土地利用变化对碳排放的影响

大气中温室气体浓度增加是人类面临的严峻挑战.土地利用变化已成为仅次于化石能源燃烧的第二大温室气体排放源.本文在界定土地利用变化碳排放作用机制及内涵的基础上,从农用地向非农用地转换、农用地内部土地利用以及非农用地内部土地利用三个方面综述了土地利用变化对碳排放的影响.农用地向非农用地的转换会增加碳排放量.农用地内部土地利用变化方面,农田转换为森林或草地能够使土壤和植被碳储量增加,但是土壤碳汇集速率存在一定的差异;农田、森林和草地管理措施对生态系统碳循环的影响目前还存在争议,但基本观点是合理的管理措施能够减少碳排放置.非农用地内部土地利用变化方面,从能源消耗角度考虑,二产用地向三产用地转换会减少碳排放量.因此合理组织土地利用对帮助我国实现碳减排承诺,发展低碳经济有重要意义.     

休耕对抚仙湖周边农田土壤剖面和浅层地下水中氮累积的影响

减少外源氮投入能有效降低农田土壤氮累积和地下水氮污染,休耕是减少外源氮投入的重要措施之一.为探讨农田休耕对土壤剖面和浅层地下水中氮累积的影响,以抚仙湖周边农田土壤剖面和浅层地下水为研究对象,分析了休耕前（2017年12月）和休耕后（2020年8月和2021年4月）农田0~100 cm土壤剖面氮累积和浅层地下水中氮浓度的变化及其两者的关系.结果表明:休耕显著降低了土壤剖面氮含量和储量,休耕后0~30、30~60和60~100 cm土壤剖面TN、ON、DTN、NO₃ ^--N和NH₄ ⁺-N含量分别降低18.4 %~36.5 %、16.1 %~26.8 %、54.0 %~130.2 %、59.5 %~90.8 %和60.1 %~110.6 %.休耕前0~100 cm土壤TN、ON、DTN、 NO₃ ^--N和NH₄ ⁺-N储量分别为（17.20 ±0.97）t·hm^-2、（15.50 ±1.23）t·hm^-2、（0.68 ±0.06）t·hm^-2、（266.8 ±31.17）kg·hm^-2和（18.7 ±3.04）kg·hm^-2,休耕后各形态氮储量分别下降了25.5 %、23.3 %、44.7 %、80.1 %和59.9 %.休耕也改变了浅层地下水中氮浓度和形态构成,休耕后地下水中TN、ON、NO₃ ^--N和NH₄ ⁺-N浓度分别下降了88.4 %、82.7 %、92.1 %、65.8 %,ON/TN和NH₄ ⁺-N/TN从休耕前的26 %和6 %升高至休耕后的39 %和17 %,而NO₃ ^--N/TN从休耕前的61 %降至休耕后的41 %.地下水氮浓度和形态变化与休耕前后土壤中DTN、NH₄ ⁺-N、NO₃ ^--N和地下水中pH、ORP、DO等因素密切相关.可见,休耕有效降低了农田土壤剖面氮累积,缓解了浅层地下水氮污染,有利于防止高原湖泊的水质恶化.     

黔中喀斯特地区典型县域碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测：以普定县为例

探析黔中喀斯特地区典型县域碳储量时空演变和未来空间分布趋势,对优化土地生态安全格局,提升区域碳储量,促进城市低碳可持续发展具有重要意义.以黔中喀斯特地区典型县域——普定县为例,耦合PLUS-InVEST模型,基于解译的土地利用数据和未来土地预测,反演1973~2020年普定县的土地利用变化与碳储量时空演变特征,并模拟预测2060年不同情景下土地利用空间格局演变及其碳储量变化.结果表明：①1973~2020年普定县碳储量整体增加6.61×10⁵ t,呈上升趋势,空间上呈现出“东和西部上升,中南部下降”的变化特征.②普定县历史时期土地利用变化主要表现为建设用地持续扩张,有林地和灌木林地面积占比波动上升,2060年不同情景下土地利用变化延续了历史时期的变化特征.③2060年普定县在自然演变、生态保护和经济发展情景下碳储量较2020年分别增加2.93×10⁵、5.40×10⁵和1.11×10⁵ t,其中生态保护情景增加最为显著,旱地向灌木林地转移是区域固碳能力增加的主要原因.研究结果可为普定县土地利用管理决策以及减排增汇政策制定提供科学参考.     

