基于GSPABN的拓扑结构系统状态动态分析

介绍了贝叶斯网络(BN)应用现状及其优势,引入GSPA理论,提出了基于GSPA-BN拓扑结构节点状态分析模型,讨论了节点状态联系度及其重要度表示方法,提出了BN拓扑结构节点态势概念。结果表明,以构建的锅炉缺水烧干事件的BN拓扑结构为例,得到了各根节点重要度排序;同时得到了叶节点、中间节点状态联系度及其态势等级,且中间状态的变化会对其节点态势及其等级产生一定的影响,甚至发生节点态势逆转现象,为动态了解BN拓扑结构节点态势发展奠定了理论分析依据。     

配电箱在火灾环境下的热响应特性研究

对建筑中广泛使用的低压配电箱在实际火灾条件下的导热过程进行了分析,借鉴现有规范中对排烟风机的耐温要求,估算了配电箱在280℃时需要的隔热板厚度。在一腔室内利用火源功率为700kW的油池火模拟实际火灾环境,对普通配电箱和加隔热板配电箱箱体温升特性进行了研究,分析了火灾环境温度变化对配电箱箱体、内部温度变化的影响规律,验证了配电箱保持连续工作30min的耐火设计要求。     

基于ARIMA干预模型和对比分析的安徽省“清剿火患”效果研究

为了研究"清剿火患"行动对安徽省火灾形势的抑制作用,采用ARIMA干预模型与火灾数据对比的方法对2007—2012年安徽省火灾统计数据进行了分析。2种ARIMA干预模型都能检测到"清剿火患"行动对季节调整后火灾起数时间序列的抑制效果。根据干预模型,抑制效果在"清剿火患"行动开展后第3个月时出现,火灾立即减少约300起,随后抑制效果逐渐衰减。在"清剿火患"行动开展14个月后,抑制效果几乎衰减为0。通过对比"清剿火患"期间与2009-10—2010-02、2010-10—2011-02的火灾统计数据,发现"清剿火患"行动期间的火灾起数较前两年同期的火灾起数大幅度降低,平均降幅达64%。在此基础上又分析了不同火灾原因、火灾场所和火灾起数的降低情况。对比发现,"清剿火患"期间火灾死亡人数与死亡人数不低于3人的火灾起数均降低为0。     

Plastic buckling,wrinkling and collapse behaviour of dented X80 steel line pipes under axial compression

High strength steel pipes have found increasing applications in deep high pressure offshore oil/gas lines. Damages in the form of dent are among common causes of pipeline failure. Indentation, plastic buckling and residual strength of dented normal grade steel pipes under bending, axial and combined loading have previously been addressed by a number of researchers. The plastic buckling and collapse of dented high grades steel line pipes, however, have received less previous attentions.In the current study an experimental model testing was used to evaluate the residual strength of dented X80 steel pipes under monotonic axial compression. The tubular specimens were first laterally dented by an indentor while resting on a saddle shape support. The specimens were then examined under axial compression to study the dent effects on their collapse behaviour. Numerical simulations were also used to analyse the effect of the indentor ratio, shape and alignment on the residual strength of dented steel tubes under monotonic axial compression. The results from the current study on high strength steels were also compared with semi-empirical equations available in the literature for low strength steels. It was found that these equations provide reasonable predictions for the axial residual capacity of the high strength steel pipes when the dent depths are small. With deep dents, however, they considerably underestimate the axial residual capacity of the high strength steel pipes.     

Evaluating the efficacy of alumina/carbon nanotube hybrid adsorbents in removing Azo Reactive Red 198 and Blue 19 dyes from aqueous solutions

