广东省粮食供需时空格局

粮食供需差真实反映粮食供需的状况,对于保障粮食安全有着重要意义.研究以广东省为例,利用1994-2009年粮食生产及常住人口数据,构建空间集聚-扩散度和贡献指标,分析粮食供需差的空间分异,并采用格兰杰因果检验探析城市化与粮食供需差的因果关系.研究结果表明,1994-2009年,广东省的粮食供需差总体呈现上升的趋势和扩散的特征,粮食短缺从局部现象转变为普遍现象;21个地级市的粮食供需差趋于平稳、缓慢增长,且增长差异呈现变小的趋势.主导粮食需求和高贡献率地级市的空间分布特征分别是集聚→扩散→集聚与扩散;粮食供需差贡献存在显著的空间差异性,可以将所有的地级市划分为高增长指数、高贡献率,高增长指数、低贡献率,低增长指数、高贡献率,低增长指数、低贡献率4种不同的类型;而格兰杰因果检验表明,在城市化水平较低地区,城市化水平的提升将直接引起人均粮食供需差的变大.     

城市供水管网在地震时的连通可靠性分析

考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态.把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析.由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节...     

供电设备电气误操作的防止及应对措施

着重介绍了电气设备误操作的"五防"及应对措施.从阐述电力系统供电设备电气防止误操作的重要性人手,引人"五防"概念,诠释了防误操作装置八点基本要求,列举了目前具有防止电气误操作的器件,并针对"五防"的内涵,提出了操作性强的五条相应预防措施,在文章后段结合自身的工作实践,从八个层面详述了工作体会,特别提出了电力系统严格遵守避免误操作事故的五条禁令,从而探究出从实践上杜绝电气设备误操作事故发生的有效途径.     

Evaluation of alternative water sources for commercial buildings: A case study in Brisbane,Australia

Commercial buildings are central to cities and contribute significantly to the urban demand for natural resources, including freshwater. Green building benchmarking tools include more efficient water use as key indicator of sustainability. This paper explores options for substituting mains drinking water with an alternative, non-potable water source on a fit for purpose basis. The research findings are based on a monitoring study of a commercial building in Brisbane, Australia that is harvesting rainwater for meeting non-potable water demand. The results demonstrated that the system is only achieving moderate reliability in meeting demand due to operational problems. The case study analysis has highlighted the need to include validation and monitoring to ensure the system is operating as per design intent. The paper also investigates the potential of other local, non-potable water sources for high-rise commercial buildings, in particular air conditioning condensate and groundwater inflow to a basement wet well. The paper concludes by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of different local water sources which highlights the need to undertake a site specific investigation to identify a suitable alternative water source, which considers O&M complexity and the capacity of facilities management.     

Smart meters for enhanced water supply network modelling and infrastructure planning

To design water distribution network infrastructure, water utilities formulate daily demand profiles and peaking factors. However, traditional methods of developing such profiles and peaking factors, necessary to carry out water distribution network modelling, are often founded on a number of assumptions on how top-down bulk water consumption is attributed to customer connections and outdated demand information that does not reflect present consumption trends; meaning infrastructure is often unnecessarily overdesigned. The recent advent of high resolution smart water meters allows for a new novel methodology for using the continuous ‘big data’ generated by these meter fleets to create evidence-based water demand curves suitable for use in network models. To demonstrate the application of the developed method, high resolution water consumption data from households fitted with smart water meters were collected from the South East Queensland and Hervey Bay regions in Australia. Average day (AD), peak day (PD) and mean day maximum month (MDMM) demand curves, often used in water supply network modelling, were developed from the herein created methodology using both individual end-use level and hourly demand patterns from the smart meters. The resulting modelled water demand patterns for AD, PD and MDMM had morning and evening peaks occurring earlier and lower main peaks (AD: 12%; PD: 20%; MDMM: 33%) than the currently used demand profiles of the regions’ water utility. The paper concludes with a discussion on the implications of widespread smart water metering systems for enhanced water distribution infrastructure planning and management as well as the benefits to customers.     

长三角地区城市化对典型生态系统服务供需的影响

长三角地区快速城市化进程影响了生态系统服务供需的平衡关系,为实现长三角一体化高质量发展需要探究城市化对生态系统服务供需的影响。基于生态模型、Pearson相关性、随机森林、局部空间自相关等方法分析城市化和生态系统服务供需间的影响关系、敏感性与空间交互关系,提出生态管理措施。研究发现：2000—2018年间,长三角地区城市化综合水平上涨133.33%;各典型生态系统服务供需比均为正但均呈下降趋势,平均下降幅度22.39%;城市化对生态系统服务供需比具有显著的负向影响,2000—2018年间,影响强度平均上升82.34%;食物生产对人口城市化敏感性较强,碳储存和生境质量对经济城市化敏感性较强,水源涵养和PM_2.5去除则对空间城市化敏感性较强;城市化与生态系统服务供需比存在较大的空间错配性。由此建议将长三角地区划分为生态利用区、生态重构区、生态源地区和生态修复区,并结合城市化和生态系统服务供需特征提出生态优化管理措施。     

Socially optimal and fund-balanced advanced recycling fees and subsidies in a competitive forward and reverse supply chain

Advanced recycling fees (ARFs) and government subsidy fees are important for curtailing the consumption of new products and encouraging recycling and disposal of end-of-life (EOL) products. We introduce a model consisting of a leader (the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA) and two groups of followers (MIS firms and recyclers) consisting of manufacturers, importers and sellers, and recyclers which compete in both consuming and recycling markets. The EPA determines the ARFs paid by the MIS firms and the fees subsidizing recyclers to maximize the social welfare in closed-loop supply chains where the MIS firms and recyclers attempt to maximize their respective profit functions. To compare with current practice, we describe a conceptual fund balance model to determine the ARF and subsidy fee on the basis of the balance between total collected ARFs and expenditure of subsidies. Using numerical examples for the laptop computer market in Taiwan, we demonstrate that our results outperform the current practice.     

城市供水管网抗震功能可靠度分析

介绍了供水系统功能分析中的经验渗漏模型,在此基础上给出了一个新的改进算法。将建议模型与供水系统水力分析方法相结合,并引入一般结构分析中的一次二阶矩方法,提出了一类求解供水网络节点及系统功能可靠度的方法。对一典型供水管网进行了流分析,将建议模型计算所得结果与常规渗漏模型进行了比较,结果说明建议模型可行,计算结果合理可信。