碳捕集与封存技术适用风险预防原则的理论建构与路径完善

以碳捕集与封存为典型的新兴技术在应对气候变化上的降碳功能显著,但该技术颇具不确定性。“决策于未知”成为政府规制技术风险的真实写照,如何在鼓励碳捕集与封存技术发展,助力“双碳”目标实现的同时,应对随之而来的风险挑战与安全诉求,既是国家必须肩负的义务,也是回应公众期待的内在要求。应运而生的风险预防原则作为应对气候变化的重要举措,为技术风险规制提供了合法性与正当性基础,对于碳捕获、封存技术发展与碳中和目标实现具有重要现实意义。为此,风险预防原则在技术规制中,应当整体遵循弱风险预防理念,彰显秩序、正义和效率的多元价值诉求,实现科学理性与社会理性的平衡。在此基础上,通过多手段的综合应用,开放的风险决策结构,强化风险管理的动态调试,以预防性环境行政公益诉讼为保障,将风险预防原则融汇于碳捕集与封存技术风险规制中。     

香溪河库湾浮游细菌和病毒计数方法比较研究

液氮速冻后转入-80℃保存是流式细胞仪计数浮游细菌及病毒的样品保存之标准条件。以荧光显微镜计数法为参照,利用流式细胞仪对温和冷冻保存(-20℃冷冻2周后转入-80℃保存)的香溪河库湾水样分别计数了浮游细菌和浮游病毒丰度。结果显示,利用流式细胞仪计数香溪河库湾水样中的浮游细菌丰度与荧光显微镜计数法等效(P>0.05);流式细胞仪计数浮游病毒丰度高于荧光显微镜计数结果2.0±0.1倍(Z=-4.704,P<0.01),且具有强正相关(r=0.979,P<0.01)。计数结果间的差异与其他环境中样品标准保存方法下计数结果相近,表明温和冷冻保藏条件对流式细胞仪计数香溪河库湾水样中浮游细菌和浮游病毒丰度结果无明显影响。     

Safety assessment of natural gas storage tank using similarity aggregation method based fuzzy fault tree analysis (SAM-FFTA) approach

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an important method to analyze the failure causes of engineering systems and evaluate their safety and reliability. In practical application, the probabilities of bottom events in FTA are usually estimated according to the opinions of experts or engineers because it is difficult to obtain sufficient probability data of bottom events in fault tree. However, in many cases, there are many experts with different opinions or different forms of opinions. How to reasonably aggregate expert opinions is a challenge for the engineering application of fault tree method. In this study, a fuzzy fault tree analysis approach based on similarity aggregation method (SAM-FFTA) has been proposed. This method combines SAM with fuzzy set theory and can handled comprehensively diverse forms of opinions of different experts to obtain the probabilities of bottom events in fault tree. Finally, for verifying the applicability and flexibility of the proposed method, a natural gas spherical storage tank with a volume of 10,000 m³ was analyzed, and the importance of each bottom event was determined. The results show that flame, lightning spark, electrostatic spark, impact spark, mechanical breakdown and deformation/breakage have the most significant influence on the explosion of the natural gas spherical storage tank.     

基于虚拟力的危化品仓储堆垛定位校正算法

超宽带定位技术作为一种室内高精度定位技术是解决危化品仓库堆垛贮存状态安全监测的有效方法,但在仓库非视距环境中,存在定位精度不足的问题,无法满足堆垛“五距”安全的监管要求。针对此问题,从UWB信号的信道模型和定位精度影响因素出发,利用高斯滤波消除了参考点在定位过程中由于系统和环境带来的随机误差影响,建立了参考点误差矢量库,并提出了一种虚拟力校正算法,利用建立的矢量库来对待测标签进行矢量补偿,达到提高定位精度的目的。实验表明,该方法可以提高危化品仓储堆垛定位精度,适用于监测危化品仓储状态。     

