Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

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Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

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- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

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- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

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- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

我国鲟鱼类资源及其保护与发展途径

鲟鱼类为北半球古老的大型经济鱼类，栖息于太平洋、大西洋和内陆水域，是世界著名的经济鱼类．近年来在有关科研项目的支持下，对我国境内的11种鲟鱼类资源进行了生物学、生态学等方面的一系列调查研究．本文着重论述了鲟鱼类的自然分布、经济与科研价值，分析了资源现状及其衰退原因，并提出今后资源保护与发展的8个途径．     

Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.     

皖江城市带农作物碳储量动态变化研究

根据近20 a（1991~2010）主要农作物产量与耕地面积的相关数据,结合主要农作物的含碳率、经济系数、根冠比、果实水分系数,利用农作物产量与碳储量转换模型计算法对皖江城市带主要农作物碳储量、碳密度进行了估算,分析该区农田生态系统植被碳库的总量和构成的动态变化。结果表明：近20 a来该区农田植被碳储量和植被碳密度都有一定程度的提高,且2010年研究区农田植被碳储量占当年安徽省能源消耗总排碳量的2306%,具有十分明显的碳汇效应,但农作物碳储量和碳密度呈现一定的波动性。研究区中农作物碳储量以水稻作物为主(占总碳储量的6659%),各市农作物碳储量、碳密度表现为：六安、滁州农作物碳储量最大,铜陵最小;滁州、马鞍山农作物碳密度最大,铜陵最小。最后根据该区农作物碳库的构成特点和动态特征,为其进一步提高农作物碳库的碳储量和碳密度提出一些建议     

On Characteristics of Production and Destruction Processes in Lowland and Mountain Tundras of the Extreme North

Parameters of the production and destruction processes in different types of tundras are compared. It is shown that there is a fairly high degree of correspondence between the structure of tundra communities and the ecotopes occupied by them. On the other hand, typologically similar lowland and mountain tundras markedly differ in the functional respect. The rate of decomposition processes is higher under environmental conditions of the mountain tundra belt.     

Century Perspective of Heavy Metal Use in Urban Areas. A Case Study in Stockholm

The inflow and stock (amount in use) of heavy metals (cadmium(Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn)) in goods in 1995 have been quantifiedin the anthroposphere of Stockholm, Sweden. Statistics on national, regional and local level were used. Contacts were established with representatives from production and constructionin the industrial sector and with authorities. The results show that the stock of Cd is 0,2 kg per capita. For the other heavymetals the corresponding result per capita is: Cr 8, Cu 170, Hg 0,01, Ni 4, Pb 73 and Zn 40 kg. The inflow varies between2–8%of the stock indicating the importance of the stock. The lowestlevels are for Cu and Pb. Heavy metal levels in solid waste are high, between 15–45% of the amount in the inflow (Hg excluded), the lowest values were for Cu and Pb. Thus, recyclingis incomplete. Long life expectancy goods form the majority of the stock but there is a tendency that short life expectancy goods increase their importance in the inflow. Concealedgoods are also more frequent in inflow than in the stock.     

三峡库区乔木林生物量和碳储量的估算

以三峡库区为研究地点,建立库区优势树种立木生物量模型,并测定乔木含碳系数,结合库区第7次和第8次森林资源连续清查数据,估算了整个三峡库区乔木林的生物量和碳储量。研究结果表明:(1)整个库区乔木林生物量和碳储量第7次调查为12 583×104t和6 471×104t,单位面积生物量75.70t/hm2,碳密度38.93t/hm2,第8次调查为14 253×104t和7 396×104t,单位面积生物量77.46t/hm2,碳密度40.20t/hm2。可见,这5a中,三峡库区生物量和碳储量都有所增加。(2)对于不同森林植被类型来说,松类的生物量和碳储量都显著高于其他类型,分别占三峡库区生物量和碳储量的40%和50%。(3)三峡库区森林植被生物量和碳储量随龄级增大先增大后减少,在中龄林时达到最大,比较两次调查的生物量和碳储量,森林植被主要以幼林龄和中龄林占优。(4)两次调查显示三峡库区森林植被生物量和碳储量主要分布在天然林中,对于碳汇起到主要作用,同时,人工林所占的比例有所提高,其碳汇能力也逐步提高。     

