Fault propagation behavior study and root cause reasoning with dynamic Bayesian network based framework

The Bhopal disaster was a gas leak incident in India, considered the world's worst industrial disaster happened around process facilities. Nowadays the process facilities in petrochemical industries have becoming increasingly large and automatic. There are many risk factors with complex relationships among them. Unfortunately, some operators have poor access to abnormal situation management experience due to the lack of knowledge. However these interdependencies are seldom accounted for in current risk and safety analyses, which also belonged to the main factor causing Bhopal tragedy. Fault propagation behavior of process system is studied in this paper, and a dynamic Bayesian network based framework for root cause reasoning is proposed to deal with abnormal situation. It will help operators to fully understand the relationships among all the risk factors, identify the causes that lead to the abnormal situations, and consider all available safety measures to cope with the situation. Examples from a case study for process facilities are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. It also provides a method to help us do things better in the future and to make sure that another such terrible accident never happens again.     

Understanding the sources and effects of abandoned,lost, and discarded fishing gear on marine turtles in northern Australia

Globally, 6.4 million tons of fishing gear are lost in the oceans annually. This gear (i.e., ghost nets), whether accidently lost, abandoned, or deliberately discarded, threatens marine wildlife as it drifts with prevailing currents and continues to entangle marine organisms indiscriminately. Northern Australia has some of the highest densities of ghost nets in the world, with up to 3 tons washing ashore per kilometer of shoreline annually. This region supports globally significant populations of internationally threatened marine fauna, including 6 of the 7 extant marine turtles. We examined the threat ghost nets pose to marine turtles and assessed whether nets associated with particular fisheries are linked with turtle entanglement by analyzing the capture rates of turtles and potential source fisheries from nearly 9000 nets found on Australia's northern coast. Nets with relatively larger mesh and smaller twine sizes (e.g., pelagic drift nets) had the highest probability of entanglement for marine turtles. Net size was important; larger nets appeared to attract turtles, which further increased their catch rates. Our results point to issues with trawl and drift‐net fisheries, the former due to the large number of nets and fragments found and the latter due to the very high catch rates resulting from the net design. Catch rates for fine‐mesh gill nets can reach as high as 4 turtles/100 m of net length. We estimated that the total number of turtles caught by the 8690 ghost nets we sampled was between 4866 and 14,600, assuming nets drift for 1 year. Ghost nets continue to accumulate on Australia's northern shore due to both legal and illegal fishing; over 13,000 nets have been removed since 2005. This is an important and ongoing transboundary threat to biodiversity in the region that requires attention from the countries surrounding the Arafura and Timor Seas. Entender las Fuentes y Efectos de Equipo de Pesca Abandonado, Perdido y Desechado sobre las Tortugas Marinas del Atlántico Norte     

Species Extinction in the Marine Environment: Tasmania as a Regional Example of Overlooked Losses in Biodiversity

Abstract:  We used Tasmania as a case example to question the consensus that few marine species have recently become extinct or are approaching extinction. Threats to marine and estuarine species—primarily in the form of climate change, invasive species, fishing, and catchment discharges—are accelerating, fully encompass species ranges, and are of sufficient magnitude to cause extinction. Our ignorance of declining biodiversity in the marine environment largely results from an almost complete lack of systematic broad-scale sampling and an overreliance on physicochemical data to monitor environmental trends. Population declines for marine species approaching extinction will generally go unnoticed because of the hidden nature of their environment and lack of quantitative data.     

浅析成本与市价孰低法

本文简要阐述了成本与市价孰低法,通过对该种方法的优缺点的讨论和评价,提出了在我国暂不推行该种计价方法,为以后能与国际惯列保持一致,并提出了相应的简便易行的对策。     

Fishing sustainability via inclusion of man in predator-prey models: A case study in Lago Preto, Manacapuru, Amazonas

We modeled a fishery's system with two types of fishermen, commercial and subsistence fishermen, who exploit the fish stock at the Amazonian floodplain lakes. In the first model, we combined the Lotka-Volterra equations with Verhulst's Logistic model, by inserting hydrological cycle oscillations. The second model was based on the equations proposed by Berryman, which reflect the predator's functional response in relation to the prey's population behavior, taking into account the hydrological cycle. In both models, commercial fishermen and local direct consumers (called riverside dwellers - riverines - in the model), were considered the only predators acting upon fishing stocks. Primary data were collected in 48 riverside homes throughout 2006. The total number of interviewees corresponds to 69.6% of the universe of homes in the community defined as study area. The riverines were the predators that showed capacity to eliminate the opponent predators (commercial fishermen). The best scenery obtained regarding the number of prey, was the one that showed only commercial fishermen in the region. On the other hand, the simulations show that the coexistence is possible among predators, and between predators and their prey. The seasonal model with functional response provides a better response in relation to the system's current situation and to the established modeling conditions than the Lotka-Volterra seasonal model. The seasonal model with functional response also showed a better response pattern in all scenarios, with oscillations taking place more gradually, both for variations associated with the flooding pulse and for relations between predators and prey.     