Concerning the high volume of wastewater containing dye in Iran and its adverse effects, it is necessary to develop scientific solutions for treating these wastewaters. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of the alumina-coated multi-walled carbon nanotubes in removing the Reactive Red 198 (RR 198) and Blue 19 (RB 19) dyes. Synthetic samples including dye with different concentrations were prepared. These samples were put in contact with different contents of alumina/multi-walled carbon nanotubes, in different pH values, in different contact times, different temperatures and the presence of sodium sulfate or sodium carbonate. The optimum pH, dye concentration and temperature for removal of the two dyes was 3, 50 mg l⁻¹ and 25 °C, respectively. The optimum adsorbent dose for removal the RR 198 dye was 0.5 g l⁻¹ and for Blue 19 was 0.4 g l⁻¹. The optimum contact time for RR 198 was 150 min and RB 19 was 180 min. In this condition, maximum removal efficiency for RR 198 and RB 19 was 91.54% and 93.51%, respectively. The adsorption study was analyzed kinetically, and the results revealed that the adsorption fitted a pseudo-second order kinetic model. According to these results alumina/multi-walled carbon nanotubes can effectively remove RR 198 and RB 19 from aqueous solutions.     

电镀综合废水处理工艺研究

根据一般电镀企业排放废水的实际情况,利用一种新型无机离子交换树脂的高选择性,通过一系列条件及处理工艺研究,确定了一套先进、科学、经济和有效的电镀综合废水处理方案。处理后可实现70%废水循环利用,部分排放废水达到国家排放标准。同时,在处理过程中回收各种贵重金属,且它们有较高的纯度,可达95%以上,以便资源化再利用。该工艺既减少重金属对环境的污染,又可实现水及贵重金属的循环利用,效益显著。     

日本海洋环境监测实施情况及启示

概述了日本实施海洋环境质量监测的状况。日本开展海洋环境质量监测基本始于1970年代的初期或中期,监测地域覆盖河口、沿岸、港口和近海至200海里的专属经济区。主要包括海洋环境监测调查、公共用水域水质调查、广域综合水质调查和化学物质环境实态调查;海洋污染调查和放射能调查等。     

热颗粒和热辐射共同作用阴燃点燃松针燃料床：数值研究

建立了热颗粒和热辐射共同作用下阴燃点燃松针燃料床的二维数值模型,计算得到了热颗粒和热辐射单独点燃以及共同作用点燃的临界条件,分析了燃料床的点燃过程。与前人实验数据对比表明数值模型能够较好预测临界点燃条件。金属热颗粒单独作用时点火所需的临界温度与颗粒直径呈双曲线关系。金属热颗粒与热辐射共同作用时,临界辐射热通量呈现出随颗粒温度和直径的增加而显著减小的趋势。热辐射持续供热能有效维持表层炭氧化反应,两者共同作用下点燃危险性增加。研究同时发现,燃料含水率对共同作用下的临界辐射热通量有较大影响。     

A post‐earthquake psychopathological investigation in Armenia: methodology,summary of findings,and follow‐up

The post‐earthquake psychopathological investigation (PEPSI) was designed to probe the short‐and long‐term effects of the earthquake in northern Armenia on 7 December 1988 on survivors' mental and physical health. Four phases of this study have been conducted to date, and, overall, more than 80 per cent of a sub‐sample of 1,773 drawn from an initial cohort of 32,743 was successfully followed during 2012. This paper describes the methodology employed in the evaluation, summarises previous findings, details the current objectives, and examines the general characteristics of the sample based on the most recent follow‐up phase outcomes. Despite a significant decrease in psychopathology rates between 1990 and 2012, prevalence rates of post‐traumatic stress disorder and depression among study participants in 2012 were greater than 15 and 26 per cent, respectively. The paper also notes the strengths and limitations of the study vis‐à‐vis future research and highlights the importance and potential practical implications of similar assessments and their outcomes.     

高氟地下水形成的组态分析——以豫东平原区为例

高氟地下水的形成机理研究是目前相关理论研究的关键问题,文章在系统思想指导下将传统的水化学类型分类方法进行改进,以组态分析的方法进行形成机理研究,得出以下结论:(1)高氟地下水的形成是多因子协同作用的结果;(2)作为非线性系统,高氟地下水的形成是个多态问题,就某一个区段而言是一个"暂态",一直处于多态的变化过程中,在此过程中各个因子相互作用形成多组态;(3)Na+>Ca2+型的水化学组态的高氟率(平均51%)明显大于Na+相似文献