模拟气候变化对沈阳城市树木光合固碳能力的影响

以生长在沈阳市区内的银杏为试材,使用开顶箱模拟法对倍增CO2浓度（700μmol/mo）l和正常空气CO2浓度（≈350μmol/mo）l条件下,银杏生长参数、叶面积指数、不同天气中净光合速率日变化进行了初步研究,探讨了高浓度CO2对单株银杏光合固碳能力的影响。结果表明：CO2浓度增高可以显著提高银杏枝条的生长量和银杏的叶面积指数。经高浓度CO2处理后,银杏不同天气下光合速率日变化趋势与对照一致,即晴天为双峰曲线,多云天气为单峰曲线,但净光合速率显著高于对照（P〈0.001）。由于净光合速率和叶面积指数升高,高浓度CO2也显著提高了单株银杏的固碳释氧能力（P〈0.01）,晴天比对照提高了119.5%,阴天提高了175.4%。     

基于响应曲面模型的多元复合体系中沉积物吸附阿特拉津的规律

文章建立了阿特拉津（AT）、铜（Cu）、镉（Cd）和马拉硫磷（Ma）四元复合体系中沉积物吸附阿特拉津的BP神经网络模型,模型训练集、验证集、预测集的均方差分别为0.070 3、0.336 0、和0.195 0,模型输入数据与其模拟值相关系数r2=0.841 6。利用所建立的BP神经网络模型构建多元复合体系中沉积物吸附AT的中心复合实验设计并绘制响应曲面模型,结果显示,响应曲面模型可以直观反映多元复合体系中各因素间影响AT吸附的交互作用,AT×Ma的交互作用最大,而除Cu×Cd外,其他两两因素之间的交互作用均呈显著效应,其中,AT×Ma、AT×Cd和Cu×Ma对阿特拉津的吸附产生协同作用,而AT×Cu和Cd×Ma则产生拮抗作用,交互作用占AT吸附量的60.28%,对阿特拉津在沉积物上的吸附影响不可忽略。     

Comanagement Practices Enhance Fisheries in Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  Fishing activities worldwide have dramatically affected marine fish stocks and ecosystems. Marine protected areas (MPAs) with no-take zones may enhance fisheries, but empirical evidence of this is scant. We conducted a 4-year survey of fish catches around and within an MPA that was previously fully closed to fishing and then partially reopened under regulated comanaged fishing. In collaboration with the fishers and the MPA authority, we set the fishing effort and selected the gear to limit fishing impact on key fish predators, juvenile fish stage, and benthic communities and habitats. Within an adaptive comanagement framework, fishers agreed to reduce fishing effort if symptoms of overfishing were detected. We analyzed the temporal trends of catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of the whole species assemblages and CPUE of the four most valuable and frequent species observed inside the opened buffer zone and outside the MPA investigated. After the comanaged opening, CPUE first declined and then stabilized at levels more than twice that of catches obtained outside the MPA. Our results suggest that working closely with fishers can result in greater fisheries catches. Partial protection of coastal areas together with adaptive comanagement involving fishers, scientists, and managers can effectively achieve conservation and fishery management goals and benefit fishing communities and alleviate overfishing.     

50年长江源区域植被净初级生产力及其影响因素变化特征

基于长江源区1959—2008年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、降水量、风速和日照时数等气候要素资料,应用修订的Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了50年植被净初级生产力,分析其年际和年代际变化特征及其主要气象因子的影响。结果表明：1959—2008年间,研究区年降水量呈增加趋势,降水量变化曲线线性拟合倾向率每10年为5.685~13.047 mm,春夏季增幅较大;年平均气温呈极显著上升趋势,气温变化曲线线性拟合倾向率每10年在0.240~0.248℃之间,增温率以秋冬季最大;最大蒸散呈增加趋势,年最大蒸散变化曲线线性拟合倾向率每10年在5.073~5.366 mm,春季增幅最大;地表湿润指数也呈增加趋势,年地表湿润指数变化曲线线性拟合倾向率每10年为0.013~0.020,冬季增幅最大,在10年周期时间频率附近,出现了6~8个干湿交替期,20世纪90年代之后为偏湿期,在低频区,1998—2005年有偏干振荡;近50年年NPP变化呈显著上升趋势,NPP变化曲线线性拟合倾向率每10年在97.901~197.01 kg.hm-2之间,2001—2008年NPP较高。影响长江源区NPP变化的主要气候因子是降水量、最大蒸散量和平均最低气温。     

基于随机Petri网的跨组织应急协同模型构建

突发事件应急处置需要公安、消防、医疗、交通等多个组织进行跨组织协同合作,以此实现跨部门的统一指挥、快速反应的应急响应行动,为城市突发事件应对、城市公共安全提供强有力的保障。利用随机Petri网的构建跨组织应急协同流程,根据确定可能出现的状态集,同构其相应的马尔科夫链;以汶川地震为例,根据可能出现状态的稳态概率及相关数学方法分析其均衡状态和变动规律,对应急响应的协同效果进行分析,根据评估结果提出事前应急协同控制与改进的措施,加强事前应急演练与培训,为提高突发事件应急响应协调能力提供理论支持。     