泉州湾红树植物中重金属元素的分布与储量

用ICP-AES测定了泉州湾洛阳江河口红树植物桐花树(Aegiceras corniculatum)和秋茄(Kandelia candel)根际沉积物中重金属总量和有效态含量,以及这2种植物体内重金属的含量,探讨了该红树林湿地重金属元素的分布、富集和储量情况。结果表明,2种红树植物根际沉积物中重金属总量均表现为:Fe>Mn>Zn>V>Pb>Cr>Cu>Ni>Co>Cd,有效态含量均表现为:Fe>Mn>Zn>Pb>Cu>V>Cr>Ni>Co>Cd,部分重金属具有一定潜在的有害生物效应;Fe、V在2种红树植物根部的含量最高,Mn在叶中的含量最高,其余重金属未有明显的统一规律;相关性分析表明,2种植物根中Cu和Zn,Pb和V、Co、Ni,Cr和Zn,Zn和V,V和Co、Ni,Co和Ni之间互有明显协同作用;除Mn在叶中存在较强的富集能力(富集系数大于1),2种红树植物对其余重金属元素的富集能力均较小,远达不到超富集植物的要求;秋茄和桐花树对Mn从根向叶的迁移能力最强,Cu、Cr、Zn在2种植物中的迁移系数均大于1,Cd在桐花树中的迁移系数也大于1,说明2种植物都有将这些元素向叶中输送的趋势,应注意其通过食物链富集作用引起的危害。2种红树植物中重金属总储量大小表现为:Mn>Fe(秋茄则Fe>Mn)>Zn>Cu>Cr>Pb>V>Ni>Co>Cd,其中Mn和Fe的总储量之和分别占到了总储量的97.7%(桐花树)和99%(秋茄)。     

Estimation of in-use steel stock for civil engineering and building using nighttime light images

To establish a sustainable society, it is necessary to understand the flows and stocks of materials. However, traditional material flow analysis requires large quantities of data relating to the consumption and trade of materials in the past and the lifetime distributions of end use. To overcome the problem that such data may not be available, we have proposed using nighttime light images to estimate the in-use stocks of materials in countries for which the data are unavailable. In the previous study, in-use steel stock for civil engineering and building in 2006 was estimated using nighttime light images. However, several aspects of the methodology must be improved, and time-series analyses using nighttime light images have not yet been performed. Therefore, in this study, we improved the estimation of in-use steel stock by using new geological information (i.e., LandScan population distribution data) and correcting the pixel area. We prepared radiance-calibrated nighttime light data for 2006 and 2010 and conducted time-series analyses of the in-use steel stock using the nighttime light data. The in-use steel stock for civil engineering and building in 2010 was found to amount to approximately 11.3 Gt, which was approximately 21% higher than that in 2006.     

露天煤矿矿区生态资产负债核算技术方案

生态资产负债核算技术体系是施行生态环境管理政绩考核制度的必要科技支撑.目前生态资产研究在核算内容上注重生态资产流量评估而忽视生态资产存量损失计量,强调生态系统服务变化研究而对其变化原因探索不足,并且在研究技术手段上强调3S宏观技术手段而忽视微观生态要素调查和生态环境质量评价,因此尚不足以为地方政府生态环境管控绩效考核提供强有力支撑.针对露天煤矿开采所导致的严峻生态环境问题,将微观研究手段与宏观分析技术方法相结合,通过对比来分析核算时段起止年份生态资产存量的类别、数量、质量、空间格局,辨识矿区采矿作业、土地复垦、生态恢复等人类活动对生态环境的损益类型和特征;基于不同类别存量生态资产质量评价来判别其损益程度,进而划分生态资产负债核算类型区并探究其损益原因;以此为前提探索构建包括存量、流量及负债三部分内容在内的生态资产负债核算框架及技术方法,并采用直接法和间接法编制生态资产负债表.研究旨在弥补现有区域生态资产评估技术的不足,以为生态环境管理绩效考核提供更为客观、详实、可靠的资料数据为核心,倡导生态资产研究内容与方法的革新.