重庆酸雨对陆地生态系统的影响和控制对策——中日酸雨合作研究总结

中日合作研究项目：酸沉降对陆地生态系统的影响及其控制对策的研究,于１９９０至１９９５年期间在中国重庆地区进行。本文是该项目最终研究结果主要方面的报导,包括大气污染和酸雨的状况,酸沉降对池塘、森林和土壤生态系统的影响以及大气污染和酸雨控制对策。该项研究为今后酸沉降生态监测的研究,打下了有力的基础。     

突发事件下多种信息交互传播的动力机制与调控策略

针对突发事件下多种信息共存情境中信息交互传播的调控问题,首先界定了该情境中“涌现→传播”过程的组成要素,建立了信息交互关系框架及其系统动力学模型;其次,通过设计和仿真基础情景,将仿真结果与案例进行对比,检验模型的模拟趋势与现实状况的一致性;最后,通过设计和仿真实验情景,考查决策者的关键可控因素对系统演化的影响。研究结果表明:官方渠道所发布信息的可信度、平均个体传播量及群体的立场认知水平,与相信和传播官方渠道信息的人数均正相关,而与相信和传播民间渠道信息的人数均负相关;对各群体数量演化影响的显著性而言,官方渠道信息的平均个体传播量最高,官方渠道信息的可信度次之,群体的立场认知水平较低。     

徐州市自然保护区建设策略研究

在大量野外工作的基础上 ,分析了徐州市的自然保护区建设现状 ,提出了建设策略     

Strategies used to Guide the Design and Implementation of a National River Monitoring Programme in South Africa

This article explores the strategies that were, and are being, used to facilitate the transition from scientific developmentto operational application of the South African River Health Programme (RHP). Theoretical models from the field of the management of technology are used to provide insight into the dynamics that influence the relationship between the creation and application of environmental programmes, and the RHP in particular. Four key components of the RHP design are analysed,namely the (a) guiding team, (b) concepts, tools and methods, (c) infra-structural innovations and (d) communication. These key components evolved over three broad life stages of the programme, which are called the design, growth and anchoring stages.     

碳关税对中国出口贸易的影响及应对策略

碳关税是美国提出的针对国际贸易中高能耗进口产品征税的一种新型绿色贸易壁垒。从表面上看,碳关税的提出是为了缓解全球气候变暖的现实,促进全球贸易的公平竞争。实质上,碳关税的提出是美国国内政治经济博弈的结果,其目的是为了夺取世界经济新的话语权,同时也是为了制衡中国在内的发展中国家。碳关税对我国出口的影响机制有二:第一,碳关税产生的价格效应促使出口商品成本上升,出口量下降,造成出口国净福利损失。第二,长期来看,碳关税的环境规制效应会促使出口企业实施创新、改进效率,企业竞争力增强。但是,就短期来说,由于我国尚不具备"波特假说"成立的前提条件,碳关税会促使成本上升,出口产品竞争力下降。本文系统分析了我国出口商品结构和地理方向,指出碳关税的推出将对我国当前出口贸易形成严峻的挑战,长期看将有利于我国市场结构、产业结构和出口结构的改善。基于以上的分析,文章提出了政府"环境外交"、逐步开征国内碳税、构建绿色制造体系等政策建议。     

中国低碳城市发展模式与行动策略

建设低碳城市是促进节能减排和经济社会持续发展的重要战略举措,成为未来城市发展的重要导向和路径选择.从低碳城市发展重要性和紧迫性入手,在立足基本国情的基础上设计了低碳城市发展愿景.结合城市化快速推进预期和经济社会发展需求,分阶段提出了低碳城市发展目标.从总体模式、指导理念、基本思路、主要领域等对我国低碳城市发展模式进行了构想.在此基础上,提出我国低碳城市发展的实施步骤和行动策略.研究认为,我国低碳城市发展模式应选择“C”模式,以低碳发展为主导方向,以节能减排为发展方式,以低碳生产和低碳生活为主要方法.按照控源、减碳、增汇的基本思路,依靠理念创新、技术创新和制度创新,在低碳产业、低碳能源、低碳技术以及低碳生活等领域,通过构建低碳城市规划理论框架、建立低碳城市评价标准和体系、加快相关政策规章与制度建设、开展城市碳交易试点以及加强监督指导等措施,立足国情、统筹兼顾,分步骤、分阶段有序推进低碳城市发展.     

