中国西北地区近47a日照时数的气候变化特征

利用中国西北地区135个测站1961—2007年1—12月日照时数资料,采用EOF、REOF、趋势分析、Mann-Kendall分析、相关分析等方法,分析了47 a来西北地区日照时数的时空分布特征及其变化规律。结果表明:西北地区的日照时数从东南向西北减少,甘青新交界区是西北地区日照的高值区。冬季日照最少,夏季最多,春季多于秋季。西北地区大部分地方日照时数显著减少,全区平均减少速率为19.92 h/10 a,1980年发生突变。新疆西南部和青海南部日照时灵敏有明显增多趋势,甘南—陇中—宁南—陇东—陕中日照时数不显著增多。将西北地区日照时数分为7个不同类型区域:即西北地区东部区、新疆中北部区、新疆西南区、海西北高原区、祁连山区、青南高原和河西走廊区。西北地区东部和新疆中北部的日照时数为单峰型,河西走廊、祁连山区、新疆西南部的日照时数呈双峰型分布,青海高原的日照时数呈三峰型分布。在气候变暖的背景下,西北地区相对湿度增加,云量增多,是造成大部分地方日照减少的主要原因。     

Water budget and the consequent duration of canopy carbon gain in a teak plantation in a dry tropical region: Analysis using a soil–plant–air continuum multilayer model

A soil–plant–air continuum multilayer model was used to numerically simulate canopy net assimilation (A_n), evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in a deciduous teak plantation in a dry tropical climate of northern Thailand to examine the influence of soil drought on A_n. The timings of leaf flush and the end of the canopy duration period (CDP) were also investigated from the perspective of the temporal positive carbon gain. Two numerical experiments with different seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) were carried out using above-canopy hydrometeorological data as input data. The first experiment involved seasonally varying LAI estimated based on time-series of radiative transmittance through the canopy, and the second experiment applied an annually constant LAI. The first simulation captured the measured seasonal changes in soil surface moisture; the simulated transpiration agreed with seasonal changes in heat pulse velocity, corresponding to the water use of individual trees, and the simulated A_n became slightly negative. However, in the second simulation, A_n became negative in the dry season because the decline in stomatal conductance due to severe soil drought limited the assimilation, and the simultaneous increase in leaf temperature increased dark respiration. Thus, these experiments revealed that the leaflessness in the dry season is reasonable for carbon gain and emphasized the unfavorable soil water status for carbon gain in the dry season. Examining the duration of positive A_n (DPA) in the second simulation showed that the start of the longest DPA (LDPA) in a year approached the timing of leaf flush in the teak plantation after the spring equinox. On the other hand, the end appeared earlier than that of all CDPs. This result is consistent with the sap flow stopping earlier than the complete leaf fall, implying that the carbon assimilation period ends before the completion of defoliation. The model sensitivity analysis in the second simulation suggests that a smaller LAI and slower maximum rate of carboxylation likely extend the LDPA because soil water from the surface to rooting depth is maintained longer at levels adequate for carbon gain by decreased canopy transpiration. The experiments also suggest that lower soil hydraulic conductivity and deeper rooting depth can postpone the end of the LDPA by increasing soil water retention and the soil water capacity, respectively.     

突发事故危害期估算模式研究

针对大气环境突发事故造成的危害,在高斯扩散模式基础上,引入危害半径变化与时间及危害期变化与横风向距离呈线性关系的假设,得出危险源附近各处受危险源突发事故危害的危害时间长短（危害期）一系列定量估算公式,使用方便,结果精确,为环境风险评价提供了有效的工具,可广泛应用于环境风险评价与管理、风险工程设计、风险责任保险等各个领域与事故应急计划制定、事故抢险工作实施.     

Estimation of daily sunshine duration using support vector machines

Although sunshine duration (SD) is one of the most frequently measured meteorological parameters, there is a lack of measurements in some parts of the world. Hence, it should be estimated accurately for areas where no reliable measurement is possible. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the potential of support vector machine (SVM) approach for estimating daily SD. For this purpose, three different kernels of SVM, such as linear, polynomial, and radial basis function (RBF), were used. Different combinations of five related meteorological parameters, namely cloud cover, maximum temperature (T_max), minimum temperature (T_min), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS), and one astronomic parameter, day length, were considered as the inputs of the models, and the output was obtained as daily SD. Simulated values of the models were compared with ground measured values, and concluded that the usage of the SVM-RBF estimator with combination of all input attributes produced the best results. The coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and mean absolute error were found to be 0.8435, 1.5105 h, and 1.0771 h, respectively, for the pooled four-year daily data set of 14 stations in Turkey. It was also deduced that accuracy increased as the number of attributes increased and the major contribution to this came from RH as compared with T_max, T_min, and WS. This study has shown that the SVM methodology can be a good alternative for conventional and artificial neural network methods for estimating daily SD.     

