REGIONAL FLOOD EQUATIONS FOR THE PROVINCES OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC1

ABSTRACT: When nonparametric frequency analysis was performed on 183 stations from Ontario and Quebec, unimodal and multimodal maximum annual flood density functions were discovered. In order to determine generating mechanisms, a monthly partitioning of the annual maximum floods was undertaken. The timing of the floods revealed that the unimodal distributions reflected a single flood generating mechanism while the multi-modal densities reflected two or more mechanisms. Based on the division of the flood series by mechanisms, nine homogeneous regions were delineated. L-moment distributional homogeneity tests along with smaller standard errors for the regional equations supported the delineation.     

THE FLOOD HAZARD AND DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Literature on the flood hazard/residential land market relationship is full of contradictory findings, many of which are counter-intuitive to the belief that flooding has a negative impact on house prices. This research advances a conceptual framework through which these relationships might be re-examined. Based on the expected utility model, the theoretical framework integrates the economic notion of capitalization with spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood hazard. Four communities with different flood regimes are used to test the effect of flooding on the residential real estate market. Results show that, (1) there is an identifiable relationship between characteristics of the flood hazard and changes in house values; (2) the length of the recovery period is dependent on characteristics and expectations of flooding, attributes of the real estate market, and availability of capital to fuel recovery; and (3) dynamics of the urban market and spatial extent of the flood hazard influence these relationships. Further research is now necessary to examine these findings under different spatial, temporal, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions.     

1993年江西省洪涝灾害分析

１９９３年江西省发生了较严重的洪涝灾害。本文阐述了灾情，从自然因素和人为因素两个方面，分析了造成洪涝灾害的原因；并对今后如何搞好江西省洪涝灾害减灾，提出若干看法与建议。     

OPTIMAL IDENTIFICATION OF MUSKINGUM ROUTING COEFFICIENTS1

Traditionally, identification of the Muskingum routing coefficients has been based on observations of the linearity of a loop formed by graphically plotting a forward and a reverse path. This graphical procedure is time-consuming and may not minimize the error of estimation. A procedure was developed to improve the drawbacks of the graphical method. This procedure calls for (a) the use of least square regression on the forward and reverse paths to determine their respective slopes, and (b) the use of statistical t-test to evaluate the hypothesis that these two slopes are equal. The computational procedure is repeated, using incremental values of the flow weighting coefficient, x. A graph of the computed t-value versus x can be constructed. The optimal value of x, as read from the graph, occurs at the minimum computed t-value. The procedure has been demonstrated superior to the graphical method for three illustrative examples, resulting in a reduction of the error squares by factors ranging from 5 to 6.     

JUSTIFICATION FOR A REDUCTION IN THE CREST-STAGE GAGE PROGRAM IN LOUISIANA1

The crest-stage gage program in Louisiana was evaluated to determine if the data were adequate for use in developing regional flood-frequency equations and to determine if any crest-stage gage stations could be discontinued. An abundance of data at many crest-stage gage stations and a lack of data for urban areas and flat-slope areas indicated a need for a shift in the number, type, and locations of gages. Correlations and comparisons of annual peak discharges and watershed characteristics of 96 existing stations resulted in the elimination of 72 stations and the addition of one new station, reducing the total network to 25 stations that could be used for future flood-frequency analyses. The adequacy of the reduced network for development and verification of regional flood-frequency equations was tested by comparing a set of regional flood-frequency equations developed using data from the full network with a set developed using data from the reduced network. The results indicate that the crest-stage gage network can be reduced to 25 stations and still provide adequate information for future flood-frequency analyses.     

