under the responsibility of local authorities, provinces, while national laws set quantitative targets to be achieved over time. Overall, just a few provinces have reached the thresholds set by the latest law (Legislative Decree 152/2006) and some territorial differentiation has been detected. The aim of this paper is twofold: to verify the effectiveness of Legislative Decree 152/2006 in promoting higher levels of separate collection and to test whether institutional quality (considering the following indicators: voice and accountability, regulatory quality, rule of law and corruption) affects provinces’ efficiency in the separate collection process. For this purpose, we implement the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Results suggest that the effectiveness of Legislative Decree 152/2006 has been affected by provinces’ institutional quality. In particular, the presence of institutional constraints did not allow the most virtuous provinces to achieve the targets set by law.     

Monitoring Long-Term Ecological Changes Through the Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network: Science-Based and Policy Relevant

Ecological monitoring and its associated research programshave often provided answers to various environmental management issues. In the face of changing environmental conditions, ecological monitoring provides decision-makers with reliable information as they grapple with maintaining a sustainable economy and healthy environment. The EcologicalMonitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN) is a national ecological monitoring network consisting of (1) about 100 casestudy sites across the country characterized by long-term multi-disciplinary environmental work conducted by a multitudeof agencies (142 partners and counting); (2) a variety of lesscomprehensive yet more extensive monitoring sites; (3) a network where core monitoring variables of ecosystem change aremeasured; and (4) geo-referenced environmental observations. Environment Canada is the co-ordinating partner for the network through the EMAN Co-ordinating Office. EMAN's mission is to focus a scientifically-sound, policy-relevant ecosystem monitoring and research network based on (a) stabilizing a network of case-study sites operated by a varietyof partners, and (b) developing a number of cooperative dispersedmonitoring initiatives in order to deliver unique and needed goods and services. These goods and services include: (1) an efficient and cost-effective early warning system which detects,describes and reports on changes in Canadian ecosystems at a national or ecozone scale; and (2) cross-disciplinary and cross-jurisdictional assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes. The early warning system and assessments of ecosystem status, trends and processes provide Environment Canada and partner organizations with timely information thatfacilitates increasingly adaptive policies and priority setting. Canadians are also informed of changes and trends occurring in Canadian ecosystems and, as a result, are betterable to make decisions related to conservation and sustainability.     

POTENTIAL OF EPISODIC FLOWS IN SOME FOUR REPRESENTATIVE NON-PERENNIAL RIVER FLOW CATCHMENTS IN SEMI ARID LAIKIPIA DISTRICT, KENYA

The purpose of this study was to establish the water resources of thenon-perennial streams in providing supplementary water needs inLaikipia district. This district has undergone remarkable land usechanges resulting in water use stress of perennial river abstractions andgroundwater exploitation in the semi arid environment.Over a three year period extending from January 1989 to December1991, hydrological variables were monitored in four non-perennial flowcatchments within the district. These catchments have been shown tohave potential of about 8000 m³/km²/year except forlong dry spells during the observation period and high sediment lossesand evaporation rates calling for proper conservation measures in orderto exploit productively the water resources potential of such catchments.     

An approach to deal with uncertainty in energy and environmental planning: the MARKAL case

This paper presents a new concept to include uncertainty management in energy and environmental planning models developed in algebraic modeling languages. SETSTOCH is a tool for linking algebraic modeling languages with specialized stochastic programming solvers. Its main role is to retrieve from the modeling language a dynamically ordered core model (baseline scenario) that is sent automatically to the stochastic solver. The case presented herein concerns such a study realized with the IEAMARKAL model used by many research teams around the world.