中美两国经济发展与铜消费量对比研究

发达国家的发展过程表明,经济增长与铜消费量密切相关。本文由IPAT方程推导了铜消费指标与GDP间的关系式,得出GDP的年增长率（g）的单位GDP铜消费量的年下降率（t）是影响铜消费量变化的两个重要参数。给出了中、美两国铜消费指标与GDP间的关系曲线;中国1960-2004年间单位GDP的铜消费量并未形成明显的上升或下降趋势;美国1941-2004年间单位GDP铜消费量的变化总体上逐年降低,1941年为17.80kg/10^4USD,2003年为2.56kg/10^4USD,单位GDP的铜消费量降低近7倍。对应不同的单位GDP铜消费量年下降率的假设,估计了未来25年内中国经济增长与铜消费指标间的关系以及单位GDP铜消费量降低的倍数。     

Realistic evaluation as a new way to design and evaluate occupational safety interventions

Recent debates regarding the criteria for evaluating occupational health and safety interventions have focused on the need for incorporating qualitative elements and process evaluation, in addition to attempting to live up to the Cochrane criteria. Reflecting fundamental epistemological conflicts and shortcomings of the Cochrane criteria in evaluating intervention studies, the debate challenges the traditional (quasi-) experimental design and methodology, which are often used within safety research. This article discusses a revised ‘realistic evaluation’ approach as a way to meet these challenges.Evidence from the literature as well as examples from an integrated (leader-based/worker-based) safety intervention study (2008-2010) in a large wood manufacturing company are presented, with focus on the pros and cons of using randomised-controlled-trials and a revised realistic evaluation model.A revised realistic evaluation model is provided which includes factors such as role behaviour, leader and worker motivation, underreporting of accidents/injuries, production pressure, unplanned organisational change and accounting for multilayer effects. These can be attained through qualitative and/or quantitative methods, allowing for the use of realistic evaluation in both large and small scale studies, as well as in systematic reviews. The revised realistic evaluation model offers a promising new way of designing and evaluating occupational safety research. This model can help safety science move forward in setting qualitative and/or quantitative criteria regarding context, mechanisms and processes for single studies and for reviews. Focus is not limited to whether the expected results appear or not, but include suggestions for what works for whom, under what circumstances, in what respects and how.     

沥青涂层对桩侧摩阻力影响的试验研究

采用改进直剪仪模拟桩与土之间的滑动摩擦,研究了沥青涂层对桩侧摩阻力的影响。试验结果表明,桩侧摩阻力与土的类型、法向应力有关,随着法向应力的增长,滑动摩阻力也相应增长,且增长近似呈线性关系;在一定的法向应力下,沥青涂层对减小滑动摩阻力有一定的作用,随着法向应力的增长,沥青涂层亦会导致滑动摩阻力增加。     

关于事故发生规律的研究

为有效遏制我国目前伤亡事故的多发趋势和寻找事故发生规律,对事故发生的特点与致因进行了系统分析,建立了事故模型,运用数学方法找出了事故发生的基本规律和相互制约关系,理清了管理、物质、环境和人为因素在事故形成与发生时的相互作用与关系。对导致事故多发的机理进行了系统理论剖析,从而发现了事故规律,为安全管理与事故预防提供了理论依据。     

基于集对模型的地下工程塌方风险分析方法

为度量和监控地下工程塌方风险态势,提出一种基于集对模型的地下工程塌方风险分析方法。通过归纳地下工程塌方灾害因素,建立地下工程塌方风险的层次化结构,应用变异系数法确定风险指标的权重值;以集对分析(SPA)的同异反联系度和距离测度为基础,构建地下工程塌方风险态势监控机制及分析模型。给出地下工程塌方风险态势度量工作步骤,确定地下工程塌方灾害风险集对势、贴近度和次序关系。最后,通过对塌方风险分析样本的集对计算,为有效防范塌方灾害由潜伏性向灾变性转化提供防范重点。     

系统安全态势的马尔科夫预测模型建立及应用

基于马尔科夫链预测理论,分析研究了系统安全态势的定性与定量预测问题,建立了系统安全态势预测模型.定性预测侧重安全态势的升、降趋势分析,定量预测以系统万人死亡率为依据,划分四个安全状态,从而实现系统安全状态定量预测.定性与定量预测相互检验、相互补充.实例研究表明,马尔科夫定性与定量相结合的预测模型结构简单,计算方便,符合系统安全态势预测特征要求,是系统安全宏观管理的重要参考依据之一.     

物联网在感知矿山建设中的应用研究

感知矿山建设是当前矿山建设研究的重要领域,主要是将目前备受国家、行业和企业界重视的物联网技术应用到矿山建设中,实现矿山生产安全的全面感知。在论述物联网发展、可视化管理理念的基础上,从感知矿山建设的步骤和主要内容等角度进行分析,提出了感知矿山建设模型,为基于物联网的感知矿山建设提供理论指导。     

Good news for environmental self-regulation? Finding the right link

We investigate the stock market response to firm disclosure of positive environmental information and the link from that information to environmental outcomes. We classify environmental media releases by informational content and value relevance, and assess the abnormal stock returns of each type of event. While announcements of future environmental activities lead to the largest favorable stock market reactions, there is no guaranteed link from this type of information to environmental outcomes. Further analysis of the abnormal returns shows that the magnitude of the stock market reaction depends on firm financial characteristics across all event types rather than on firm environmental performance. Our results indicate that the ability for voluntary environmental information disclosure to induce environmental self-regulation is limited to the extent that firms are able to follow through with their announcements of planned environmental activities.     

Beyond depletion: Daily self-control motivation as an explanation of self-control failure at work

The organizational self-control literature usually applies resource perspectives that explain self-control failure at work by depletion of self-control resources. However, these perspectives neglect the role of self-control motivation. On a daily level, we examine several self-control aspects (resources, motivation, demands, and effort) as predictors of a manifestation of self-control failure at work, namely, daily counterproductive work behavior toward the organization (CWB-O). Additionally, we investigate self-control effort as a mechanism predicting the depletion of self-control resources throughout the day. We analyzed data from 155 employees in a 2-week diary study with 2 daily measurement points. Multilevel path modeling showed that self-control motivation and self-control demands, but not self-control resource depletion, predicted self-control effort. There was an indirect effect from self-control motivation on CWB-O via self-control effort but no indirect effect from self-control demands on self-control resource depletion throughout the day via self-control effort. Findings suggest that self-control motivation is a crucial factor explaining self-control failure at work and cast further doubt on the idea that exerted self-control effort is the only mechanism leading to self-control resource depletion.     

乙醇汽油对减少机动车污染排放的机理研究与分析

以93#国Ⅲ乙醇汽油(E10)、93#国Ⅲ普通汽油和93#国Ⅳ普通汽油为实验对象,对GB18352.3-2005中要求限定的CO、HC和NOx,以及颗粒物(PM)和CO2等主要污染物的排放进行了测量和对比研究,并对CO、HC、PM、NOx、CO2和苯系物等污染物的形成原因和减排机理进行了分析.和93#国Ⅲ普通汽油相比,93 #国Ⅲ乙醇汽油(E10)排放的尾气中:CO降低了19.7％,HC降低了16.4％;和93#国Ⅳ普通汽油相比,93#国Ⅲ乙醇汽油(E10)排放的尾气中:CO降低了1.8％,HC降低了12.9％,CO2降低了2.4％.研究表明,乙醇汽油在减少CO、HC、NOx、颗粒物和苯系物等有毒物质排放方面具有显著功效,使用乙醇汽油可以减少环境污染物的排放,显著改善空气质量.