Age-related differences in effects of non-driving related tasks on takeover performance in automated driving

Introduction: During SAE level 3 automated driving, the driver’s role changes from active driver to fallback-ready driver. Drowsiness is one of the factors that may degrade driver’s takeover performance. This study aimed to investigate effects of non-driving related tasks (NDRTs) to counter driver’s drowsiness with a Level 3 system activated and to improve successive takeover performance in a critical situation. A special focus was placed on age-related differences in the effects. Method: Participants of three age groups (younger, middle-aged, older) drove the Level 3 system implemented in a high-fidelity motion-based driving simulator for about 30 min under three experiment conditions: without NDRT, while watching a video clip, and while switching between watching a video clip and playing a game. The Karolinska Sleepiness Scale and eyeblink duration measured driver drowsiness. At the end of the drive, the drivers had to take over control of the vehicle and manually change the lane to avoid a collision. Reaction time and steering angle variability were measured to evaluate the two aspects of driving performance. Results: For younger drivers, both single and multiple NDRT engagements countered the development of driver drowsiness during automated driving, and their takeover performance was equivalent to or better than their performance without NDRT engagement. For older drivers, NDRT engagement did not affect the development of drowsiness but degraded takeover performance especially under the multiple NDRT engagement condition. The results for middle-aged drivers fell at an intermediate level between those for younger and older drivers. Practical Applications: The present findings do not support general recommendations of NDRT engagement to counter drowsiness during automated driving. This study is especially relevant to the automotive industry’s search for options that will ensure the safest interfaces between human drivers and automation systems.     

Impact of Temporal Resolution of Flow‐Duration Curve on Sediment Load Estimation1

Chen, Li, Rina Schumer, Anna Knust, and William Forsee, 2011. Impact of Temporal Resolution of Flow‐Duration Curve on Sediment Load Estimation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 145‐155. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00602.x Abstract: Estimates of a channel’s annual sediment transport capacity typically incorporate annualized flow‐duration curves. Average daily flow data, commonly used to develop flow‐duration curves, may not adequately describe sediment‐transporting flows in arid and semiarid ephemeral streams. In this study, we examined impacts of varied temporal resolution flow data on annual sediment load estimation. We derived flow‐duration curves for eight sites in the Southwestern United States based on both 15‐min and daily‐averaged flow data. We then estimated sediment loads for both flow‐duration curves using the Sediment Impact Analysis Method, implemented in HEC‐RAS. When average daily flow is used to generate flow‐duration curves, sediment load estimation is lower by up to an order of magnitude. This trend is generally unaffected by uncertainty associated with sediment particle size or hydraulic roughness. The ratio of sediment loads estimated by 15‐min versus daily‐averaged flow‐duration curves is strongly correlated with channel slope, being greater on steep‐slope channels. Sediment loads estimated by the two types of flow‐duration curves are closely correlated, suggesting possible relationships for improving predictions when high‐temporal resolution data are unavailable. Results also suggest that the largest flow contributes significantly to total sediment load, and thus will greatly impact ephemeral stream geomorphology in arid and semiarid regions.     

Drinking water production by ultrafiltration of Songhuajiang River with PAC adsorption

In recent years, membrane ultrafiltration （UF） of surface water for drinking water treatment has become a more attractive technology worldwide as a possible alternative treatment to conventional clarification. To evaluate the performance of ultrafiltration membranes for treatment of surface water in North China, a 48-m^2 low pressure hollow fiber membrane ultrafiltration pilot plant was constructed. Ultrafiltration was operated in cross-flow and with powdered activated carbon （PAC） adsorption. Turbidity was almost completely removed to less than 0.2 NTU （below Chinese standard 1 NTU）. It was found that PAC addition enhanced organic matter removal. The combined process of PAC/UF allowed to 41% removal of CODMn, 46% removal of DOC and 57% decrease in UV254 absorbance. The elimination of particles, from average 12000/ml in the raw water to approximately 15/ml in the permeated, was observed. When PAC concentration was below 30 mg/L, backwashing could recovery the membrane flux with backwash interval/backwashing duration of 1/30.     

山西省近50年日照时数时空变化特征研究

根据山西省62个地面气象站50a（1959—2008）的月日照时数系列数据,对全省13照时数的时空变化特征进行了较系统分析。结果表明,（1）近50a山西省年平均日照时数呈显著减少趋势（-65．40h-（10a^-1）,且最近26a减少更为明显。（2）春夏秋冬4季日照时数均呈减少趋势,其中夏秋冬3季日照时数显著减少,尤以夏季和冬季减少最为突出（分别为-28．06h·（10a）^-1和-23．45h·（10a）^-1）;（3）除4月日照时数略有增加之外,其余11个月的日照时数均呈减少趋势,其中7个月（即1月、6月、7月、8月、9月、10月和12月）日照时数呈显著减少趋势,且以6月减少最为突出（-14．40h·（10a）^-1）。（4）在全省17个综合治理规划地区中,16个地区的日照时数呈显著减少趋势,主要以忻定盆地、太原盆地、临汾盆地和运城盆地（即第6、第7和第8地区）减少最为明显。     

寿险公司利率风险度量的持续期模型及运用

在当今金融环境下,利率风险是寿险公司面临的主要风险,而风险度量是规避利率风险首要解决的问题。介绍寿险公司利率风险度量的核心方法-持续期模型及相关理论,进一步分析持续期与凸度在寿险公司利率风险控制中的应用,得出最安全的状况是两者的完全匹配的结论。提出完善寿险业利率风险管理可供选择的一系列对策和措施,选择先进的度量模型,最大限度地规避风险以促进我国寿险业发展。