Re-establishment of the proper injectivity of the CO2-injection well Ktzi 201 in Ketzin, Germany

The onshore CO₂-storage site Ketzin consists of one CO₂-injection well and two observation wells. Hydraulic tests revealed permeabilities between 50 and 100 mD for the sandstone rock units. The designated injection well Ktzi 201 showed similar production permeability. After installation of the CO₂-injection string, an injection test with water yielded a significantly lower injectivity of 0.002 m³/d kPa, while the observation wells showed an injection permeability in the same range as the productivity. Several possible reasons for the severe decline in injectivity are discussed. Acidification of the reservoir interval, injection at high wellhead pressure, controlled mini-fractures and back-production of the well are discussed to remove the plugging material to re-establish the required injectivity of the well. It has been decided to perform a nitrogen lift and analyse the back-produced fluids. Initially during the lift, the back-produced fluids were dark-black. Chemical and XRD analyses proved that the black solids consisted mainly of iron sulphide. Sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB) were detected in fluid samples with up to 10⁶ cells/ml by fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH) indicating that the formation of iron sulphide was caused by bacterial activity. Organic compounds within the drilling mud and other technical fluids were likely left during the well completion process, thus providing the energy source for strong proliferation of bacteria. During the lift, the fraction of SRB in the whole bacterial community decreased from approximately 32% in downhole samples to less than 5%. The lift of Ktzi 201 succeeded in the full restoration of the well productivity and injectivity. Additionally, the likely energy source of the SRB was largely removed by the lifting, thus ensuring the long-term preservation of the injectivity.     

Hydraulic characterisation of the Stuttgart formation at the pilot test site for CO2 storage, Ketzin, Germany

The paper presents an approach for the interpretation of hydraulic tests of a CO₂ storage reservoir. The sandstone reservoir is characterised by a fluviatile channel structure embedded in a low-permeability matrix. Pumping tests were carried out in three wells, with simultaneous pressure monitoring in each well.The hydraulic parameters (permeability and storativity) and the boundary configurations were calibrated using three different approaches: (i) parameter calibration and type curve interpretation for single-hole tests, (ii) calibration of the entire build-up phase for cross-hole tests, and (iii) calibration of the initial pressure response for cross-hole pumping tests. In addition, the arrival time of the pressure response was determined and provides additional information about the pathways of hydraulic connection.The measured pumping test permeabilities of the formation were much lower than those measured on the cores, which is very unusual. The pumping test permeabilities are mainly between 50 mD and 100 mD (millidarcy), while core samples show a mean aquifer permeability of 500–1100 mD. Based on this it was concluded that some kind of continuous low-permeability structure exists, which was supported by core material. Three possible aquifer configurations were considered. The first and second were derived from traditional pumping test analysis and were conceptualised using flow boundaries. Each of the analyses provides a different result. A method was developed in which these differences were resolved by interpreting the pressure response with respect to its spatial and temporal sensitivity. This solution lead to a third configuration which was mainly based on spatially-variable permeabilities. Taking into account the pumping test results, the geological background and the behaviour of injected CO₂, we consider only the third configuration to be realistic. The results are in good agreement with modelled CO₂ arrival times and pressure history.     

不同固定剂及保存时间对微微型浮游生物样品测定的影响

对比了用流式细胞术现场测定及用多聚甲醛、戊二醛及两者的混合物这三种常用固定剂进行固定保存对微微型浮游生物样品的影响。结果表明,在1个月内,细胞数量变化并不显著,但随着保存时间的增加,细胞数量明显减少,且散射光信号明显增大。除原绿球藻的藻红素荧光基本不变、微微型真核浮游植物的藻红素荧光大幅增加外,其余荧光信号均发生不同程度的减少。同时,戊二醛所引起的微微型真核浮游植物荧光信号的极大改变会影响类群的界定。如有可能,应该尽量现场测定微微型浮游生物样品,否则建议采用多聚甲醛或其与戊二醛的混合物作为固定剂,将样品保存于液氮中,待返回实验室后尽快进行测定。