Objective: Most of the extensive research dedicated to identifying the influential factors of hit-and-run (HR) crashes has utilized typical maximum likelihood estimation binary logit models, and none have employed real-time traffic data. To fill this gap, this study focused on investigating factors contributing to HR crashes, as well as the severity levels of HR.
Methods: This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model.
Results: Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime.
Conclusions: This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes. 相似文献
The safety assessment of an accident in the lunar base power plant is investigated for the stability of the operation. The lunar surface reactor is modeled for this study. The accident of cooling loop failure (ACLF) is one of the important scenarios for the virtual case in the moon nuclear power plant (NPP). The newly designed lunar nuclear power reactor (LNPR) is suggested for the commercial purpose. The system dynamics (SD) is used for the simulation of the safety assessment. The cyclic variation of the lunar surface temperature can affect to the physical situation of the coolant, which is expressed by the time step. The result shows the performance possibility of the long term cooling increases slightly in the short period of the time step. The dynamical simulation of the lunar environment is performed for the conceptual design of the NPP. 相似文献
低相位噪声源是一种频率准确度、稳定度都很高且相位噪声又非常低的频率源.本文在简要着重描述了VCXO压控晶振锁相源、高频单元、低相位噪声微波倍频链、低噪声直流稳压电源等低相位噪声频率源关键部件的设计和研制过程.所研发的低相位噪声频率源的频率范围从5 MHz至20 C Hz点频输出,在100MHz频率时相噪达-176dBc... 相似文献