我国珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化的对策探讨

基于气候变化下部分珍稀濒危物种脆弱性分析,初步提出了适应对策,探讨了部分物种适应措施。气候变化下,珍稀濒危物种脆弱性表现在物种分布范围减少、破碎化和失去原分布范围、丰富度下降、种群数量减少、物种灭绝、栖息地退化或消失等。珍稀濒危物种适应气候变化需要分析物种自然适应机制,加强就地保护,增加种群数量,开展迁地和遗传保护,减少其它干扰,保护和恢复栖息地,建立自然保护区适应对策等。每个物种需要分析目前濒危程度和气候变化下的脆弱性来提出适应对策。     

Integrated testing and intelligent assessment—new challenges under REACH

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Due to a number of drawbacks associated with the previous regime for the assessment of new and existing chemicals, the European Union established a new regulation concerning the registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals (REACH). All relevant industrial chemicals must now be assessed. Instead of the authorities, industry itself is responsible for the risk assessment. To achieve better and more efficient assessments while reducing animal testing, all information-standard, non-standard and non-testing-has to be used in an integrated manner. To meet these challenges, the current technical guidance documents for risk assessment of new and existing chemicals had to be updated and extended considerably. This was done by experts in a number of REACH Implementation Projects. This paper presents the most relevant results of the expert Endpoint Working Group on Aquatic Toxicity in order to illustrate the change of paradigm in the future assessment of hazards to the aquatic environment by chemical substances. MAIN FEATURES AND CHALLENGES: REACH sets certain minimum data requirements in order to achieve a high level of protection for human health and the environment. It encourages the assessor to use alternative information instead of or in addition to standard one. This information has to be equivalent to the standard information requirement and adequate to draw overall conclusions with respect to the regulatory endpoints classification and labelling, persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) assessment and predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC) derivation. The main task of the expert working group was to develop guidance on how to evaluate the toxicity of a substance based on integration of information from different sources and of various degrees of uncertainty in a weight of evidence approach. INTEGRATED TESTING AND INTELLIGENT ASSESSMENT: In order to verify the equivalence and adequacy of different types of information, a flexible sequence of steps was proposed, covering characterisation of the substance, analysis of modes of action, identification of possible analogues, evaluation of existing in vivo and in vitro testing data as well as of QSAR results. Finally, all available data from the different steps have to be integrated to come to an overall conclusion on the toxicity of the substance. This weight of evidence approach is the basis for the development of integrated testing strategies (ITS), in that the available evidence can help to determine subsequent testing steps and is essential for an optimal assessment. Its flexibility helps to meet the different requirements for drawing conclusions on the endpoints classification and labelling, PNEC derivation as well as PBT assessment. The integration of all kinds of additional information in a multi-criteria assessment reduces the uncertainties involved with extrapolation to the ecosystem level. The weight of evidence approach is illustrated by practical examples. CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: REACH leads to higher challenges in order to make sound decisions with fewer resources, i.e. to move away from extensive standard testing to an intelligent substance-tailored approach. Expert judgement and integrated thinking are key elements of the weight of evidence concept and ITS, potentially leading to better risk assessments. Important sub-lethal effects such as endocrine disruption, which are not covered by the current procedure, can be considered. Conclusions have to be fully substantiated: Risk communication will be an important aspect of future assessments.     

Revolution or inch-by-inch? Campaign approaches on climate change by environmental groups

Climate change is a significant environmental, social and environmental problem that has been identified by scientists in consensus internationally. The Australian Government’s response is considered by environmental non-government organisations (NGOs) to be inadequate. NGOs are ‘change agents’ of society, and in this role they are agitating to influence political decision-making on climate change response. This paper outlines the campaign strategies being used by Australian NGOs to attract public and political attention to the issue of climate change. Using seven NGOs as case studies, the archival materials of these organisations were accessed and analysed. Current academic and other literature also was used to reflect on their effectiveness. Four campaign themes and, within these, fifteen activities were identified. The results indicate that the notion of whether NGOs are undertaking an ‘revolutionary’ or ‘incremental’ approach, or any other narrow strategic approach put forward by various scholars is too simple for analysing campaigns: none of the NGOs appear to intentionally favour one type of strategy. The question raised by this finding is whether the NGOs’ current ‘multi-strategic’ approach is effective. This research contributes to filling the information gap with regard to NGO campaign strategies on environmental issues, and highlights the need for further research.     

莆田市气象灾害及减灾对策研究

根据近17年的莆田市气候影响评价资料,结合实地调查,对莆田市台风、暴雨、冰雹、干旱、寒潮等主要气象灾害的基本特点进行了分析。研究表明,近17年莆田市危害最大的气象灾害是台风灾害,其次为洪涝灾害,揭示了几种主要气象灾害之间的相互关系,并提出相应的减灾对策。