上海乔木林分碳储量比较分析研究

基于全国第七次（2004年-2009年）森林资源清样调查资料,并参考上海市2011年森林植被遥感数据,运用线性相关和双曲线相关的换算因子连续函数法,对上海8种主要乔木林分碳储量进行估算,并分析了不同龄组和地域分布的乔木林分碳储量。结果表明,两种方法的估值差别较大,但均是樟树、幼龄林和市区乔木林分碳储量贡献比较大。     

基于储存寿命的战储器材轮换方法研究

针对传统轮换方法在战储器材轮换上的缺陷和不足,结合长储器材失效数据较少、无法实时检测等特点,提出了一种利用定期检测数据分析小子样储存可靠度,并估计其储存寿命来确定轮换期的方法。在求解寿命分布参数时,为克服迭代法运算时间较长、初始值选取对迭代结果收敛性影响较大等不足,利用粒子群算法求解。通过实例分析表明,该方法得到的结果与工程实际相吻合,能为战储器材的轮换提供有效的决策支持。     

一种基于测试数据的单枚导弹贮存寿命评估方法

目的研究单枚导弹的贮存寿命评估问题。方法对导弹状态数据中的定期测试数据进行统计分析,确定测试数据的变化规律,并通过移动标准差概念的引入,探讨测试数据的稳定性。应用多项式最小二乘法拟合对测试数据中表征导弹关键部件的特征参数的移动标准差进行预测。建立了单枚导弹的贮存寿命评估模型,并进行实例分析。结果得出了导弹的贮存稳定性水平。结论验证了该评估模型的合理性。     

基于Tanks 4.0.9d模型的石化储罐VOCs排放定量方法研究

石化储罐VOCs排放是石化行业重要的VOCs排放源之一.为了掌握石化储罐VOCs的排放情况,研究了基于Tanks4.0.9d模型计算各种类型储罐VOCs排放量的方法,并对卧式固定顶罐、立式固定顶罐、内浮顶罐和外浮顶罐的VOCs排放量进行了实例计算.同时,探讨了在国内使用Tanks 4.0.9d模型时需要考虑的所在地气象数据、储罐密封情况、储存物质的参数选择及参数单位换算问题.Tanks 4.0.9d模型可以作为一种方便且准确性较高的石化储罐VOCs排放定量方法在国内推广使用.     

原油储罐硫化氢脱除实验及应用

采用循环气提法脱除原油储罐中的硫化氢以达到降低储罐内硫化氢浓度的目的。某联合站卸油台零位罐的实验结果表明:经过7h的实验,零位罐观察口硫化氢浓度可由484mg/m3降低至9mg/m3。文章主要介绍了循环气提法在轮三联合站卸油台零位罐的实验过程、除硫剂的筛选及在某联合站原油储罐的应用情况。实践证明该方法能够有效降低储罐内硫化氢浓度。     

大型LNG储罐防火间距分析

国内LNG接收站产业发展日益壮大,LNG储罐的规模也随之呈现大型化的趋势,其带来对周边储罐的安全问题成为关注的焦点.针对大型LNG储罐防火间距的分析,依据国际广泛接受的美国NFPA 59A-2009和欧洲EN1473-2007标准,分别采用事故后果模拟手段和危险性评估方法确定储罐防火间距,事故场景分别考虑了罐顶池火灾和卸料管线发生直径50mm孔洞泄漏火灾.在此基础之上,对事故后果模拟得到的结果进行分析,明确储罐防火间距,从而为企业对LNG储罐区进行布局设计提供参考指导.     

Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?

A strong increase in the demand for some commodities over the last decade will have a major impact on their future supply situation. Of increasing importance, therefore, is an assessment of a commodity's criticality, and especially its supply risk, by appropriate indicators. The literature has proposed numerous indicators of the supply risk. Here, we use the convenience yield of commodity futures as a supply risk indicator to address some of the major shortcomings of existing indicators, especially regarding their predictive power. This paper aims to test the applicability of the convenience yield as an indicator of a commodity's future supply risk. Therefore, we calculate historical convenience yields for 3-, 15-, and 27-month futures contracts for five major industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc) during the period 1999 to 2011. We compare the convenience yields at the beginning of the contract period to known indicators at maturity to find that the convenience yield has generally predictive power for the static stock lifetime (i.e., inventory volume/turnover) and future spot prices. Furthermore, we find that, with some restrictions, the convenience yield is an applicable indicator of a commodity's supply risk.     

"有序"开采:北方地区地下水资源利用中两难选择的途径

北方干旱、半干旱地区地下水超采严重，水资源供需矛盾突出。为探索一条地下水合理开发利用的途径．本文提出了“有序”开采的思路：在来来几十年内．政府部门应根据人口，经济发展规划提出地下水资源需求量的控制计划．并给下属各地区下达取水配额。使储存资源的消耗处于有计划和监控范围内。有序开采应分阶段实现：第一阶段应以抑侧超采量的过快增长为目标；第二阶段应以需水总量的下降为目标；第三阶段应实现总需水量低于地下水系统补给资源量，使数十年超采造成的储存资源亏空逐年得以偿还。“有序”开采应注意三点：①超采必须限制在有限时间内；②开采活动应在政府的严格控制之下。任何超过计划配额的取水行为都是不允许的；③开采量和总需水量的下降，必须以节水为前提。发达国家的需水量变化经历证明。通过“有序”开采实现北方地区地下水可持续利用是可行的．     

长距离输煤管道储浆罐与石油储罐对比研究

对比研究长距离输煤管道储浆罐与石油储罐搅拌设计特点、罐顶设计特点、消防安全设施特点。经分析可知,长距离输煤管道储浆罐宜选用推进式搅拌器,罐壁上设置导流结构,宜采用固定顶、锥顶,设置简单消防安全设施,宜选用难燃保温材料;石油储罐优先选用旋转喷射式搅拌器,罐内油品进行定期搅拌,采用浮顶,大型的一般选用外浮顶,需设置完善消防安全设施。     

A CFD based explosion risk analysis methodology using time varying release rates in dispersion simulations

A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study.