中国沿海区域旅游化与生态环境耦合度分析及预测

中国沿海区域旅游产业发展主要以海洋资源和环境为依托,故处理好旅游产业发展与生态环境的关系是中国沿海旅游产业实现可持续发展的基础和前提。区域旅游化程度可以反映区域旅游产业发展水平,为探求中国沿海区域旅游产业发展与生态环境之间关系的态势和规律,首先,在构建中国沿海区域旅游化程度和生态环境质量水平的指标体系的基础上,以2000—2010年沿海11省(区)统计数据为基础,运用加权主成分TOPSIS法分别对两个系统进行综合评价;其次,基于物理学中的耦合模型,对中国沿海区域旅游化程度和生态环境质量的耦合度及其协调指数进行计算,并分析它们时空格局及其演变特征;最后,基于灰色系统理论,运用GM(1,1)预测模型对中国沿海区域未来15 a中国沿海区域旅游化水平与生态环境耦合度进行预测。研究结果发现:中国沿海区域旅游产业与生态环境两个系统在2000—2010年间一直处于拮抗期,但山东省、浙江省、江苏省和广西省将在2015年前先后由低水平的拮抗期跨入良性耦合阶段,而其他省(区)将处于并将长期处于拮抗期,且天津市、辽宁省和海南省两个系统的耦合度有下降趋势。     

气温变化对西南山区流域森林水文效应影响的模拟

为了揭示气温变化对西南山区流域森林水文效应的影响,用生物物理/动态植被模型SSiB4/TRIFFID与流域地形指数水文模型TOPMODEL的耦合模型SSiB4T/TRIFFID模拟了西南山区长江上游梭磨河流域森林水文效应对气温变化的响应,分析了气温变化对植被不同演替阶段的流域总径流和总蒸发以及冠层截流蒸发、植被蒸腾和土壤蒸发的影响。结果表明,（1）梭磨河流域森林（常绿针叶林）蒸腾与草和灌木差异小,森林蒸腾潜热比草和灌木仅高1~4 W.m-2,森林冠层截留蒸发高于草和灌木,但土壤蒸发明显低于草和灌木覆盖,森林覆盖流域总蒸发低于草和灌木覆盖甚至低于裸土蒸发,因此增加了流域总径流量,但森林增加径流的作用随土壤蒸发的减小而减小。（2）气温减小1℃将通过减小森林冠层截留蒸发和蒸腾而使森林增加流域总径流量的作用增加;相反,气温增加将增加森林冠层截留蒸发和蒸腾而使森林增加总径流量的作用减小。（3）当温度增加4℃,由于森林总蒸发较草和灌木明显增加,对于较高的土壤蒸发,森林增加总径流量的作用已不明显;对于较低的土壤蒸发,森林减小了流域总径流量。     

风险地图—环境风险管理的有效新工具

中国不断发生的重大环境突发事故使得环境风险管理提上了政府的议事日程,建立有效和实用的环境风险管理体系势在必行。近年来,风险地图已成为环境风险管理中迅速崛起的新领域。风险地图不但可以探讨污染物效应的空间特征,而且可作为风险可视化的重要工具。通过调研和分析大量文献,在描述了环境风险地图的功能、重要的风险地图类型基础上,以一个城市为例展示了风险图制作流程,最后,对环境风险地图在中国的应用和发展提出了建议。     

Emergy analysis using US economic input-output models with applications to life cycles of gasoline and corn ethanol

A commonly encountered challenge in emergy analysis is the lack of transformity data for many economic products and services. To overcome this challenge, emergy analysts approximate the emergy input from the economy via a single emergy/money ratio for the country and the monetary price of economic inputs. This amounts to assuming homogeneity in the entire economy, and can introduce serious uncertainties in the results. This paper proposes and demonstrates the use of a thermodynamically augmented economic input-output model of the US economy for obtaining sector-specific emergy to money ratios that can be used instead of a single ratio. These ratios at the economy scale are more accurate than a single economy-wide emergy/money ratio, and can be obtained quickly for hundreds of economic products and services. Comparing sector-specific emergy/money ratios with those from conventional emergy studies indicates that the input-output model can provide reasonable estimates of transformities at least as a stop-gap measure until more detailed analysis is completed. A hybrid approach to emergy analysis is introduced and compared with conventional emergy analysis using life cycles of corn ethanol and gasoline as examples. Emergy and transformity data from the hybrid approach are similar to those from conventional emergy analysis, indicating the usefulness of the proposed approach. In addition, this work proposes the metric of return on emergy investment for assessing product alternatives with the same utility such as transportation fuels. The proposed approach and data may be used easily via web-based software.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

静电除尘器的粉尘非稳态收集过程

为了全面揭示电除尘器粉尘非稳态收集过程,建立完整的非稳态静电收尘理论,根据静电学基本原理,研究了极板粉尘层电荷导人、积累、释放的过程,推导出随粉尘层厚度增长而改变的动态收尘电场强度计算公式,进而得到荷电粒子动态驱进速度公式,最终形成静电除尘非稳态收集理论.研究结果表明,在静电收尘过程中,粒子驱进速度与粉尘比电阻、工作电压、粉尘层厚度等多种因素有关;随粉尘比电阻的升高,收尘效率下降,当供电电压为最佳工作电压时收尘效率最高.针对不同比电阻粉尘进行了多项实验研究,实验结果与理论研究结果吻合.非稳态静电收尘理论成功地解释了实际静电收尘过程中与传统静电收尘理论相矛盾的地方,为静电除尘器的设计及其运行参数的选取提供了更为科学的理论基础.     

铸造废砂／废地膜／粘附土三元复合体系的研究

通过X射线衍射分析、红外光谱分析、热分析、电镜及能谱分析、图像分析,可以判断废旧地膜上粘附土的主要矿物质是结晶二氧化硅（粉粒级石英）,它们与聚合物基废弃物复合材料中作为填料的铸造石英砂的性状类同。废旧地膜可以不经清洗,直接与铸造废砂制备复合材料,这可大大降低复合材料的加工成本。这种复合材料实际上是由基体PE、粘附土中大量的SiO2和铸造石英砂SiO2组成的三元复合体系。     

综合防尘技术在开元公司的应用

主要介绍了采煤机高压引射降尘系统、液压支架自动喷雾、粉尘浓度在线检测超限自动喷雾等综合防尘技术在开元公司矿井中的应用。通过对降尘系统效果监测和分析,降尘效率达到84．1％,降尘效果明显,改善了作业场所的劳动卫生条件。     

菏泽市交通噪声环境污染原因及防治

根据菏泽市城区历年道路交通噪声监测结果,分析评价其环境质量状况、污染原因,并提出对策建议。     

经济增长、市场化改革与土地违法

在当前中国经济快速增长和市场化改革逐步推进的过程中,始终面临着较为严重的土地违法问题;土地违法行为的主体不仅包括企事业单位和令人,更涉及各级地方政府以及农村集体组织.为深入了解经济增长与市场化改革对不同主体土地违法行为的影响,本文进行了初步的理论探讨,并运用全国层面的统计数据开展了相应的实证分析.结果表明,随着经济增长速度的加快,政府和企业的土地违法面积均显著增加;而土地市场化水平的提高则能有效减少土地违法的案件数.进一步地,经济增长和市场化改革对各级政府以及企事业单位、个人和农村集体组织土地违法行为的影响也存在一定的差异.本文的研究也指出,为有效控制土地违法行为的扩大,中国政府仍需采取转变经济增长方式、稳步推进市场化改革、引导企事业单位有序用地和不断完善土地督察制度等措施.