臭氧胁迫对水稻的光合损伤与施氮的缓解作用

利用稻/麦O3-FACE（Ozone-free air controlled enrichment）试验平台,以杂交籼稻汕优63（SY63）和常规籼稻扬稻6（YD6）两个耐性不同的水稻（Oryza sativa L.）品种为材料,根据净光合速率和叶绿素荧光参数指标,研究分蘖期和抽穗期增施氮（N）肥对O3胁迫导致的水稻光合损伤的缓解作用。结果表明：（1）增施N肥可以减轻O3对SY63和YD6净光合速率（Pn）的影响,且前期增施N肥效果更显著。（2）O3升高条件下SY63和YD6的最大光量子效率（Fv/Fm）、实际光量子效率（ΦPSⅡ）和光化学猝灭（qP）有下降趋势,PSⅡ所吸收光能用于光化学部分（P%）减少,热耗散部分（D%）增加;提高施N量可减小O3引起的叶绿素荧光参数的变化幅度,有利于提高光合效率,其中增施分蘖肥的效果较理想。（3）大气O3体积分数升高会降低SY63和YD6的N素总积累量,增施N肥后有上升趋势,且前期施N肥增幅较大。总之增施氮肥在一定程度上可缓解O3对SY63和YD6的光合损伤,且在水稻生长前期增施效果更好。     

渔业配额制度的起源、特点及展望

渔业配额制度是在渔业资源过度捕捞所导致的渔业危机和传统的投入控制管理失效的历史背景下,基于渔业资源生态特性而构建的一种产出控制的渔业管理模式。它是在总可捕量基础上发展起来的,并在冰岛、 新西兰等国家得以成功实施。该制度具有专属性、 可转让性、 激励性等外在法律特征。学者对于配额制度的法律特性持不同观点,认同其准物权的特性是主流观点。资源的生物特性以及制度的实质内涵告诉我们,无论是国际配额还是国内配额,制度要想取得实效,必须牢牢遵循不得超越总可捕量的共同义务这一要旨,通过落实有限准入、 加强监管等多种手段来保障这种共同义务的履行,才能实现资源的永续利用。     

基于遥感信息和净初级生产力的天然橡胶估产模型

建立基于MODIS数据的天然橡胶净初级生产力遥感估算模型,利用2009年生长季(4—12月)250 m分辨率的MODIS数据和气象数据估算海南阳江农场天然橡胶的生长季净初级生产力, 通过天然橡胶的干物质分配率估算阳江农场天然橡胶的产胶潜力。用以树位为单元的地面实际干胶产量与已得到的天然橡胶林产胶潜力进行回归分析,建立天然橡胶干胶产量的估测模型。利用估产模型对阳江农场2010年7月的干胶产量进行模拟,用同期实际干胶产量对估产模型进行精度验证与实用性评价,结果显示7月估产模型均方根误差RMSE为1.78 g·m^-2,相对均方根误差RMSE_r为18.25%。研究表明,基于遥感信息和净初级生产力的天然橡胶估产模型具有较好的产量估测效果。     

PTP网络系统在环境工程设计中的应用

本文简要介绍了ＰＴＰ网络系统的组成,并结合开发中心的实际情况详细说明了ＣＡＤ系统在环境工程设计中的具体应用。     

An individual-based stochastic hazard model of eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) migration with spatially and temporally varying fishing effort

This paper describes an individual-based stochastic model of eastern king prawn migration along the eastern Australian coast. Migration is treated as one-dimensional diffusion with drift. Capture of a prawn is seen as a failure event driven by movement through a spatially and temporally variable fishing mortality hazard. This hazard is combined with a uniform natural mortality hazard. We use a Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters by comparing expected numbers of tag-returns predicted from the model with previously published tag-release data. As the previous study used a discrete compartmental model, with compartments corresponding to zones of constant fishing effort, we used the same zones and fishing effort in our comparison. The marginal distribution of yield in each zone per single recruit is determined, providing more information compared with the deterministic approach to yield-per-recruit. Using our model we also derive the constant fishing mortality rate equivalent to a spatially variable fishing mortality rate in its impact on the proportion of prawns surviving the migration to reach spawning grounds. Determination of this proportion could contribute significantly to a sustainability assessment of the fishery. It is demonstrated using the AIC that better fits to the data of the previous study and greater parsimony are obtained using our model than were found in the deterministic compartmental analysis of that study. This improvement results from the ability of our model to account separately for average speed of movement and average dispersal rate, whereas in the previous deterministic compartmental model, movement is governed by just one parameter. Our individual-based model includes a parameter that explicitly accounts for dispersal of prawns in migration, so it can distinguish between speed effects and dispersal effects in the data. It also models both types of mortality as processes distinct from those of movement. This enables it to better separate movement and mortality effects compared to the compartmental approach, in which movement and mortality are treated as similar departure processes from a compartment. This separation reduces confounding of movement and mortality effects when parameters are estimated.