Sustainable energy generation using hybrid energy system for remote hilly rural area in India

Hybrid energy systems are renewable energy system combined in a complementary fashion to ensure dependable power supply at competitive cost. Diesel generators (DGs) are also added here as a back-up source of supply. For remote areas far from a transmission grid, these systems can provide a reliable and cost-effective supply. Addition of DG could instigate environmental pollution in such remote unpolluted areas. In the present work, optimal sizing of hybrid energy system has been attempted for a remote village cluster of Uttarakhand (India) to make available desired power supply at minimum environmental effluence. Hybrid Optimization Model for Electrical Renewable (HOMER) software from National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA has been employed to attain the objective. The software offered several feasible systems, ranked on the basis of net present cost (NPC). All such systems are further analysed for emissions they have made in the environment. Hence, the optimal system fulfilling the criteria of minimal environmental degradation with sufficiently minimum NPC has been searched for. In the present work, the most appropriate system offered on the basis of NPC is the one which has five wind turbines (10 kW each), one DG (65 kW) and 25 batteries (6 V, 6.94 kW h each). The NPC of the system is $1,252,018, whereas its initial capital cost and levelised cost of energy (COE) are $94,233 and $0.292/kW h, respectively. After further analysis of all the feasible systems on the basis of environmental effluence, the most feasible system explored is the one which has minimal emissions of various pollutants such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, particulate matter, sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxide. The system has been obtained on a compromised NPC of $1,270,921 with a capital cost of $148,133 and COE of $0.296/kW h. Components of the system include five wind turbines (10 kW), a 9 kW PV panel and a 65 kW DG along with 30 batteries (6 V, 6.94 kW h each). The system so obtained would prove to be a feasible, optimally sized and sustainable power supply alternative for remote unelectrified hilly rural area.     

Oasis land-use change and its effects on the oasis eco-environment in Keriya Oasis,China

Land-use change in oases of arid zones play a significant role in the sustainable development and stability of oases. This paper presents a typical case of successful efforts to mitigate land-use change, its drivers and effects on the oasis eco-environment at Keriya Oasis in the western arid zone of China using remotely-sensed data, official statistics, and data collected by field investigation. Mathematical models were developed to quantify important elements related to land-use change, including net change and total change. The results indicate that: (1) approximately 17% of land-use types of Keriya Oasis changed between 1991 and 2002; (2) socioeconomic development, climate change, and economic polices contributed to land-use change in the oasis; (3) inappropriate human activities were the main cause of land-use change and eco-environmental degradation in the oasis; and (4) the stability of the oasis is threatened by land-use change and unexpected eco-environmental changes in the oasis and oasis–desert ecotone. The study suggests irrational human activity in arid zones, and that caution should be exercised to maintain stability and sustainable development of oases.     

Modeling Carbon and Water Budgets in the Lushi Basin with Biome-BGC

Abstract

In this article, annual evapotranspiration (ET) and net primary productivity (NPP) of four types of vegetation were estimated for the Lushi basin, a subbasin of the Yellow River in China. These four vegetation types include: deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needle leaf forest, dwarf shrub and grass. Biome-BGC—a biogeochemical process model was used to calculate annual ET and NPP for each vegetation type in the study area from 1954 to 2000. Daily microclimate data of 47 years monitored by Lushi meteorological station was extrapolated to cover the basin using MT-CLIM, a mountain microclimate simulator. The output files of MT-CLIM were used to feed Biome-BGC. We used average ecophysiological values of each type of vegetation supplied by Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG) in the University of Montana as input ecophysiological constants file. The estimates of daily NPP in early July and annual ET on these four biome groups were compared respectively with field measurements and other studies. Daily gross primary production (GPP) of evergreen needle leaf forest measurements were very close to the output of Biome-BGC, but measurements of broadleaf forest and dwarf shrub were much smaller than the simulation result. Simulated annual ET and NPP had a significant correlation with precipitation, indicating precipitation is the major environmental factor affecting ET and NPP in the study area. Precipitation also is the key climatic factor for the interannual ET and NPP variations.     

Transaction of Marine Fishing Right: Theoretical Analysis

Abstract

The difference between fishermen’s fishing catch and the optimal fishing catch is the basic reason for the transaction of marine fishing rights (TMFR). The effects of productive cost, non-productive cost, use-cost, transaction cost, productive revenue and non-productive revenue on the TMFR and the optimal fishing catch are analyzed. This paper draws following conclusions: the non-productive revenue has a positive effect on the TMFR, and other factors, such as non-productive cost, use-cost and transaction cost, have a negative effect; the TMFR will promote the resource allocation; the high transaction cost may affect the implementation of TMFR.