USE OF RADAR TO DERWE A STORM INTENSITY-DURATION CURVE1

ABSTRACT: Rainstorms which exceed the design capacity of conveyance systems and cause extensive damage to structures and property, occur frequently in Alberta. After such a severe storm, an early and quick assessment of the storm's location and magnitude and the corresponding frequency for various duration (storm intensity-duration curve) is often required to estimate the damage. The storm intensity-duration curve is produced with information obtained from a sparse network of recording raingages, thus, creating a high degree of uncertainty in the result. Short-duration precipitation is usually quite variable in Alberta; hencea very dense network of recording precipitation stations would be required to provide precise measurements of the storm intensity-duration curve at all locations. Such a dense network does not exist in Alberta; it would be very expensive to install, maintain, and thus difficult to justify financially. One solution for obtaining a large amount of closely spaced in-intensity-duration values is to use weather radar. Using weather radar data, intensity-duration curves could be produced routinely for any set of prespecified locations. The radar data thus have the potential for facilitating the identification of the return period of rainfall events quickly, cheaply, and precisely when the long-term intensity-duration curves are available. As a pilot project to demonstrate the feasibility of the method and the potential of the radar data, computer software was developed to derive from archived radar data, intensity-duration values for up to a 2,500 2 area for a given storm.     

A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FLOOD INDUCED CHANGES IN URBAN LAND VALUES1

ABSTRACT: By integrating literature from flood hazard research and urban economics a theoretical structure is developed to explain changes in residential land values following flood events. The negative aspects of the flood hazard are shown to be capitalized in the value of the property. It is further suggested that land values (i.e., capitalization) will vary both spatially across the floodplain and temporally depending on the frequency, severity and spatial characteristics of the flood event. Previous work in this area has not addressed the capitalization process explicitly and has not specifically examined the ability of the land market to recover. This may account for the contradictory findings in the published literature.     

SOME GEOMORPHIC RELATIONSHIPS AND HYDROGRAPH ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: First order drainage channels originate when the tractive force exerted by flowing water is sufficient to move surface sediment. The amount of runoff available to move sediment is a function of geologic and climatic characteristics. An experimental analysis showed that soils derived from fine grained rocks had lower infiltration rates and higher runoff volume than soils derived from coarser grained rocks in a semi-arid climate. Root density and penetration increased in a more humid climate and increased infiltration rates. The number of first order channels was inversely proportional to the infiltration capacity of the soil. Each first order channel acts as a source area for surface runoff. The distribution of first order channel distances from the gage determines the timing of the delivery of water to the gage. A comparison of the frequency histogram of first order channel distances for drainage basins in Pennsylvania and their hydxographs of runoff from general storms showed marked similarity. This close correspondence indicated the shape of the surface runoff hydrograph and was largely controlled by the distribution of first order channel distances.     

CAUSES OF PEAK FLOWS IN NORTHWESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Both catchment experiments and a review of hydrologic processes suggest a varying effect of forest harvest on the magnitude of peak flows according to the cause of those peak flows. In northwestern Montana and Northeastern Idaho, annual maximum flows can result from spring snowmelt, rain, mid-winter rain-on-snow, or rain-on-spring-snowmelt. Meteorologic and physical data were used to determine the cause of annual maximum flows in six basins which had the necessary data and were smaller than 150 mi². Rain-on-spring-snowmelt was the most frequent cause of annual maximum flows in all six basins, although there was a strong gradient in the magnitude and cause of peak flows from southwest to northeast. Less frequent mid-winter rain-on-snow events caused the largest flows on record in four basins. Mid-winter rain-on-snow should be distinguished from rain-on-spring-snowmelt because of differences in seasonal timing, the relative contributions of rain vs. snowmelt, and the projected effects of forest harvest. The effects of mixed flood populations on the flood-frequency curve varied from basin to basin. Annual maximum daily flows could not be reliably predicted from rainfall and snowmelt data.     

城市防洪工程风险决策方法

本文着重讨论了与城市防洪工程决策制定密切相关的几个问题：①城市防洪工程设计标准的确定；②现有防洪工程的性能评估，③最优防洪工程对策的确定等，并在风险分析的基础上，给出了解决上述问题的方法。所得结论可为城市防洪工程决策的制定提供较为科学的理论依据。